Shockingly, the New York Islanders are still alive in what has been mostly a disappointing season. When you add up the overtime losses, the team is eight games under .500. That said, they have found their way into a final Metropolitan Division spot thanks to a four-game winning streak. And if the season were to end today, the Carolina Hurricanes would play them in a seven-game series.
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If the Islanders were in the Western Conference, the season might already be over. Luckily, the ineptness of the teams ahead in the race, the Detroit Red Wings, Philadelphia Flyers, and Washington Capitals, has allowed New York to get back in a playoff position. They all have 83 points or less, while the worst Wild Card team in the Western Conference has 92 points.
The playoffs are still realistic – but the Islanders will still have to do their part – and that’s, of course, continue to win.
What Does the Number Look Like?
How many victories do they need, and what does their magic number look like? Well, The Hockey Writers examined the last eight full seasons and the points the last-seeded Wild Card team had at the end of each year to qualify for the postseason. In that span, the points ranged from 87 to 100.
If we take the median between those figures, it comes out to 93.5—so figure 94 points. Right now, the Islanders have 85 points, so they would need to win four of their last five games and one overtime loss to reach 95. Winning all five remaining would bring them to 95.
But that might not be realistic, and again, other teams in the race have been doing right by the Islanders by failing to win enough games. Going 3-2, or even 2-3 for 91 points or 89 points, respectively, might be enough. Plus, don’t forget about getting points for losing in overtime, which has been the Islanders’ specialty this season.
The remaining schedule features the first-place New York Rangers twice, two other divisional rivals in the New Jersey Devils and Pittsburgh Penguins, and the Montreal Canadiens.
What the Islanders Need to Do to Win
So, how do the Islanders put themselves in the best possible position to win the most games?
For one, it starts with their goaltending, which needs to outplay the opponent’s netminders. Star goaltender Ilya Sorokin has struggled with a .908 save percentage this season. On the bright side, Sorokin may have gained his starting job back thanks to his strong past two games, in which he registered .926 and .947 save percentages.
If not, Semyon Varlamov will need to get the job done. But he’s been very capable as of late. Not only did the Russian netminder get a shutout in the victory against the Nashville Predators, but in his several starts beforehand, the 35-year-old posted save percentages of .914, .929, .923, and .912. That’s not too bad for a backup.
The next part is special teams. Most probably accept by now that the penalty kill is an unmitigated disaster, ranking dead last in the NHL. So they must stay out of the box because it’s been brutal. However, the powerplay needs to improve, as 20th in the league isn’t good enough. Perhaps the Islanders should look to give Mike Reilly an opportunity on the first unit. Interestingly, in just 84:42 of power play time this season, the 30-year-old has the most shots on goal among Islanders defensemen with 19, according to Natural Stat Trick.
And most importantly, their top and highest-paid players must be at their best. Sorokin is obvious, but defenseman Noah Dobson is another important player who has struggled in recent games. At one point, the Summerside, PEI native was in the Norris Trophy conversation – but has cooled off recently. Dobson has just posted three points in the last 11 games. On a positive note, he scored the game-winning goal against the Columbus Blue Jackets on Thursday and again on Saturday versus the Predators. If he can build off those games, it would be critical for the Islanders’ push to the playoffs.
It would also be nice if Anders Lee could find the back of the net. The captain has just one goal in his past seven games. Yes, his underlying metrics have been solid, but 19 goals in 77 games just aren’t cutting it for his $7 million cap hit.
Given the crazy swings the year has taken, it shouldn’t be a surprise if the Islanders season comes down to the last game. To make things interesting, a new playoff contender has joined the race, the Penguins, who now have 83 points after winning four straight games.
But all the Islanders have to worry about is winning. If they do that, you have to believe the results needed from the other teams in the hunt will come.