Entering the season an expiring unrestricted free agent (UFA), Toronto Maple Leafs star forward William Nylander came into 2023-24 looking to build upon a career year in which he scored 40 goals and surpassed the point-per-game marker for the first time. Not only did he execute that admirably, putting together a 40-goal, 98-point campaign, but he extended his tenure in The Six to the tune of an eight-year, $11.5 million average annual value (AAV) contract. That might seem a tad rich, especially for a team that has pumped more than $40 million into just four players, but you can’t really argue that it wasn’t deserving.
Regular Season
For the second season in a row, Nylander played in all 82 regular season games, now having only missed one game since the start of 2021-22. He’s exhibited steady growth from a point-producing standpoint throughout his career, and this campaign was no exception — after a career-high 87 points in 2022-23, Nylander crushed that total in 2023-24, ending the season just two points shy of the triple-digit mark. While finishing 10th in the NHL in scoring is an incredible feat in and of itself, his underlying statistics admittedly took a bit of a hit in the process.
In his previous three seasons, Nylander had posted consistent expected goal shares (xGF%) of between 55.85% and 57%, meaning that when he was on the ice, the Maple Leafs controlled well over half of the expected goals. This season, though the Maple Leafs still controlled the slight majority of expected goals with Nylander on the ice, they did so with drastically less success, commanding an xGF% of 51.45%.
This downtrend in on-ice metrics can be further broken down into drops in both offensive and defensive play. While he was on the ice this season, the Maple Leafs produced 2.92 expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60), significantly lower than the xGF/60 of 3.51 he posted the year prior. On defense, Nylander’s expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) was the third-highest mark of his career at 2.76. Only last season’s 2.77 and 2017-18’s 2.81 were worse. Basically, what I’m getting at here is that his defensive game was worse than he’s shown throughout the bulk of his career while his offensive drop-off from the past couple of seasons wasn’t able to cover it up as well.
Related: Toronto Maple Leafs 2023-24 Report Card: Mitch Marner
On an individual level, Nylander saw worsened underlying analytics as well. His individual expected goals (ixG) — or the number of goals his shot attempts would be expected to produce — of 0.84 per 60 minutes is the worst ixG/60 he’s had in the past five campaigns. His individual high-danger chances per 60 minutes (iHDCF/60) was a six-season low, with his 3.19 being just over half of last season’s 5.12. In a sense, while he was shooting as much as he’s used to, the quality of the shots he got off in 2023-24 simply wasn’t up to par with what Maple Leafs fans and observers have gotten used to.
With all that in mind, though, it’s hard to grade him harshly because of the 98 points he put up, 76 of which were primary points. It’s hard to imagine him not maintaining an above-point-per-game pace even with mediocre underlying impacts, so if he polishes them up next season, we very well may see Nylander’s first 100-point campaign.
2023-24 regular season grade: B+
Playoffs
Much like I said with Auston Matthews, it’s a bit more difficult to analyze Nylander’s playoff run than the average player simply because he missed several games with a head injury. Having only played in the final four games of the series, Nylander saw an average ice time of 21:44 per game and produced three points — all goals, all of which came at 5v5. He played the bulk of his time alongside John Tavares and Matthew Knies, both of whom scored as many or fewer points than Nylander in the postseason despite both playing in all seven games.
His underlying statistics were among the strongest on the Maple Leafs — his xGF% of 52.93% was fourth on the team and second among forwards. Once again, though, his defensive game had its blips — his HDCF% of 38.71% was the worst of his career, and with Nylander on the ice, the Maple Leafs allowed the second-most high-danger chances of any player on the team per 60 minutes, solely trailing Timothy Liljegren. Compared to years past, it would have been nice to see some better play when he didn’t have possession of the puck.
He did show some leadership and held his teammate, Mitch Marner, accountable during Game 4, though, which was encouraging to see from a cultural standpoint. Marner and Matthews were seen arguing on the bench about a miscommunication on the ice when Nylander chipped in and took a jab at the two. After the game, Nylander cited “[pushing] each other” as the reason for the dispute, not necessarily pointing to any perceived immaturity on the bench. I couldn’t agree with him more — when it’s crunch time, holding the top players of a top team accountable for excellent play should go without saying. It was refreshing to see live in action.
2024 playoffs grade: B+
Berube Could Be Nylander’s Bane
While Nylander’s stardom is undisputed, I could see a situation in which his point production and metrics downtrend as a result of recently hired Craig Berube’s system and line deployment. Whereas Sheldon Keefe’s Maple Leafs were a controlled-entry team, Berube relies massively on dump-and-chase and forechecking. While I don’t think this adjustment will necessarily be difficult for Nylander — the game’s best players should be able to adapt to different systems — I can see a world in which Nylander’s game takes a hit. I don’t think he’s afraid of physical contact, but by no means is he actively considered the “gritty” player who thrives in a Berube system. Pairing that with Berube’s pattern of giving bottom-six forwards a bit more ice time than the average coach, we might see a different Nylander in the first season of his new contract.
