The Tampa Bay Lightning were plagued with unfamiliar issues in the 2023 half of this season. Defensive woes and lack of production throughout the roster are two that stick out.
After the 4-2 loss to the Winnipeg Jets, it looks like these issues are tagging along in 2024. Core members of the staff continue to get the job done. Nikita Kucherov is contending for the Hart and Art Ross Trophies, and Victor Hedman is having as strong a season as ever. But there needs to be more beyond what they do.
Currently, the Lightning find themselves out of a playoff spot with other contenders holding up to four games in hand. If the Lightning want to avoid being on the outside looking in come playoff time, something needs to change. While they will look to add at the trade deadline, there are already players on the team who would make a big difference if they stepped up. Here are five players who can elevate their impact immediately.
Nick Paul
It took no time at all for Lightning fans to embrace Nick Paul. His five goals in the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs made the trade with the Senators look masterful, and he earned himself a long-term contract.
After having a 30-point season in 2022-23, Paul looked poised for a breakout year at the start of 2023-24. In the first nine games of the season, he had seven points, including five goals.
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However, Paul has yet to find his stride since the hot start, as he’s had just six goals in the following 30 games. At one point, he went nine games without a goal; the Lightning went 3-5-1 during that stretch.
Now, what you might not know is the Lightning’s record when Nick Paul scores at least one goal. They are 9-0-0. That’s right. Undefeated. He was a difference-maker in four one-goal wins and had the game-winners against Vegas and Nashville.
It shows the impact of when one more man steps up. Paul played in all five games the Lightning lost in overtime and had just one shot or fewer in three of those games.
Is there going to be a game where Paul scores and the Lightning lose? Of course. But if he can find that groove he was in to start the season, the Lightning would get a massive boost.
Anthony Cirelli
Anthony Cirelli’s performance this year has been one of the more disappointing ones. Last season, he missed time and had a slow start. But he had 18 points, including eight goals, in his final 31 games of last season. That’s a 25-goal pace, closing on 50 points in a full season.
Perhaps it was a sign the 2018-19 NHL All-Rookie Team member was on the verge of elevating his game. But that wasn’t the case. He’s on pace for 17 goals and 36 points this season.
Cirelli is virtually silent on the power play. When the Lightning have the man advantage this season, he has two goals and zero assists. Even if he isn’t a key guy the Lightning count on when on the power play, he’s not making a case to become one.
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The Lightning have been banking on him becoming a major contributor, as his cap hit is $6.25 million for the rest of the decade. Even taking the step towards being a 70-point-per-season player would do wonders.
Tanner Jeannot
Expectations could have been different for Tanner Jeannot. He came into the league as an undrafted free agent. He could have been looked at as the next Barclay Goodrow, as they both arrived in Tampa Bay at about the same age and serve similar roles.
If he was only flipped for a first-round pick and an undrafted minor leaguer, like in the Goodrow trade, Jeannot’s acquisition would receive less scrutiny. But he was acquired in a trade some deem too pricey: defenseman Cal Foote and five draft picks.
One could also argue acquiring Jeannot cost the Lightning Ross Colton — a key forward in the Cup runs. They just traded for Jeannot, so they chose to keep him instead with the cap constraints. Colton was only flipped for a second-round pick, too, making the steep cost look steeper.
So, while the expectations didn’t have to be this high, they are. If nothing more than to prove he was worth the price, Jeannot has to contribute beyond physicality. One way he can is to find the back of the net more in 2024.
Brayden Point
At first thought, it does sound a little silly to put the player who’s second on the team in points this season on the list. After all, this is Brayden Point. But he needs to be observed due to his recent lack of production.
In his first 21 games this season, Point had 29 points, including 11 goals. At that pace, he was on track to finish with over 100 points for the first time in his career. He was also on pace for another 40-goal season. This factors in the first six games of the season, when he didn’t score a goal.
Since then, Point has had 11 points, including six goals in 18 games. Take away his three-goal performance against Vegas, and he has just eight points in 17 games. Is this how he’s going to play the rest of the season? Not at all. The production is going to return, but the argument here is that it must return.
If Point is not playing at the high level that we’ve seen out of him in the past, and even this season, the Lightning are going nowhere. It’s been an up-and-down year with the core still performing. But it could get messier if top players enter cold spells.
Mikhail Sergachev
Even before his recent move to long-term injured reserve, this season had been a struggle for Mikhail Sergachev – maybe those struggles will be put behind him when he returns.
Last season, Sergachev’s 64 points were a career-high and ranked 11th among NHL defensemen. His defensive point shares (DPS), an estimated number of points contributed by a player based on his defense, was 4.7, better than Roman Josi or Cale Makar. This is not to say he was better than these two, but it showed he performed at a high level.
Sergachev’s production has dropped off this season, as he’s on pace for 43 points. That’s still the second-highest of his career, but it’s a 21-point step backward. As for his DPS, it is currently 0.8. With his current performance, he’s looking like he’ll finish with a career-low in this category; he has never finished with a DPS below 2.5 in a full season. In both of the pandemic-shortened seasons, he finished a DPS of at least 3.0.
He’s had some costly turnovers as well. As the number two defenseman on the team with the talent he possesses, Sergachev needs to bounce back in the new year.