As the Toronto Maple Leafs gear up for the postseason, two key players, John Tavares and Max Domi, are hitting their stride at the perfect moment. What might their recent performances mean for the team’s playoff aspirations?
Player 1: John Tavares Has Surged at the Right Time
Captain John Tavares has had an eventful 2023-24 season. Most interesting has been his fluctuations in scoring. He has scored 27 goals and 63 points in 78 games. While that’s below his usual (almost) point-per-game pace, it is still a strong season. Specifically, despite some inconsistencies, his goal total is close to his previous seasons in Toronto.
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Breaking Tavares’ performance into three segments shows an up, down, and up-again pattern. He began the season impressively, putting up 19 points (seven goals, 12 assists) in his first 16 games. However, he experienced a mid-season slump when his production significantly dropped, and he managed only 16 points (six goals, 10 assists) in the next 31 games.
However, since the All-Star break, Tavares has bounced back strongly. He’s registered 27 points (13 goals and 14 assists) in 30 games. This resurgence suggests that his mid-season struggles were more of an extended slump than a skill decline.
Tavares has scored three times in the past two games, including a crucial game-tying goal. The most significant difference in his season has been a slight drop in his shooting percentage; his 9.9% shooting percentage is lower than his career average of 12.8%. That, in itself, could be the single factor affecting his goal-scoring output. At the same time, he’s third on the team in game-winning goals (with six). Auston Matthews has eight game-winners, while William Nylander has seven.
Tavares’ overall production might seem underwhelming, given his salary of $11 million per season. However, right now, his recent resurgence after the All-Star break signals positive momentum heading into the postseason. He still has a tremendous faceoff-winning percentage of 59.5 %. However, in that category, he’s not number one on the team. That distinction falls to Bobby McMann, whose faceoff percentage is a gaudy 60% (but in a smaller sample size).
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While Tavares’ 2023-24 season has been a story of peaks and valleys, his notable scoring resurgence following a mid-season slump bodes well for the playoffs. The team will likely need as many different scorers as it can get.
Player 2: Max Domi’s Riding a Season Turnaround
Max Domi did not have the strongest start to the 2023-24 season. However, he has shown just what kind of playmaker the team has with his solid performance over the latter part of the campaign. The chemistry has been palpable since Mitch Marner was injured and Domi was placed beside Matthews.
Interestingly, the upturn in Domi’s play might rest upon Domi’s deference for Matthews and how he perceives his job when he’s on the ice. Whether it’s just the unique timing of Matthews’ hunt for 70 goals or a longer-term agenda, it seems that Domi does everything he can to get Matthews the puck whenever possible and in every situation. He seems to have an innate ability to find his center wherever he is.
In a recent game against the New Jersey Devils, Domi put up his version of a Gordie Howe hat trick. Typically, that involves scoring a goal, an assist, and getting into a fight. Domi assisted on Matthews’ first goal and later fought with the Devils’ Simon Nemec after a perceived altercation involving Matthews.
While he was not credited with a goal, he might as well have been. Matthews went to the front of the net, put his stick on the ice, and held it still. Domi threaded a pass across the ice; without a movement from Matthews, the puck ricocheted right into the net past the goalie. If it wasn’t the easiest goal Matthews had scored in his career, it must have been close.
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Domi put up 25 points in his first 55 games this season. However, since then, he has significantly improved, with 22 points in 25 games. Before the Detroit Red Wings game on Saturday, Domi had been instrumental in setting up goals for Matthews in consecutive games, delivering two primary assists, and he’s doing all this while averaging just 13:47 minutes of ice time per game.
Domi’s late-season surge markedly improved his point production and contributions to the Maple Leafs offense. His playmaking abilities and physical engagement have bolstered Toronto’s offensive output down the stretch of the 2023-24 NHL season.
The Bottom Line for Tavares, Domi, and the Maple Leafs
Tavares and Domi’s reinvigoration presents a promising narrative for the Maple Leafs, injecting momentum and scoring into the team’s playoff hopes. As these key players hit their stride, Toronto’s prospects look brighter as they face the challenges of pursuing postseason success.
[Note: I want to thank long-time Maple Leafs fan Stan Smith for collaborating with me on this post. Stan’s Facebook profile can be found here.]