The Toronto Maple Leafs’ season has come to an end following their Game 7 loss to the Boston Bruins. In what was a tight series turned into a Game 7 thriller that saw David Pastrnak score the series winner in overtime. As the offseason begins for Toronto, is it time to see the Core Four split up? According to Elliotte Freidman it is, and could Mitch Marner be the odd man out?
Would Marner Fit With the Islanders?
The New York Islanders‘ only realistic path to acquiring one of the core four players would be through Marner since Auston Matthews and William Nylander are both beginning their contract extensions next season, and John Tavares is obviously not going to return to Long Island. If Marner were to be traded, it would also need to be to a team he desires since he has a full no-trade clause. Nobody knows what he is thinking right now, but the reality is he likely has other teams ranked above the Islanders in preference.
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If Marner were to waive his no-trade clause, the Islanders would also need to find a way to get him to fit under the salary cap. Assuming no other major moves are made, they would need to shed close to $12 million to bring in Marner’s $10,903,000 salary. While this is possible, it is going to be hard to pull off.
Clearing this cap space would begin with Jean-Gabriel Pageau. A lot of teams will have interest, but the difficulty will begin with his $5 million salary. One team that could be a fit is the Seattle Kraken. In this hypothetical, the Islanders will be trading Pageau, prospect Isaiah George, and a 2025 third-round selection for Kailer Yamamoto. From there, Yamamoto will be signing a one-year contract at $1.25 million. From there, the Islanders will need to shed Anders Lee’s $7 million salary. This could be done by shipping Lee, alongside the 50th overall pick and other smaller assets to the Chicago Blackhawks for future considerations.
From here, the Islanders will have close to $15 million in salary, enough to add Marner and a cheap replacement for Pageau. The difficulty begins with acquiring Marner. In this hypothetical, Marner would have a lot of leverage in deciding where to go. However, Toronto would not move him for scraps, so it would need to be a pretty enticing offer.
The Islanders’ best asset is their 18th overall pick, but that is not of much use to Toronto. However, they could flip the draft selection in another trade to acquire a player of value. Toronto will need more than the draft choice, likely preferring a roster player over future assets. This will be difficult for the Islanders since that player would likely be a defenseman, either Adam Pelech or Ryan Pulock, both of whom have no-trade clauses. Given the Islanders’ better defense on the right side than the left, Pulock would be involved in the trade.
The draft selection and Pulock should be the bulk of the package and Toronto could hash out the rest of the deal, whether it be a prospect like Calle Odelius or Matthew Maggio, another draft selection in the future season, or another roster player like Simon Holmstrom or Oliver Wahlstrom. From here, the Islanders would need to fill Pulock’s void, likely targeting free-agent defensemen such as Matt Roy or Dylan DeMelo. To fill Lee and Pageau’s spots, they could target Matt Duchene and Jack Roslovic.
Is It Realistic?
The main message from all of this should be a trade is not realistic. Acquiring Marner would require a few other deals that are all unrealistic, and Toronto is likely to receive better offers than what the Islanders could cough up if they did decide to shop Marner. As well, he would likely prefer to play for a team with a better chance of winning a Stanley Cup than the Islanders.
If the Islanders are looking to add another elite player, the more realistic part of the Marner discussion may be shedding cap space by trading Pageau and even Lee. If the Islanders can manipulate the salary cap in a way to shed close to $10 million, they could target top free agents such as Sam Reinhart, Jake Guentzel, or Steven Stamkos. However, considering their biggest free agent signing in recent seasons was Semyon Varlamov in 2019, bringing in one of these top stars is not very realistic.
This issue may be a result of other teams preferring to play in different locations or on better teams, but the Islanders could try to enhance their odds of landing one of Reinhart or Guentzel by trading for their signing rights to gain the ability to offer an eight-year term on their next contract. For now, the Islanders can only watch the playoffs unfold for Reinhart and Guentzel, but they too are names to keep an eye on.
The biggest takeaway from all of this is how it is just a dream for Islanders fans to land Marner. It is a fun idea and could work by an armchair general manager, but it is just completely unrealistic. Considering Marner has just one season left on his contract, any trade would be similar to that of the Jonathan Huberdeau to the Calgary Flames deal rather than the proposed deal stated above. However, you never know what is going on in the head of a general manager, so anything is possible heading into the offseason.