In his first few seasons, Patrick Laine was an absolute stud who could score from the perimeter, beating a goaltender cleanly when the average player would have no business being able to do that. His ability to score goals and exuberant personality launched him into superstardom. Unfortunately, that’s not how things ended for Laine and the Winnipeg Jets.
Laine had the pre-draft hype, the eye-popping shot and great production in his draft year, playing against men in the Finnish Elite League and winning the 2016 World Junior Championship. While the consensus top pick was Auston Matthews, the Jets figured they had a star in the making with the second-overall selection.
Unfortunately Laine has since been traded to the Columbus Blue Jackets where he has been struggling and was recently benched. The first thing that comes to mind for many Jets fans seeing him get benched is to speculate about his future and the nostalgia of the good times had with Laine in a Jets sweater. However, the right move is not to re-acquire him.
What Went Right and What Went Wrong for Laine
Based on his first two seasons, it seemed like Laine would be a lock for 50 to 60 goals every season. He was shooting at a generational clip, leading the league in finishing ability and placing third in his first two seasons according to MoneyPuck in Goals Scored Above Expected (GSAE). Which is a stat that determines how much more or less times a player has scored compared to the quality of chances they’ve had. He was routinely out scoring his expected scoring chances by 10-15 goals a season, that’s how special his shot was. Combined with a lethal Jets power-play (that was top-five in the league in 2017-18) the Finnish sniper was blowing away opposing goalies even with his extremely lacklustre defensive play and scoring chance production.
Unfortunately, by his third season in the NHL, his shooting percentage fell from arguably the best in history to just above average. It’s why people refer to him as a good but not nearly an elite player. He just isn’t good enough away from the puck or at creating quality scoring chances that outweigh his good but no longer generational shot. The most logical explanation for this dip in production is that goalies started to realize that his only move was to shoot from the perimeter at five-on-five, and they learned to anticipate it.
Jets Don’t Need Another One-Dimensional Forward
From a box office point-of-view, Laine would put butts in the Canada Life Centre seats. However, from an on-ice standpoint, it just doesn’t make sense to bring him back. The Jets have finally moved past their run-and-gun style of relying on high-end goaltending and elite finishing and now have a deep forward core. The second and third lines are crushing their matchups this season, while the fourth line is there, and the top line is breaking even, even with all those Kyle Connor goals.
Related: Blue Jackets’ Gaudreau & Laine Not Meeting Expectations
There’s just no need for a goal scorer who doesn’t drive play or keep pucks out of the defensive zone. Yes, the Jets could easily use another difference-maker up front, but so could every team in the NHL. Furthermore, the Jets already have two offensive-minded players with no defensive play at all, in Connor and Mark Scheifele. These two are complemented further by Nikolaj Ehlers, Nino Niederreiter and Gabriel Vilardi, who are all above-average finishers and play drivers. The point is, Winnipeg doesn’t need any more shooters in return for worse play at five-on-five.
Jets Should Look Elsewhere to Bolster the Team
Laine returning to Winnipeg would be a “happily ever after” ending from your favourite fairytale. Unfortunately, Laine returning would likely make the Jets worse, regardless of the nostalgia and the ticket sales he would bring. I trust management knows that if the team is going to make a splash at the trade deadline, it should be for a difference-maker on defence or a bonafide top-six center if they don’t think Cole Perfetti or Vilardi are the answer moving forward. I like Laine, but he hasn’t developed into the star he was supposed to be, and Winnipeg is sadly better off without him.