On the latest episode of 32 Thoughts, Elliotte Friedman discussed Winnipeg Jets’ prospect and University of Michigan star, Rutger McGroarty. Friedman states he has heard McGroarty’s name in trade talks due to his decision to return to Michigan for his junior season. While this is unlikely to amount to a trade, the New York Islanders must join the McGroarty sweepstakes.
Understanding College & NHL Signing Rules
Hockey fans recall the surprising trade of Cutter Gauthier, the Philadelphia Flyers’ fifth overall pick in 2022, to the Anaheim Ducks at the beginning of the 2023-24 season. Gauthier was the best player for the Boston College Eagles, so seeing him get moved was not on anyone’s radar. However, it came out following the trade Gauthier had no desire to sign in Philadelphia, so his signing rights were shipped to Anaheim.
Related: Islanders’ Perfect 2024 Offseason Trade Target Is Nikolaj Ehlers
Gauthier was able to force this trade because of the NHL collective bargaining agreement’s rules regarding college players. Essentially, drafted prospects are able to complete their college seasons and sign with any NHL team, regardless of their draft status. Flyers’ 2018 first-round pick Jay O’Brien did not sign with the club, resulting in draft compensation of a second-round pick. Gauthier was traded to the Ducks with fear of the same outcome and McGroarty may follow suit.
Who is McGroarty?
If McGroarty’s name sounds familiar, it is for good reason. He was the 14th pick by the Jets in the 2022 NHL Draft and has spent the past two seasons in Ann Arbour, scoring 34 goals and 91 points in 75 games. He also represented the United States at the 2024 World Junior Championship as captain, scoring five goals and nine points in seven games en route to winning gold.
McGroarty is just 20 years old, so his potential is limitless. The Lincoln, Nebraska native is a well-rounded prospect with strong playmaking, creativity, shooting talent, and work ethic. He has a strong two-way game and is NHL-ready. If traded, it will likely be to play him in the NHL to start the 2024-25 season.
Why the Islanders Should Target McGroarty
Every NHL team will be interested in McGroarty, but perhaps none will be as strong of a fit as the Islanders. He is left-handed, NHL-ready, capable of playing the left wing and center, works hard, and is young. They desperately lack all of those qualities, and McGroarty’s entry-level contract will be a massive bonus to the Islanders who have minimal salary cap room.
If acquired, McGroarty would immediately join the Islanders’ top six. Seeing him on the second line alongside Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri would make the most sense. Nelson and Palmieri were a dynamic duo last season who drove offense by capitalizing on scoring chances, so adding a playmaker like McGroarty would take the line to the next level.
It would also be possible to see McGroarty join Mat Barzal and Bo Horvat on the top line. The Islanders have struggled to find Barzal consistent linemates throughout his career on Long Island, and Horvat finally filled one of the holes. The third linemate this season, Anders Lee, saw success at times but ultimately struggled due to his poor skating. While McGroarty is not a weak skater, he is unlikely at the level to keep pace with Barzal and Horvat– at least for now. However, the value of adding a dynamic offensive threat like McGroarty might be significant enough to overlook his skating shortcomings.
What Could a Trade Look Like?
The Jets and Islanders are great potential trade partners. Both teams fell in Round 1 of the 2024 Playoffs, have aging cores, and are looking to shake up their rosters. If Winnipeg were to trade McGroarty, they would likely target an NHL-ready defenseman, and the Islanders can entertain this need.
The Islanders could send the 21st pick in the 2024 Draft as a starter. Given that McGroarty was selected 14th in a stronger draft class and has only exceeded expectations thus far, his value is likely more than just this pick. From here, the Islanders could offer 23-year-old defenseman Samuel Bolduc. He was a 2023 American Hockey League (AHL) All-Star for the Bridgeport Islanders due to his physical defensive presence and towering slapshot.
Bolduc spent almost the entire 2023-24 season in the NHL but managed to only play 34 games, scoring two goals and three assists. His profile may not seem too exciting, but Bridgeport has a remarkable track record of developing NHL defensive talent such as Adam Pelech, Ryan Pulock, Devon Toews, Scott Mayfield, and others. Don’t count out Bolduc from potentially developing into a capable top-four defenseman once given a real opportunity in the NHL.
It is hard to predict the exact framework of a trade, but it would certainly be less than what the Flyers received for Gauthier. Gauthier, who was a Hobey Baker Finalist this season after scoring 38 goals and 65 points in 41 games, is multiple tiers above McGroarty as a prospect.
Gauthier received Jamie Drysdale, a young defenseman with top-pairing upside, and a second-round pick. So, the 21st pick and Bolduc should be a respectable blueprint to acquire McGroarty. Winnipeg could use the draft pick to make a first-round selection since they traded away their 2024 first-round pick for Sean Monahan. Or, they could trade the pick for a top-four defenseman to solidify their blue line.
It is still unlikely that McGroarty will be traded. Although Gauthier was traded without anyone knowing he didn’t plan to sign with Philadelphia, such reports are fairly common. College players often stay an additional season or two if they don’t see a clear path to the NHL. With name, image, and likeness deals encouraging athletes to stay in college longer, it makes sense for McGroarty to stay for another season, especially at a powerhouse such as Michigan. However, if he decides not to sign with Winnipeg, the Islanders should pursue him.
