Timothy Liljegren, for all his faults in the playoffs, enjoyed a successful regular season in which he played in an increased role against tougher competition, maintained sturdy underlying statistics, and posted a career-high 82-game point pace of 34 points. His playoff performance was disappointing to say the absolute least, but considering the regular season that he had, he’s proven himself worthy of a contract extension with the Toronto Maple Leafs, and one that should be at a higher pay grade than his expiring contract.
Regular Season
For the vast majority of the 2023-24 regular season, Liljegren was an incredibly effective bottom-four defenceman. He mainly played on the second pairing alongside Mark Giordano, Jake McCabe, and TJ Brodie, and found great success with the first two. He was the Maple Leafs’ second power-play unit’s quarterback for the majority of the season, finishing with a career-high seven power-play points en route to a five-goal, 23-point campaign in 55 games — the best full-season point pace of his career.
Beyond the points, his underlying statistics also showed promise considering his increased role. His expected goals share (xGF%) of 53.09% was the third consecutive season in which he played the majority of the Maple Leafs’ games and had the team dictate play while he was on the ice. Among Toronto defencemen with at least 30 games played this season, his xGF% trailed only Mark Giordano (54.03%) and William Lagesson (53.59%). His career high of 59.62% came two seasons ago, but at that point in his career, he was a sheltered third-pair defenceman. He’s since upped his time on ice per game by over three minutes, signaling significant growth in the past couple of seasons.
At 5v5, Liljegren trailed only Giordano in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60), meaning that the Maple Leafs were at their (second) best offensively with Liljegren on the ice compared to any other defenceman. Admittedly, they weren’t as good defensively, giving up more expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) than many of the other defencemen on the roster, but when the offensive numbers are that good and his overall xGF% is more-than-positive, it’s extremely hard to complain. He showed that he is fully capable of munching top-four minutes with success, and in a contract season, should earn a pay raise from the $1.4 million average annual value (AAV) contract he was previously on.
2023-24 regular season grade: B+
Playoffs
As much as the regular season was a success for Liljegren, the playoffs were an outright disaster. He got outplayed, outworked, and outclassed in each of the first three games, resulting in his getting benched in Game 4 for Brodie before returning in the last three games (only to get outplayed in each game again).
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He ended the postseason with one assist in six total games and held a minus-1 rating while playing for a shade under 18 minutes a night. His xGF% was the lowest among any Maple Leafs’ defenceman, with his atrocious 32.42% being better than just three members of the bottom six (Connor Dewar, David Kampf, and Ryan Reaves). In fact, there wasn’t a single game in the series in which the Maple Leafs controlled at least 50% of the expected goals with Liljegren on the ice — the closest they got was 42.95% in Game 3, the game in which he played the least amount of time. His xGA/60 of 3.68 was the worst on the team, especially compared to the rest of the defencemen. Joel Edmundson held the second-worst mark on the blue line at a much lower 2.87.
There’s no excusing Liljegren’s playoff performance considering the regular season success he had. He played two fewer minutes per game than in the regular season, primarily against Boston’s bottom six, and was consistently outplayed. In a contract year, his playoff run couldn’t have lowered his value any more.
2024 Playoffs grade: F
Treliving Should Not Let Playoff Performance Dictate Next Contract
Yes, Liljegren’s abysmal playoffs left a sour taste in just about everybody’s mouths. Still, it’s important not to get lost in recency bias, and while postseason hockey and regular season hockey are two different beasts, his regular season performance should be enough to warrant a contract extension. His name has floated around as a potential trade piece, but I personally believe that to be a mistake as he is quite an effective defenceman for the most part. Hopefully, he stays a piece of the Maple Leafs’ blue line for years to come.
