Dry January typically refers to the challenge people take on to stay sober for the first month of the new year. For the New York Islanders, it has a different meaning. Their Dry January has seen little offense and few wins as the team slides in the standings.
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In January 2023, the Islanders went 4-8-3 and averaged 1.93 goals for per game. This season, they’ve gone 2-5-1 including their Jan. 16 loss to the Winnipeg Jets, and the offense once again looks hapless, averaging only 2.50 goals per game.
The Islanders are a mess, which raises questions about the roster both in the short and long term. Is head coach Lane Lambert the right person for the job? Do the Islanders need a firesale at the trade deadline? Should they buy in and double or even triple down on a core that can only go so far?
The Islanders have been here before (this month tends to bring out the worst in the team). However, some issues are fixable, while others require more work, and whatever the team can figure out will help them turn their season around.
Islanders’ Offense Must Pivot
The two-goal game by Anders Lee against the Jets showed the team’s offensive issues. He’s been one of the best finishers for years. The problem is with the rest of the roster – nobody else is getting to the dirty areas and finishing scoring chances near the net, and the only way Lee was going to contribute in that game was by scoring near the net.
The offense, while improved from previous seasons, has become too predictable. Opponents are aware of the Islanders’ top talent and their skill sets and prepare accordingly. On top of that, the offense becomes easier to stop depending on which skaters are on the ice. When Noah Dobson is on the blue line, they’ll respect his presence at the point, but otherwise, it’s easy to ignore a defenseman with the puck, knowing they don’t pose much of a chance to make an offensive impact.
The top line has carried the Islanders’ offense, with Bo Horvat and Mathew Barzal – the team’s 2024 All-Star selection – leading the way. But they have to also start playing in the dirty areas along with Lee to add an extra dimension to their game. The depth has taken a hit with Casey Cizikas out of the lineup, yet the Islanders have to find skaters who can step up on the third and fourth line to become reliable scorers, making this an ideal time for Oliver Wahlstrom to finally make his mark. The defensemen, aside from Dobson, must get pucks to the net with effective shots from the point.
Last season, the problem was that the offense lacked shooters. This season, they have the players to turn the unit around, and with a veteran-heavy roster, can they do it in the coming weeks?
Islanders Injuries, Penalties & System
It’s a recurring theme that when a few skaters go down with injury, the Islanders’ roster falls apart. Last season, the defense unraveled without Adam Pelech in the lineup, and this season, the absence of Pelech and Ryan Pulock has once again plagued the blue line. The injury to Cizikas has hurt the bottom six, with Hudson Fasching being asked to play fourth-line center, which is far from his strength. To make things worse, Semyon Varlamov has missed multiple weeks and won’t return until the team makes the trip back home, forcing Ilya Sorokin to start every game without rest.
There are two ways to look at these injuries. Either the roster hasn’t been built to withstand injuries, which is why it happens every season, or they are an inevitable part of the game, which causes the team to fall into a slump at some point. If the latter is correct (it’s the optimistic way to look at it), then the Islanders are in relatively good shape. When the core pieces come back, and the team is healthy down the stretch, they can start to pile up wins.
The bigger issue is discipline. It’s been an issue all season and has cost the Islanders often. In close games, the penalties add up, and the penalty kill hasn’t helped with a 72.59 percent success rate. Under former head coach Barry Trotz, they could hang their hat on disciplined play, and that can’t be said about this team, which leads to the next problem.
The Islanders have gone too far in one direction. Under Trotz, they were too slow, too defensive-minded, and struggled to establish an offensive zone presence. Now, they use their speed to the point that teams find easy scoring chances off mistakes or missed opportunities. The Islanders need to balance out the roster and also return to the style of play that got them to the playoffs a season ago. They don’t need to revert to the chip and chase but leaning into a slower game with good defense and forechecking will allow them to once again look like a playoff team.
Islanders Need A Spark
Last season, the Islanders entered the All-Star break with a 25-22-5 record and desperately needed a boost. They got it when general manager (GM) Lou Lamoriello acquired Horvat from the Vancouver Canucks. While Horvat struggled offensively, his strong play across the board helped the team sneak into the playoffs as a wild-card team. This season, they again need Lamoriello to make a splash.
The top-six forwards on the trade block are Jake Guentzel and Elias Lindholm. Both skaters will require a significant haul to land them, but either one will particularly address the needs of the offense. Likewise, a minor move to strengthen the defense would go a long way. Adding Robert Bortuzzo was to help turn the unit around, but he’s sidelined with an injury, so Lamoriello might have to make another move to strengthen the blue line, which has become a weakness.
Despite the struggles, the Islanders are oddly in a great position. A hot streak would have them back at the top of the Metropolitan Division, looking like contenders again. Earlier in the season, when the losses were piling up, the campaign seemed lost, and suddenly, a good stretch had them leap past multiple teams in the standings.