The New York Islanders are in a position that no organization in the NHL ever wants to be in. They aren’t good enough to contend for the Stanley Cup – nor are they bad enough to be a lottery team to land the first overall pick. It’s mediocrity at its finest.
Related: 4 Trades the Islanders Must Avoid This Offseason
While president and general manager Lou Lamoriello has an extra second-round pick to work with for the upcoming 2024 NHL Draft, more work is needed. Ideally, the 81-year-old should flip the asset to improve the roster for 2024-25, while keeping his first-round pick, which will come in handy to fix the weak prospect pool.
Moves to Make
The Islanders need to make a big move and soon, as the draft kicks off in 10 days, and free agency begins on July 1. But the first thing is dealing with the just over $5 million available in cap space, according to CapFriendly. They have a few restricted free agents including Kyle MacLean and Simon Holmstrom. Making a big move won’t be possible without moving a contract.
One player who could be wearing a different uniform next season is Jean-Gabriel Pageau. Hockey insider and president of hockey content for Daily Faceoff, Frank Seravalli, pegged the 31-year-old 13th on his trade bait list. Pageau, who posted 33 points in 82 games this season, has two years left at a $5 million cap hit. While centers have value in the market, it’s hard to see a team trading an asset for him unless the Islanders retain some salary. If not, maybe Lamoriello will be able to get rid of the full cap hit by attaching one of their 2024 second-round picks in a potential trade.
Going to market on Brock Nelson shouldn’t be out of the question either. Not only will the top-six center be easier to move, but the organization should be able to get more assets back in a deal and clear $6 million in cap space. It may not be something the front office wants to do – but it might be necessary to move forward. Acquiring $11 million in cap space would be huge and would allow them to be in on all the prominent figures on the market.
If by trade, the dream scenario is Mitch Marner. It’s unclear if the Toronto Maple Leafs would move on from the star winger – but the front office might be under pressure to move a core piece after another early playoff exit. One of the Islanders’ top four defensemen could be of interest to the Maple Leafs, whether that’s Adam Pelech, Ryan Pulock, and of course a younger piece like Noah Dobson. Marner carries a cap hit at just under $11 million for 2024-25.
Some other scoring wingers in the market that could be game-changing for the Islanders include Pavel Buchnevich and Nikolaj Ehlers. The latter of the two options brings an elite speed dynamic that the team lacks on the wing. Buchnevich has become one of the better playmakers in the NHL. In two of the last three seasons, the Russian winger has hovered above a point per game.
If the Islanders fail to land a big piece before July 1, Lamoriello must be active in free agency. The two biggest fish are Steven Stamkos and Jake Guentzel, both of which can play the wing. Stamkos in particular would improve the Islanders’ subpar power play. He averaged 0.44 points per game on the unit with the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2023-24, according to data from sports analysis website Bettor In Green. For context, Mathew Barzal for the Islanders only averaged 0.31 power play points per game this season.
The organization must land an elite piece and not lower-tier options such as Tyler Toffoli or David Perron. Guentzel and Stamkos score at an elite level, and both have multiple 40-plus-goal seasons on their resumes.
Why the Islanders Are Stuck in Mediocrity Now
While there’s a way out of mediocrity, the Islanders have repeatedly proved that they need a major upgrade. The evidence is supported by the past three seasons, which have resulted in missing the playoffs once and winning a combined three postseason games.
During his reign as Islanders boss, Lamoriello handed out various long-term contracts to veteran players; several of whom have underperformed and not lived up to their cap figures. Along with Pageau, this includes Anders Lee, Casey Cizikas, and Scott Mayfield.
Also, a dozen contracts on the books include either no-move or no-trade clauses. That’s handcuffed the organization and makes trading players tougher. Plus, the Islanders aren’t exactly booming with young players. Ruslan Iskhakov, the one prospect in the system that has the potential to develop into a difference-maker, hasn’t been given a clear path to the NHL and could leave for the Kontinental Hockey League (KHL). The Islanders badly need to keep their 2024 first-round pick and add a legit prospect.
But at the same time, the front office could look at adding a big piece that would help them for 2024-25. It needs to be elite talent, whether that’s acquired in free agency or trade. Until a difference maker arrives for the Islanders – they will continue to rot in mediocrity and waste time. Free agency is now less than two weeks away, and Lamoriello needs to act soon.
