The Tampa Bay Lightning’s 4-1 win over the Minnesota Wild on Jan. 4 featured a career night for defenseman Darren Raddysh. He scored his first two goals of the season en route to being the first star of the night. He had one career goal heading into the game, so the multi-goal performance was in turn the first of his career.
This performance is a reflection of his quiet growth during the season. Raddysh took longer than he would’ve liked to secure his spot on an NHL roster, but now that he’s here, he’s showing he can make an impact.
Raddysh’s Potential in Tampa Bay
The defensive situation only got worse for the Lightning as they got set for their game against the Wild. Mikhail Sergachev was heading to long-term injury reserve (LTIR), joining Hayden Fleury. Erik Cernak is now day-to-day.
These are not ideal updates after having just five defensemen play against the Winnipeg Jets. It will be longer than just the one game without those three injured defensemen. The blue line depth continues to get thinner. However, despite these woes, it was the defensive core that got the Lightning the win Thursday night, and it was because Raddysh took full advantage of his opportunity to take on a bigger role.
Even with the lack of defensive depth, there’s something here. The numbers beyond a single game suggest this. Raddysh’s points per game is up from last season – 0.18 to 0.3. This takes him from 14 points in a full season up to 24. Another indication of tighter defense has been his reduction in giveaways per game. He’s given up 12 in 40 games so far this season (.3) as opposed to nine in 17 games (.53) last season. He’s also blocking more shots with 1.18 per game this season compared to .941 last season.
If these differences seem slim, keep in mind hockey is played on the slimmest of margins. What might look like the slightest differences in points per game and save percentages go a long way during a long season.
Related: Lightning Places Sergachev on LTIR as Blueline Depth Dwindles
Raddysh has been adjusting to NHL competition quite well. This begs the question, what’s his ceiling? At 27 years old, odds are he’s not the next Victor Hedman, but it’s still a very respectable ceiling. He could very well reach and surpass the caliber of some notable former Lightning defensemen who have departed in recent years, such as Luke Schenn and Jan Rutta. Raddysh is already on pace to have more points in a season than Schenn did in Tampa Bay and about what Rutta reached in his third and final season with the club.
Let’s go a step further. If Raddysh reaches this point total, it would be a greater total than higher touted defensemen Erik Cernak had posted in a season to date. The most Cernak has had is 18.
Raddysh serves as a nice successor to those who were part of the Lightning’s recent winning ways as the defense rebuilds after being torn apart by the salary cap restrictions.
Speaking of the Salary Cap
At the current moment, Raddysh is under a very affordable contract with the Lightning. This year, his cap hit is $762,500 – however, his total salary is $775,000, the league minimum. For the next two seasons, his cap hit will be $975,000. With the rising cap, it will be more of a bargain than it is now.
After that, he’s an unrestricted free agent. He’ll be 30 years old by that point. While he won’t receive top dollar for his services, he can still net himself a nice contract should he continue to establish himself as a quality defenseman.
Let’s take a look at a contract from a player he’s already been compared to in this article. Schenn, who had a similar contract at a few years older in Tampa Bay, is now earning $2.75 million per year in Nashville. If Raddysh develops to this level or beyond this, becoming a 40 to 45-point-per-season player let’s say, he should have no trouble getting a similar deal.
However, as the cap goes up, a similar player could go for more. How much more is something that we’ll have to wait and see. But that doesn’t mean we won’t try and estimate.
According to CapFriendly, the salary cap is estimated to be $92 million in 2025-26, the final year of Raddysh’s contract. This is the season being used for this hypothetical contract since it’s the furthest out there as an estimated cap projection. This is about a 10% increase from today. We estimate the average annual value (AAV) of his future contract will be, based on the comparable Schenn contract adjusted for future cap space, about $3.025 million.
That’s significantly lower than any of the top defensemen on the Lightning payroll with the current salary cap. Even if Hedman were to take a pay cut to stay past when his current contract ends in 2025-26, this is purely for example, his AAV would still likely be higher than that. At an estimated three percent of the cap in the future, with his current and potential quality of play, expect the Lightning to take a flyer on Raddysh to be part of their long-term plans.