The Toronto Maple Leafs’ fourth line in the early going of the 2023-24 season has consisted of wingers Noah Gregor and Ryan Reaves, along with centers David Kampf and (more recently) Pontus Holmberg. The overall performance of the fourth line has not been very good to this point of the season. A perusal of five-on-five statistics on Natural Stat Trick shows the bottom four Maple Leafs players in scoring Chances, high-danger scoring chances, goals for and against, and expected goals for and against are Reaves, Gregor, Holmberg, and Kampf.
We realize these are fourth-line players. As such, their overall performance is expected to be that of fourth-line players. No one expects them to lead the team. Still, because the majority of their shifts are against the bottom six players on the opposing team, these numbers show they are losing their shifts more than winning them. The eye test backs those statistics up.
Looking at Ryan Reaves Specifically
If we look at Reaves in particular, we see that when he’s on the ice in five-on-five situations, the Maple Leafs have had 27.9 percent of the Scoring Chances, 21.7 percent of the high-danger chances, and 34.2 percent of the expected goals. He has been on the ice for zero goals for and five goals against as well.
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We realize that Reaves is on the team as Wayne Simmonds’ replacement. His job is to bring physicality and to “Keep the flies off” of other players, as Mike Babcock used to say. And he has done that. He leads the team in hits with 15 and has been in two fights.
However, if Reaves can’t pull his weight in other areas of the game and play a regular shift, the Maple Leafs can’t afford to keep dressing him. Simmonds only played in 18 games last season. While he stayed and practiced with the team, he cleared waivers and was technically in the minors for most of the season. Simmonds did that by letting the rest of the NHL know that he would retire if another team claimed him off of waivers.
What to Do with Reaves?
It might be time for the Maple Leafs to try the same thing with Reaves. He does not have any loyalties to the Maple Leafs, and he probably wants to play. If he were placed on waivers and claimed, he would most likely be good to go with the team that claimed him.
Related: Toronto Maple Leafs’ Curious Signing of Ryan Reaves
But, when the Maple Leafs signed Reaves, they did so for a strange three-year deal for $1.35 million annually. That seemed an overpayment in both term and salary. The speculation is that they signed him to that deal to make other teams think twice before claiming the 36-year-old Reaves, and the team is likely correct on that count.
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Odds are that Reaves would clear waivers with no problem. Then he could either do the same thing that Simmonds did, stay, travel, and practice with the team, or he could go to the Marlies and play. Whichever of the two choices he desires, he could do. The $1.15 million that the Maple Leafs would save in their salary cap would be enough cap space to bring any of the players they presently have on the American Hockey League (AHL) Toronto Marlies roster to replace Reaves.
Who on the Marlies Would Do the Job?
There are players on the Marlies that could probably eat up some ice time on the fourth line of the Maple Leafs and perform better than Reaves. Bobby McMann is one of them, but unfortunately, he was injured in his first game with the Marlies. Alex Steeves is another player who has shown he could hold his own on a fourth line in the NHL.
Related: Bobby McMann: Maple Leafs Rising Star & Fan Favorite
But the player we would like to see the Maple Leafs give a shot to is Nick Robertson. We are familiar with the narrative that states that, for Robertson to be effective, he has to play in the top six. We don’t fully understand that. How can a player be good enough to play in the top six of an NHL team but not be good enough to play in the bottom six?
Nick Robertson Would Be a Better Replacement
We can see where Robertson’s offensive skills would be better utilized playing at or near the top of the order, but we see no reason why those same skills can’t be a benefit to him playing on the third or fourth line as well. We keep getting told that minutes played in the offensive zone are minutes that are not getting played in the defensive zone.
As for the defensive aspects of the game, while they might not be a strength Robertson possesses, he has been learning the defensive end of the game in the AHL. He has to have some defensive capabilities. Can he do worse than Reaves?
Having Robertson in the lineup could also be handy if the game calls for more offense. Right now, Kampf, whose game is all about defense, is playing on the third line with Max Domi and Matthews Knies. If the Maple Leafs were down in a game and needed to shorten the bench while gaining offense, moving Robertson alongside Knies and Domi could accomplish that.
The Big Question: Can Robertson Stay Healthy?
The biggest issue with Robertson in his career has been his health. We would hate to see him get injured again. However, is there any more risk of him getting hurt in the NHL than there is in the AHL?
We can imagine the naysayers claiming that we are replacing the most physical forward on the team with a 5-foot-9 player known to be fragile in the past. But we still think it would be worth a try.
[Note: I want to thank long-time Maple Leafs fan Stan Smith for collaborating with me on this post. Stan’s Facebook profile can be found here.]