The Winnipeg Jets have seen several players get off to hot starts to the 2023-24 season, but there are a few who looked as if they were slow out of the gate. Nikolaj Ehlers and Connor Hellebuyck are two examples of what a rough few weeks can look like, and while one may be on their way to their usual success, the other appears to be struggling.
There are still those who need to find their legs, but it’s worth noting the ones who have broken out of those initial struggles and appear well on their way to another strong year, and those who are expected to perform better than they have been.
Hellebuyck’s Rough Start Yet to Stabilize
Despite appearing to be back to his Vezina Trophy-winning form, Hellebuyck is once again struggling to keep pucks out of the net. Now, one month into the season, his save percentage (SV%) sits at .890, a full 26 points lower than his career mark of .916.
That number can be viewed in two different lights. It could be seen as a longer-than-normal slump, but one he should snap out of on his way back to his career average numbers. That said, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to also look at this as a serious concern, given the sizable chunk of money the Jets committed to him. That might be an overreaction given how early in the season it is, but when the reliable backstop of the past several years is struggling so much, the concern should start creeping in.
He’s currently performing below average, saving minus 0.1 goals below expected (Moneypuck) when the Jets could really use a few more saves from their goalies. Therein lies the other issue, as it hasn’t been easy to fall back on Laurent Brossoit in the early stages of the season.
Brossoit was signed to help take a load off of Hellebuyck, and it’s likely way too early to start criticizing that decision. Brossoit has only started two games this season, but those starts have been less than stellar. The key to this arrangement working is a little more consistency, and to put it simply, neither has been able to put together a consistent effort just yet.
It remains to be seen how many games Brossoit will start, but if he’s going to be that fall-back option for a struggling Hellebuyck, he’s going to need to be better than the .873 SV% he’s sporting. Ultimately, however, the success of the team does inherently fall on Hellebuyck’s shoulders and not Brossoit’s.
Related: 3 Jets Exceeding Expectations Early in 2023-24 Season
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The slow start problem isn’t unfamiliar territory for Hellebuyck, but this is the farthest it has stretched into a season over the past several years. There were sightings of the Vezina Trophy-winning backstop in the wins over the Edmonton Oilers, Detroit Red Wings, and St. Louis Blues, but it’s not there as consistently as it needs to be.
Ehlers Looking At Home With Perfetti, Namestnikov
After a slow start of his own, Ehlers has done the opposite and appears to be getting back to his usual elite playmaking ability. Likely slowed by his limited preseason action, it looks as if the Danish forward, lovingly nicknamed “Fly” for his speed, is fully up to speed as the season reaches its second month.
There’s no sugarcoating it, he was a step behind his normal flashy self. The recurring concerns of his injury history were thrust back into the spotlight, and while he has had a series of recent injuries, it feels more likely that those were fluke plays that could happen to any player. With neck spasms being the reason for his absence in training camp, there’s no reason to believe that he’ll struggle with that any further now that he looks fully healthy.
Sharing a line with Cole Perfetti and Vladislav Namestnikov, Ehlers looks right at home after getting comfortable with the group that was placed together after Gabriel Vilardi went down with an injury. Among Jets’ lines with 40 or more minutes together, the trio ranks second in expected goals at 55.3% (xG%) and shot attempts (Corsi) at 64.2%. If that line continues to generate these chances, expect Ehlers to keep moving up in the Jets’ scoring ranks, which is a great thing for both team and player.
As the Jets enter a stretch of tough opponents, the key to success is getting the performances they expect from their stars. If Hellebuyck returns to All-Star form or even just closer to his regular self, the team will reap the rewards of that.
In terms of Ehlers’ impact, the key for him is to keep doing what he does on that second line, and the results will follow. Getting consistent offense from up and down the lineup is something the Jets’ have struggled with in years past, but a good middle-six can help move them into a better position down the stretch.
xG% and Corsi courtesy of Moneypuck