Picture for a second, if you will, Anze Kopitar in a jersey other than the Los Angeles Kings. Imagine, if you can, Evgeni Malkin signing with a team other than the Pittsburgh Penguins. For that matter, deign to see in your mind’s eye Alex Ovechkin pulling on a Penguins sweater. These scenarios are unimaginable, and, dare I say, even unnatural. Each player has been the most important or one of the most important players in their franchise’s history. Though they are older by NHL standards, they have re-signed within the past few years because each organization recognizes the value they have brought and continue to bring on and off the ice. The idea of them leaving, if I have not made myself clear, would have been a crime to even consider.
This thoughtcrime has been committed in Tampa Bay, FL. The perpetrator: Julien BriseBois. The victim: Steven Stamkos. The captain is playing in the final year of his eight-year, $68 million contract, and BriseBois has gone out of his way to say negotiations will not begin until the end of the season. This comment left Stamkos frustrated, and Lightning fans confused. Now, I am firmly on Team Stamkos here, and we will explore below why he deserves an offer. What that contract might look like though is a different matter. However, regardless of the complexities, Tampa Bay should pay to keep Stamkos a Lightning until he retires.
Stamkos Deserves to be Paid
Earlier this season, I explored in depth what Stamkos has done for and meant to the organization. I will not go into all the details here, but I will share the highlights. His 531 goals, 1,094 points, 1,040 games played, 324 even-strength goals, 202 power-play goals, 80 game-winning goals, and 12 hat tricks are Lightning records. That is a lot of statistics, and I became tired of writing them just as you might have reading them. That long list does not include his two Stanley Cups and Rocket Richard Trophy, and we cannot forget those.
Stamkos would give a leg for the Lightning organization. He practically did when he played through a lower-body injury in Game 3 of the 2020 Stanley Cup Final (he scored on his first shot by the way). He has reiterated, in no uncertain terms, that “this is the only jersey I ever want to wear in my career” (from ‘Lightning’s Steven Stamkos: ‘This is the only jersey I ever want to wear’, Tampa Bay Times, May 3, 2023).
Call me crazy, but that seems like fertile ground to strike a deal. Why have we not seen one then? Apparently, the salary cap complicates the situation.
The Salary Cap and Stamkos’ Current Market Value
Let us then look at the salary cap situation for the Lightning heading into the 2024-25 season and see if it holds up as an excuse for not signing Stamkos. We know that the cap will rise to $87.7 million next season, an increase of $4.2 million. The Lightning are projected to have a $76.8 million cap hit. If we put pencil to paper and carry the one, general manager BriseBois will have roughly $10.9 million in cap space to construct a deal for Stamkos.
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The next logical step is to determine what Stamkos is worth. I do not like answering this question because in some sense he has been invaluable what with captaining the team to back-to-back Stanley Cups and all. Alas, hockey is a business, and money matters so worth must be assigned. Unfortunately for BriseBois, Stamkos’ performance on the ice only drives his price higher. Much of the talk surrounding his contract took place before the season so the possibility remained that Stamkos’ play would decline. If BriseBois counted on this to perhaps make Stamkos more affordable, all I can think is “Woops!”
At 33, Stamkos remains a point-per-game player with 38 points (16 goals, 22 assists) in 38 games. He ranks second among players above the age of 33 behind only Sidney Crosby (41 points in 38 games). Some other names Stamkos is outpacing include Joe Pavelski (35 points), Kopitar (35 points), Brad Marchand (35 points), Malkin (33 points), Claude Giroux (31 points), and Ovechkin (25 points). These guys are no slouches, and their contracts for the 2024-25 season (included in the chart below) provide insight into Stamkos’ current market value.
| Name | 2024-25 Contract Average Annual Value |
| Sidney Crosby | $8,700,000 |
| Joe Pavelski | $3,500,000* |
| Anze Kopitar | $7,000,000 |
| Brad Marchand | $6,125,000 |
| Evgeni Malkin | $6,100,000 |
| Claude Giroux | $6,500,000 |
| Alex Ovechkin | $9,500,000 |
Now, I will disclose I am not a math expert. However, I do not think you need to be a numbers whiz to see that Stamkos’s value lies somewhere in the $6 to $8 million range. However, based on his play, it is most likely closer to the $8 million end because point-per-game players in the NHL are not easy to come by, especially at his age. Let us split it right down the middle though and call it a roughly $7 million going rate for Stamkos. In fact, the Los Angeles Kings signed Kopitar to a two-year, $14 million contract last summer, and his $7 million average annual value (AAV) might be the most direct comparison we have for Stamkos. So that number works nicely. Is that doable for BriseBois?
What Stamkos’ Next Contract Could Look Like
Fortunately, Stamkos’ performance is not the only factor in cementing a deal for the future Hall of Famer. The NHL sees players sign “hometown discount” contracts. These arise when a player takes a smaller payout than he could have received elsewhere because he wants to remain with his organization. The most famous of these is Crosby signing a 12-year, $104 million contract, which averages out to $8.7 million per year. Knowing he could have signed a shorter contract (say eight years) that would have allowed him to re-sign for a larger payout later, Crosby wanted to keep his cap hit low so the team could afford other players like Malkin and Kris Letang.
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Given Stamkos’ adamancy concerning his desire to stay in Tampa Bay, a hometown discount could be a possibility. How about a four-year, $24 million contract? At $6 million per year, Stamkos would be giving up some cash to stay and help keep the Lightning core intact. This would leave BriseBois over $4 million to sign six other unrestricted free agents heading into next season. I do not envy that task.
There are other options for BriseBois as well. Perhaps he should consider trading Tanner Jeannot, whose $2.665 million salary seems steep considering the forward has scored 12 goals over the past two seasons. Hopes for him were higher after he scored 24 in 2021-22 and the Lightning traded five draft picks (you read that right) to the Nashville Predators to acquire him. Having that come off the books would certainly provide some relief.
All this said, the four-year, $24 million offer seems like a starting point, a starting point that should at least be broached out of respect for all that Stamkos has contributed to the Lightning. There are other contract options, like a three-year, $21 million offer that would also kickstart negotiations. Exploring trade options like Jeannot highlights that a deal is not impossible. But it is beyond bewildering to me that Stamkos has been treated this way.
Steven Stamkos Should Retire a Lightning
Listen, I am not a general manager in the NHL (in case you did not know that), and it is easy to play Monday morning quarterback. I can sit here and point out all that Stamkos has accomplished and contributed. I can manipulate numbers to show how a possible scenario in the future might work. And I can gesticulate and articulate to my father (a Bolts fan through and through) how no other player as valuable as Stamkos has been treated this way by his organization. At the end of the day, the crux of my argument is this: Stamkos should retire a Lightning. There are ways to make it happen. BriseBois needs to make it happen.