Steven Stamkos is arguably the best player that’s set to hit free agency – and the New York Islanders need to do everything in their power to sign him.
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In the past three seasons, the team has won a combined three playoff games. To make matters worse, the organization is left with the NHL’s worst prospect pool after not having made a first-round selection since 2019. But the Islanders will have a chance to retool their team to the point where they can become a legitimate threat in the Eastern Conference. And they might be able to do it without surrendering their 2024 first-round selection. It all starts with Stamkos in free agency.
What Stamkos Would Fix for the Islanders
First and most obvious, the Markham, Ontario native would be a big name that would energize the Islanders fanbase. The former Mark Messier Leadership Award winner ranks second in goals scored in the past 10 years, only behind Alex Ovechkin. Stamkos is simply one of the best scorers of this generation and would immediately become the Islanders’ second-best player on the roster only behind Mathew Barzal.
But it’s where he scores his goals too. On the power play, Stamkos in the 2023-24 regular season was tied for third in goals with 19. It’s something the Islanders unit, which ranked 19th, can use. He can let his elite shot rip from the top left circle on the man advantage, while Barzal uses his skating ability to make plays happen. Getting a legit triggerman like Stamkos could give the Islanders a top 10 power play unit next season, making the unit a difference-maker.
As the power play stands currently, Anders Lee acts as the net-front presence, Barzal is the playmaker, and Kyle Palmieri is the bumper option. That’s just okay. Of course, Stamkos would be a game-changer – but the power play would be even better if Noah Dobson could turn into a quarterback.
Obstacles Facing the Islanders in Pulling it Off
Still, work needs to be done from the front office to make it happen. This includes freeing up cap space, which is currently around $2 million, with two goaltenders, six defensemen (assuming Scott Mayfield is healthy), and 10 forwards, according to CapFriendly. Stamkos is projected to get $8.9 million in average annual value (AAV) on the open market, The Athletic estimates. However, that could go down to as low as $8.1 million, depending on the term (from ‘Steven Stamkos contract projection: How much would it take to land the Lightning star UFA?,’ The Athletic, May 6, 2024).
So, president and general manager Lou Lamoriello will need to get creative. Brock Nelson has one year left with the Islanders at $6 million. The 82-year-old shouldn’t have a problem moving that contract if he wants to. There’s always demand for top-six centers, and Lamoriello could probably get at least a first-round pick and a prospect in return. But it gets a little trickier for other players like Jean-Gabriel Pageau, who has two more seasons left on his deal at $5 million AAV. The 31-year-old bottom-six player will be tougher to move – but centers always have value. Still, Lamoriello will likely have to retain at least some salary to clear cap space. The maximum 50 percent would give the Islanders $2.5 million in relief.
If not, perhaps the Islanders can find a taker for Casey Cizikas, who has three years left on his deal at a $2.5 million AAV cap hit. This would be another scenario where the front office may have to retain salary.
Another thing to consider is that Long Island hasn’t been the most attractive place to play in the NHL. It’s far from the worst, but the original six franchises and other major cities have the advantage. It could be part of the reason why the Islanders whiffed in recent history on marquee free-agent names such as Nazem Kadri, Johnny Gaudreau, and Artemi Panarin.
Stamkos Worth the Risk
Unless you are signing a superstar in his 20s, acquiring a free agent with term always comes with risk. Deals could get really ugly fast – as the Islanders have experienced plenty of times before with players like Andrew Ladd. Stamkos can still score at an elite level, but he will turn 35 before next season begins. There’s a chance, given his age and finding a new home, that his game falls off.
But even then, it’s a gamble the Islanders need to take. The damage has already been done, and Lamoriello has handed out too many long-term deals to non-superstar players. The Islanders are built to win now, and they need to act like it. Acquiring Bo Horvat via trade in 2022-23 isn’t enough. A retool of the core group is needed to take a step forward.
The Islanders need to take care of their cap situation so they can make a competitive offer for Stamkos. If it takes a term of four or five years to land the former first overall pick, the organization needs to do it. Adding another contract with some term, won’t make a huge difference. Even if Stamkos gives the Islanders only a couple of elite years, it will be worth it.
If that fails, the Islanders may need to look at the trade market. A home run move would be finding a way to pry Mitch Marner away from the Toronto Maple Leafs. But it will cost the Islanders assets.
A power play threat is desperately needed to move forward. The Islanders can’t continue selling the fan base that the same group of core players can get the job done, considering how the past three years have gone. They will need to convince Stamkos that he is the missing ingredient to becoming a true Stanley Cup contender – which won’t be easy. But the front office needs to be all-in on the move.