The NHL All-Star Game is in the rearview mirror and the Tampa Bay Lightning return to the ice. Picking up where they left off before the 10-day break is the only objective in mind. Keep the tear going. They’ve won eight of their last nine, their best stretch yet this season.
However, the upcoming six games are easily their toughest yet. The Lightning have faced most of these teams previously this season with mixed results. And now they get to play them again all at once. But this is supposed to be a different Lightning team than we’ve seen so far this season. If there is a time to show things have truly turned around, this is it.
A Look at the Schedule Ahead
Let’s get everyone on the same page about the upcoming competition. Here’s the schedule with their records, points and place in the standings:
- Feb. 7: New York Rangers 30-16-3, 63 points, first in Metropolitan
- Feb. 8: New York Islanders 20-17-12, 52 points, fourth in Metropolitan (six points behind a playoff spot)
- Feb. 10: Columbus Blue Jackets 16-24-10, 42 points, last in Eastern Conference
- Feb. 13: Boston Bruins, 31-9-9, 71 points, first in Atlantic
- Feb. 15: Colorado Avalanche 32-14-3, 67 points, first in Central Division
- Feb 17: Florida Panthers, 31-14-4, 66 points, second in Atlantic
Four of these teams are all but officially locked into a playoff spot. According to The Athletic, the Bruins, Panthers and Avalanche have a 100% chance of making the playoffs and the Rangers have a 97% chance (from ‘NHL 2023-24 Stanley Cup Playoff Chances and Projected Standing,’ The Athletic, Feb. 1, 2024).
As for the others, the Blue Jackets are very much out of the playoff hunt (0%), and the Islanders’ chances aren’t great either at 28%. That being said, this is still a much more difficult schedule overall compared to their last nine games. The Kings still have a high chance of making the playoffs at 88%, but the bulk of their wins were against non-playoff teams. This test comes with an elevated difficulty.
A Lot to Prove for the Lightning
Since we now have a better idea of just how tough this schedule is, we can now dive into why the Lightning still have a lot to prove, and how these matchups will help the Lightning prove they’re for real.
This is not to discredit the Lightning’s latest streak, it’s still noteworthy. It reflected improvements in certain areas like improved defensive scoring and winning overtime games. However, the streak only shows they can win against teams they’re supposed to beat. This is important, losing those games will take you out of playoff contention quickly.
But the Lightning have yet to show they can consistently win against the top teams. Besides the overtime win against the Bruins on Nov. 20, they don’t have any upset wins to show for it.
Here’s an example. Who was their one loss in their last nine games? It was the Detroit Red Wings, their toughest opponent of that stretch. They looked much better in their second matchup of the season on Jan. 21, an important note, but they lost again. They did beat the Kings, but the Kings haven’t looked too hot lately. Then there’s the fact that they are 1-5-0 against these upcoming opponents – the exception being the Islanders, who they haven’t played yet.
If the Lightning want to prove they have turned things around, they’ll need to win at least four of these games, two of them against the playoff teams. For example, if they beat the Bruins again and get payback against the Panthers, that would be a success. Anything beyond that would be icing on the proverbial hockey cake.
Related: Checking in on the Lightning-Panthers Rivalry
This also implies they should beat both the Blue Jackets, who they lost to on Nov. 2, and the Islanders. If they lose these games, then everyone will point to the same old issues they’ve had on the road – let’s say they blow another lead late in a game or the offense doesn’t show up to a game. They won’t prove anything if they let the old issues consume them again.
It also wouldn’t hurt to see some individuals step up as well. A prime example is goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy, who has had his struggles against these teams. He gave up five goals against the Rangers and six goals to the Bruins.
Then there’s defenseman Mikhail Sergachev. He’s set to return after a stint on the long-term injured reserve (LTIR). He had his struggles before his injury. He’s being thrown into the fire here, but it’s also an opportunity to rise to the occasion. He and Vasilevskiy proving they are still their old selves will in turn help the Lightning as a team make a statement over the next couple of weeks.
Status Ahead of the Deadline
This test goes beyond showing everyone what they’ve got. It has some other implications for the season. A good run against these teams gives the Lightning a more realistic look at their situation ahead of the trade deadline. If they look good, they’ll be more inclined to be more aggressive.
The Lightning’s general manager, Julien BriseBois, said they planned to treat this year’s trade deadline the same way they have treated it in years past. Should the Lightning continue their recent tear, BriseBois is more likely to deliver on his word.
Of course, it’s still a gamble. A trade could fail to pan out. However, there’s still no reason not to make a move if they’re in a good place. Their bottom six could use extra assistance. It hasn’t received the same immediate help in-house that the defense has gotten.
That being said, it might not be worth seeking that assistance if the Lightning go cold again. They wouldn’t do anything drastic like putting Steven Stamkos on the market last second – there are reasons beyond this year’s performance determining his future with the Lightning. But losing key games can change plans nonetheless.
For now, they don’t have to decide anything. The focus can still be on this next test and proving the window is still open. Two weeks from now, we’ll have a clearer picture of what this Lightning team truly is. Right now, they still have control over what that picture will be.