After the Tampa Bay Lightning tied the regular-season record for wins back in 2018-19 only to be swept out of the 2019 Playoffs in embarrassing fashion, I’ve found it hard to connect with regular-season hockey the same way. When expectations are Stanley Cup or bust, it’s easy to write off anything that doesn’t carry the weight of a playoff game as frivolous. Of course, reaching the postseason is something that has to be earned each year, but at the same time, there really hasn’t been much concern that the Lightning wouldn’t reach their minimum goal of a playoff birth despite a rotating cast of players due to the salary cap and injuries taking their toll on the franchise.
Even with this in mind, the 2022-23 regular season was been especially apathy-inducing for the Lightning. Despite a slow start, it was clear that the team was more than capable of continuing the success they’ve experienced over the past few years. By the All-Star Break in February, Tampa Bay not only had their spot in the division figured out, but knew their opponent as well, since the Boston Bruins were winning at a historic pace, and their rivals in the Atlantic Division struggled to find their game until they were largely out of the race for the top three positions in the Atlantic.
So, for the last three months or so, it’s been somewhat obvious that the Lightning would face off against the Toronto Maple Leafs again in Round 1. Call it a quirk of scheduling or an abject failure of the NHL’s playoff format, but there has been no postseason drama surrounding the franchise outside of deciding home-ice advantage, and even that boon feels less important given their success on the road in recent years.
Now that the 2023 Playoffs are finally starting, it’s time to knock off the regular season funk that has been following Tampa Bay for most of 2022-23. Sure, the Lightning did their part and held onto third place in the Atlantic division, but they also lost a lot of terribly executed games where they gave up five-plus goals each night with alarming regularity. This below-average play has only been exasperated by a growing list of injuries that may prevent major acquisitions like Tanner Jeannot from being able to prove why general manager Julien BriseBois paid a premium for his services.
Maple Leafs Found an Unexpected Monster in the Lightning
On the other side of the division, the Maple Leafs went about a mid-season overhaul rarely seen in the NHL. After coming up short for years, their general manager Kyle Dubas spent big at the trade deadline, leading to five new players being brought in while two were shipped out. With these deals, Toronto took a top-heavy team and added an immense amount of veteran depth both on offense and defense, which leaves the franchise with few noticeable shortcomings.
Yes, they had a lot of success this regular season, but none of that matters. For close to a calendar year, every person with a connection to the Maple Leafs has cared about one thing; getting past Round 1. Not the Stanley Cup or the Eastern Conference, but seeing Round 2 for the first time in 20 years.
This brings us back to the Lightning after they were swept by the Columbus Blue Jackets. Following that devastating loss, many pundits (myself included) questioned whether it was time for Tampa Bay to make significant changes to a successful core that just couldn’t take that next step. However, BriseBois stayed the course, made meaningful improvements to his roster at the 2020 Trade Deadline, and put his team in the best position to win it all in the eventual 2020 Playoff Bubble.
As if drawn by destiny, the Lightning’s Round 1 matchup was against none other than Columbus, the proverbial monster hiding under their beds that gave them countless sleepless nights. After winning Game 1 in a five-overtime epic, Tampa Bay followed this up with a dud, losing 3-1. This loss felt like a death blow, as the team could have been broken by an opponent who seemed to understand how to beat them no matter what.
Related: Maple Leafs Fans May Finally Get Kyle Dubas’ Head on a Platter
Instead, the Lightning rallied, won three straight one-goal games, and eliminated Columbus in five games. By moving past this haunting opponent, Tampa Bay was able to grow as a franchise and that loss in Game 2 was the last time it felt like they couldn’t win the Stanley Cup for two playoffs.
Lightning Have Nothing Left To Prove Against the Maple Leafs
Now, back in the 2023 Playoffs, the Lightning are playing the role of monster for the Maple Leafs. By all accounts, they aren’t the favorites to win this series, yet, despite all of these rightful concerns and the strength of their opponent, it’s still difficult to call Tampa Bay underdogs. Sure, all signs point to Toronto being more than capable to win, but until they prove that they can do it, no one is going to believe them.
So, we have the Lightning’s 2020 Round 1 matchup against the Blue Jackets, but in reverse. If Tampa Bay finds a way to win Game 1 or 2, then it will be on the Maple Leafs to keep from folding under this pressure. If they can defeat their new rivals, then this might be the last time we wonder if Toronto has what it takes to win a Stanley Cup.
Related: Lightning Could Benefit From Underdog Status Versus Maple Leafs
If they fail to make it out of Round 1 again, however, then the type of organizational change that was expected to hit Tampa Bay could instead sweep through Toronto. This could lead to painful, and potentially unnecessary changes to fix a franchise that may not even be broken but is certainly damaged. Time will tell where this all ends up, but it feels like this is more than a playoff series for the Maple Leafs, where it is just another day at the office for the Lightning.