The New York Islanders have a lineup that has become rather predictable. Mathew Barzal is on the top line, Brock Nelson leads the other top-six line, Jean-Gabriel Pageau centers his line, and the fourth line has been known as the “Identity Line” with minimal changes there.
Related: 4 Takeaways From New York Islanders’ 3-2 Win vs Buffalo Sabres
In the Oct. 14, 3-2 win over the Buffalo Sabres on opening night, a surprising change was made by head coach Lane Lambert. He moved Anders Lee, the team’s captain and one of his best scorers, to the Pageau line. In Lee’s place, Simon Holmstrom was moved to the top line to play alongside Barzal and Bo Horvat. The decision backfired.
While the Islanders won the game, the Pageau line failed to find the back of the net and while the top line created plenty of scoring chances, Holmstrom was a nonfactor in the game. The question is why Lambert decided to move Lee off the top line for the first game of the season. More importantly, is this change a long-term one, and if so is it sustainable? The explanation for line movement can start with Lee who suddenly isn’t playing in the top six.
A Possible Lee Demotion
Whether the line change is temporary or not, Lambert has sent the message that Lee must earn his spot on the top line. Just because he’s the captain and has 240 career goals, his spot in the lineup isn’t a given. Like a healthy scratch, Lee was moved down in the lineup and will have to work his way back to the top line.
The idea of demoting Lee is a nonstarter considering his track record. He’s been one of the best skaters on the Islanders and last season scored 28 goals and 22 assists, making him one of the bright spots in the lineup. That said, he is 33 years old and Lambert could view him as a skater who is starting to decline. Playing him on the Pageau line limits his role and with less ice time, he can play with greater bursts. Instead of tiring out with longer shifts and more responsibility, he can impact the offense with quality time on the ice.
Considering Lee is an upgrade over Holmstrom, who is still looking to find a rhythm at the NHL level, a demotion doesn’t appear like the main reason for Lambert’s decision. It might not even be one of the minor reasons for the line change but instead, the move was made with the other forwards in mind.
Holmstrom is a Placeholder For Wahlstrom
The Islanders were cautious with Oliver Wahlstrom as he didn’t suit up for the opening night game. He was ready to play but recovering from a knee injury that he suffered last season, the team chose to make him a healthy scratch. Wahlstrom is one of their dynamic young skaters and it’s only a matter of time before he’s back in the lineup.
The role that Wahlstrom has in the forward unit is unknown. His shot and playmaking ability on the wing make him a viable option on the top line to play alongside Barzal and Horvat. However, heading into this season, the expectation was that Lambert would play him on the Pageau line and keep him in a decreased role. Wahlstrom has only averaged 12:04 of ice time in his career and the leap to the top line is a big one for him, making the Pageau line a more likely destination, especially early in the season.
If Wahlstrom ends up on the Horvat line, the decision to play Lee on the Pageau line makes more sense. This keeps chemistry between the lines and allows Wahlstrom to step right in and replace Holmstrom when he’s ready. The opening night lineup was a headscratcher but it isn’t confusing if Lambert is willing to give his 24-year-old skater a chance to thrive alongside Barzal and Horvat.
Lambert Wants These Line Combinations
The lines didn’t work out in the first game of the season but with time, it’s possible that Lambert’s decision will pay off. He’s confident in Holmstrom’s ability and the 22-year-old skater will eventually find a place on the top line. Holmstrom showed his passing skills in the opening night victory, helping create a handful of scoring chances but he failed to put the puck on the net with zero shots on the goal. With Horvat centering his line and Barzal on the other wing, he’ll have plenty of opportunities to score but he must be willing to shoot the puck.
Lee on the Pageau line meanwhile keeps the forward unit balanced. Lee is a finisher who waits for the puck to find him in the slot or near the crease and he takes advantage. He can thrive from Pageau’s passes and allow the later line to thrive offensively. Instead of the Islanders’ offense having a potent top six and then a drop-off, they will have three potent scoring lines to keep the opposition on their heels.
The Islanders are a team built on their depth. They don’t have a top-heavy roster or the star power that can carry them (outside of Ilya Sorokin in the net, he’s carried them time and time again). They win games with four potent forward lines and three defensive pairings willing the team to victory. Lee moving off the top line is a move that reflects this mentality where the talent is spread across the forward unit.
Will These Lines Last?
For the time being, specifically, this week’s slate of games, the lineup looks like it will remain the same. However, if the offense struggles, Lee will move back to the top line in all likelihood. The Islanders scored three goals in their first game so the issue isn’t prevalent at the moment and until the concerns are obvious, the lines will remain the same.
The top line needs a finisher who can benefit from the two playmakers who are creating a surplus of scoring chances. Barzal and Horvat combined for 11 shots against the Sabres and provided plenty of second-chance shots for the other skaters on the ice. Holmstrom isn’t the type of skater capable of taking advantage of those opportunities, at least not yet. Wahlstrom has a high ceiling and is betting on himself this season with a one-year contract but he’s a shooter and not a finisher. Lee is one and can thrive in that role on the top line.
