At the very center of Canada, the Winnipeg Jets have been a team that has frustrated their fan base. Showing flashes of brilliance on the ice combined with meddling periods of inconsistency, the Jets have often found themselves in what can be described as the “mushy middle” of the standings. A position that is not good enough to have a true chance at winning a Stanley Cup, while also not being bad enough to secure a top-three lottery draft pick. As the Jets prepare for the upcoming season, it’s worth exploring what factors might determine the highs and lows of next season.
As of late, the Winnipeg Jets have continuously positioned themselves on paper to be a contender, having spent to the cap ceiling repeatedly. Led by the seventh-most expensive defensive core and eighth-most expensive goalie tandem according to CapFriendly, the Jets are clearly spending like a contender does. Yet, they have struggled mightily over the last few years, consistently landing in a position where securing a wild card playoff spot is not really a given, but a challenge.
Factors That Could Lead to Contention
For the Jets to escape the mushy middle, they’ll need to take advantage of their balanced offensive attack. Players like Kyle Connor and Nikolaj Ehlers must continue to evolve how they play the game. Ehlers needs to stay healthy while Connor needs to outscore his defensive woes. Due to the sheer depth of capable forward talent the Jets have, these might not even be a factor. Winnipeg has enough firepower to roll all four lines and have one of the best bottom-six’s in the NHL. Additionally, the development of younger forwards such as Cole Perfetti and Gabriel Vilardi could provide the depth needed to push above mediocrity.
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Connor Hellebuyck has proven time and time again that he is one of the league’s premier goaltenders. Barring he stays on the team for the entirety of the 2023-24 season, he has the ability to steal games even during rough patches. While he is definitely the cornerstone of the Jets’ potential success, this blueprint hasn’t led to much success of late. Hellebuyck is one of the few goaltenders in the NHL who can beat a far superior team by himself. The Jets must take advantage of this if they want to get out of the mushy middle.
Special teams play can make or break a season, especially for an average team like Winnipeg. In 50/50 games, special teams are often the thing that swings the pendulum of winning in one team’s favour. The Jets’ penalty kill took advantage of finally not being held back under a new head coach and finished seventh in the NHL. Unfortunately, the power play took a step back finishing 23rd. Improving the power play while maintaining penalty kill dominance will go a long way in improving the Jet’s chances of contending. A bang average offensive and defensive team with elite goaltending and superb special teams is arguably a top-10 team next year.
Factors That Could Lead to Failure
The Jets have at times struggled defensively, leaving Hellebuyck out to dry facing a ton of high-quality shots. The team’s defensive structure definitely improved under Rick Bowness but another gear is still needed. During the 2020-21 and 2021-22 season the Jets gave up the second- and seventh-most quality of chances against, respectively, according to MoneyPuck. In 2022-23, they improved a lot but still were middle of the pack, finishing 13th-best. Due to the next factor I’m going to talk about, it would be in the Jets’ best interest to shut down the defensive zone even better going forward.
For the longest time the Jets thrived on rush offence, elite goaltending and finishing at an elite rate. While a very risky combination for long-term success, the Jets were one of the few teams who were able to do it for a long period of time. The Jets were the seventh, fifth, sixth, 13th and 13th best finishing team from 2016-17 to 2020-21. Unfortunately, over the past two seasons, the Jets have been the second- and sixth-worst team in finishing their scoring chances. Another subpar season from Winnipeg’s snipers could be the final nail in the coffin for a complete teardown.
Injuries are an unpredictable factor that can disrupt any team. However, it seems the Jets have had a significant injury (or four for that matter) every season now. A significant injury to a key player, especially in the highly competitive top half of the Central Division, could quickly derail the Jets’ season. The top of the Central Division is a fierce place to be with high-quality teams such as the Colorado Avalanche, Minnesota Wild and Dallas Stars. These three teams could make finishing better than a wild card team impossible for Winnipeg.
The Path Forward
For the fourth consecutive year the Jets head into a season where the offseason noise didn’t quite match the moves that were made by the team. While they possess the talent and potential to break free from the mushy middle and contend for a deep playoff run, it is probably unlikely. The great thing about sports is that the quest for a championship is often accompanied by both thrilling victories and heartbreaking defeats. Jets fans should enjoy all the highs they can this upcoming season as if the wheels do fall off, the future will get murky. On the other hand, if everything goes right there is an unlikely path back to contention for Winnipeg.
