The Rocket Richard Trophy doesn’t require any guesswork or any balloting. The hockey media doesn’t get a say. Whoever finishes the season with the highest number of goals takes home the trophy. It’s that simple. And in the past decade, it’s been an award dominated by Alexander Ovechkin. But now, it looks like Auston Matthews, the back-to-back champion, has a stranglehold on the goal-scoring market.
But nothing is determined this early in the season. There are still 80-plus games to play and thousands of goals to be scored. And there are several other former winners who will be looking to take home top honors again. So let’s take a look at the longshots for the Rocket Richard Trophy in 2022-23.
David Pastrňák
Odds: +2200
This is an obvious choice for a potential Richard Trophy candidate. In fact, David Pastrňák won the award as recently as 2020 (in a tie with Ovechkin). Last season, he scored just 40 goals in 72 games, a far cry from Matthews’ 60. But this will be a special season for the “Last Dance” Bruins. Patrice Bergeron is returning for one last kick at the can, and Pastrňák with Czechian countryman David Krejčí.
Moreover, Brad Marchand is set to miss the start of the season, and someone will have to supplement his production. His 48 goals in 72 games during the Richard-winning 2019-20 season is a 56-goal pace in a full season. If he can keep that pace and stay healthy, he will certainly be in the hunt for his second Rocket Richard. Oh, and it’s a contract year, so Pastrňák will have plenty of motivation to turn on the afterburners and go all out this season.
Elias Lindholm
Odds: +2500
In the game of musical chairs that was Calgary’s offseason, Elias Lindholm seems to be the one person still sitting where he was to begin with. Coming off a point-per-game season where he scored 42 goals, he is still one of the NHL’s most underrated players. But the question remains: can he score at a Rocket Richard pace without Johnny Gaudreau on his wing?
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If there is any “upgrade” over Gaudreau in the playmaking department, it might just be new Flames acquisition Jonathan Huberdeau. One of the best passers in the league, he led the league with 85 last year, he helped former Florida Panthers teammate Aleksander Barkov to a career-high 39 goals last season. After a shocking trade in the offseason, Huberdeau will be motivated to prove his value, and Lindholm may be the beneficiary. If he adds about 10 goals and the field settles around him, he has an outside shot at the Richard Trophy.
Nathan MacKinnon
Odds: +3000
No one will question Nathan MacKinnon’s hockey ability. But goal-scoring has never been his focus. He had a career-high 41 in the 2018-19 season, though he was also on a 40-goal pace in a full season last season. Now, having signed the league’s richest contract extension, he’ll be driven to continue to prove that he’s one of the elite players in the league. And skyrocketing his goal total would be one way to do that. It’s not a likely outcome, but that’s the whole point of this article. MacKinnon is one of those rare players with the skillset and the determination to set this goal and make it a reality.
Steven Stamkos
Odds: +3000
Steven Stamkos already has two Rocket Richard Trophies in his trophy case after his 51-goal season in 2009-10 and his 60-goal campaign in 2011-12. But injuries have plagued and marred an otherwise spotless career. He’s still very much on pace to be a Hockey Hall of Fame player, and he will almost certainly score his 500th goal this season.
Stamkos played 81 games last season and scored 42 goals and 106 points. The Tampa Bay Lightning have a lot of weapons, and he doesn’t have to shoulder the full load like he once did. But he is still one of the best goal-scorers in the game at his best when he can stay fully healthy. He has the chance to flash and pop another great goal-scoring season, and if he does, he’ll be right in the Richard Trophy hunt.
Jason Robertson
Odds: +4000
Jason Robertson has had an incredible young career, and he just got paid for it, singing a four-year, $31-million contract extension with the Dallas Stars. Last season, at just 22, he scored on a 45-goal pace. He is continuing to improve. He’s one of the NHL’s budding superstars. The Stars may not have the infrastructure to support a 50-plus goal player, but Robertson has excelled even while the Stars’ offense has looked lackluster. He could take a huge step forward and contend this season.
Who Did We Overlook?
Who belongs on this list that we’ve overlooked? Let us know in the comments. We’d love to know what players you think are longshots for the Rocket Richard Trophy! Let us hear your voice.