If the 2023-24 season were to start right now, the Toronto Maple Leafs’ defence pairings would look something like this:
First Pairing: TJ Brodie – Jake McCabe
Second Pairing: Morgan Rielly – Timothy Liljegren
Third Pairing: Mark Giordano – Conor Timmins
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All six players above are signed until at least the end of the upcoming 2023-24 season.
It Isn’t That Bad a Defense Right Now
While it might not be the ideal defense for a team that wants to compete for the Stanley Cup, it is not that bad of a defensive lineup to start the regular season with. Our estimation would have it ranked somewhere in the middle of the pack. It’s not great. It’s not terrible.
Third Pairing: Giordano – Timmins
Starting with the bottom pair, there are some rumours that Giordano might be considering retirement. We can’t see that happening. He signed a two-year deal for $850,000 before the start of last season. As an over-35 player (Giordano will be 40 when the puck drops on the new season), if he did retire, the Maple Leafs would still have his cap hit on the books.
We’re sure the Maple Leafs would have discussed that possibility with Giordano when they signed him. If there were any possibility he would not play the full two seasons, common sense says they wouldn’t have risked signing him.
While Giordano did have some struggles in the playoffs, it was more from overuse than it was a lack of talent. He averaged just under 18 minutes a game in the Tampa Bay Lightning series, and he was on the ice for six more goals against than for. He saw his ice time drop to 11:30 per game in the Florida Panthers series and fared much better. He was on the ice for only one more goal against than for. By the eye test, he’s still an effective bottom-six defenseman.
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At 24, and with only 78 games of experience, Timmins is still finding his way as an NHLer. He did perform extremely well for the Maple Leafs when he did play last season. His stat line for the 25 games he played was two goals and 12 assists (for 14 points) with a plus-1 rating, 23 hits, and 18 blocked shots.
Former general manager (GM) Kyle Dubas liked what he saw enough to sign Timmins to a two-year extension for $1.1 million per season.
While there are still a lot of questions about how good Timmins is, beginning the season with him on the third pair and partnered with a skilled veteran like Giordano seems like a safe bet.
Second Pairing: Rielly – Liljegren
Rielly and Liljegren, despite some hiccups, did play well together for stretches in the regular season. In the American Hockey League (AHL) and the NHL, Liljegren was a good support partner for the offensive-minded Rasmus Sandin, who plays a similar game to Rielly.
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Liljegren’s game improved considerably during the 2022-23 season. He did struggle at times; but, that is to be expected from a player who had four fewer games of NHL experience than Timmins did at the start of last season. There’s no reason why he can’t keep improving at the rate he has up until now.
Rielly is the Maple Leafs’ top offensive defenseman and has been for most of his NHL career. He does have defensive warts in his game, but he has seen a gradual, but steady, improvement in that aspect of his game as his career has progressed. Having him play outside the top pairing, not against the opposition’s top defensemen, helps him fully utilize his offensive abilities.
Top Pairing: Brodie – McCabe
This duo would be considered the Maple Leafs’ top shutdown pair. While they aren’t going to score much, they can provide some sound defensive hockey. Brodie’s strengths are his ability to disrupt plays using his stick and his body to deflect and block passes and shots.
While he just turned 33, Brodie does not play the type of grinding physical game that would create extreme wear and tear on his body. He’s more about positioning and using his stick defensively.
Despite not being a big player, at 6-feet-1, 205 pounds, McCabe plays a more traditional defenseman’s game. He’s physically strong and isn’t afraid to throw hits. He can also block shots as well as use his strength to clear opposition players from the front of the net. He sometimes gets caught out of position in an effort to throw hits and be more physical.
Having a top pair of Brodie and McCabe might be the biggest weakness of the Maple Leafs’ defence. Neither of them is a true top-pairing defenseman. While they are strong defensively, they lack the offensive part of the game to be a true number-one pair. Again though, they would most likely be adequate to begin the regular season.
The Future: If the Team Signs Luke Schenn
If the Maple Leafs did start the season with those six players comprising their top six defensemen, it is obvious that upgrades would have to be made as the season progressed. A defensive alignment like this would most likely be good enough to get the Maple Leafs into the playoffs. However, unless they all had career seasons, they would not be capable of carrying them very far.
At the time of writing this, there are reports that new GM Brad Treliving and Luke Schenn are in negotiations on a new contract. He was a great partner for Rielly in the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs. At the age of 33 and with 975 games played, he would be considered to be more of a third-pairing defenseman. He would most likely push Timmins down to seventh on the depth chart.
If whatever Schenn and Rielly had going in the playoffs could be duplicated, Schenn might have a job in the Maple Leafs’ top four. Rielly was arguably the Maple Leafs’ best player in the playoffs. It reminded us of when Ron Hainsey played alongside Rielly in the 2018-19 season when Rielly scored 72 points in 82 games.
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There are a number of unrestricted free agent (UFA) defensemen available come July 1. Names such as John Klingberg, Matt Dumba, and Erik Johnson, to name a few, could step right into the top pair of the Maple Leafs’ defense and instantly make the team better.
There Might Be Salary Cap Space for a Move or Two
According to CapFriendly, the Maple Leafs have just over $9 million in cap space available this offseason. If Jake Muzzin remains on long-term injury reserve (LTIR) (which seems highly likely) and Treliving can find a way to rid the team of Matt Murray’s salary-cap hit (which seems a goal), that would more than double the cap space the Maple Leafs will have. It would then be about $20 million.
While there are still a number of forward spots to fill and the goalie situation to figure out, there would still be room to improve the team’s defense. The bottom line is that the Maple Leafs’ defensive situation is not as bleak as it might seem.
[Note: I want to thank long-time Maple Leafs’ fan Stan Smith for collaborating with me on this post. Stan’s Facebook profile can be found here.]