It’s old news by now that the Toronto Maple Leafs fired Sheldon Keefe and hired Craig Berube to replace him. Any Maple Leafs fan who doesn’t know this must live under a rock.
However, we don’t yet know how Berube’s hiring will affect the team. There are a few things we do know. When we compare Berube’s style of coaching in the past to Keefe’s, we can surmise that the team will play a more straightforward game. Berube stated in his inaugural press conference that it would be more of a straight-line, north/south type of game. From his past as a player and coach, we can also guess that more emphasis will be placed on the physical and defensive side of things. While he seems to have had good relationships with his past players, it is generally acknowledged that he demands accountability from his players.
Berube expressed his excitement about coaching a team with the Maple Leafs’ high-end talent. We don’t know how those high-end players will react to his hard-nosed coaching style. Time will tell how it all plays out.
A Deeper Dive Into Berube’s NHL Coaching Career
Berube’s first head coaching gig was with the team that signed him as a 20-year-old free agent right out of juniors in 1986: the Philadelphia Flyers. In his first season behind the bench in 2013-14, the Flyers finished in third place in the Metropolitan Division with a 42-30-10 record and lost in the first round of the playoffs in a tight seven-game series to the New York Rangers.
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The following season, the Flyers dropped to sixth place in their division with a record of 33-31-18. Berube was fired at the end of the 2014-15 season.
One Shining Moment with the Blues: The 2019 Stanley Cup
Berube’s next NHL head coaching job was with the St. Louis Blues. He was given the job on an interim basis after the Blues fired Mike Yeo on Nov. 19, 2018. In his first 18 games behind the St. Louis bench, the Blues had a dismal 7-10-1 record and were in last place overall in the 31-team NHL on Jan. 1, 2019.
(AP Photo/Charles Krupa)
The next 14 months and 11 days would be a wild ride for the Blues and Berube. From Jan. 1 to the end of the regular season, the Blues went 31-9-6, which was the best record of any team in the NHL from New Year’s Day on. St. Louis would climb from last in the Central Division to third.
In the 2019 postseason, the Blues went 16-10 in 26 games, disposing of the Winnipeg Jets, Dallas Stars, San Jose Sharks, and Boston Bruins before hoisting the Stanley Cup.
The Blues carried the momentum from the win into the 2019-20 season. In the pandemic-shortened season, they finished first in the Central and second overall in the NHL with a 42-19-10 record in 71 games.
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Things went south quickly from that point for Berube and the Blues. They had a miserable postseason. This next stat is an oddity created by the strange format of the 2020 Playoffs. They went 2-7. While the teams that finished fifth to 12th participated in a “play-in” round, the top four teams in each conference played a three-game round-robin to decide the seeding for the next round. St. Louis lost all three of the round-robin games they played. They then lost in what would be the first round in an average year four games to two to the Vancouver Canucks. Thus, their 2-7 record.
Berube’s Blues Fall From Grace in the NHL
The following season, also shortened due to the pandemic, the Blues finished fourth in the West Division with a 27-20-9 record and lost to the Avalanche four games straight in the first round of the playoffs.
The end of the pandemic saw the NHL’s 2021-22 season return to normal. The Blues finished third in the Central with a 49-22-11 record. They defeated the Minnesota Wild in Round 1 of the postseason four games to two but again lost to the Avalanche by the exact four-games-to-two count.
(AP Photo/John Locher)
The 2022-23 season saw the Blues fall to sixth place in the Central and out of the playoffs with a 37-38-7 record. After St. Louis began the 2023-24 season 13-14-1, they relieved Berube of his job as head coach.
The Three Segments of Berube’s NHL Coaching Career
We can split Berube’s NHL coaching career into three segments.
Segment #1: Before Jan. 1, 2019
Regular Season
| GP | Wins | Losses | OT/SO Losses | Win % |
| 179 | 82 | 68 | 29 | .539% |
Playoffs
| GP | Wins | Losses | Win % |
| 7 | 3 | 4 | .429% |
Segment #2: From Jan. 1, 2019 to March 11, 2020
Regular Season
| GP | Wins | Losses | OT/SO Losses | Win % |
| 134 | 80 | 38 | 16 | .657% |
Playoffs
| GP | Wins | Losses | Win % |
| 26 | 16 | 10 | .615% |
Segment #3: After March 11, 2020
Regular Season
| GP | Wins | Losses | OT/SO Losses | Win % |
| 248 | 126 | 94 | 28 | .564% |
Playoffs
| GP | Wins | Losses | Win % |
| 25 | 8 | 17 | .320% |
If we combine Segment #1 and Segment #3, we get the following:
Regular Season
| GP | Wins | Losses | OT/SO Losses | Win % |
| 427 | 208 | 162 | 57 | .554% |
One thing to note is that it usually takes 95 to 97 points to make the playoffs. That amounts to a winning percentage between .580% and .590%. Berube’s overall winning percentage before and after the 14-month run between Jan. 1, 2019, and March 11, 2020, was lower than that needed to make the postseason.
Playoffs
| GP | Wins | Losses | Win % |
| 32 | 11 | 21 | .344% |
Berube Has Had a Horrible Postseason Win/Loss Record
Outside of the one playoff run to the Stanley Cup, Berube’s postseason win/loss record is atrocious at .344%. By comparison, Keefe’s win/loss record in the playoffs over the five seasons behind the Maple Leafs’ bench was 16-21 in 37 games, or a .432% winning percentage.
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Many other factors are at play for any coach on any NHL team. While he might have some input into the players who play for him, he does not get to pick them himself. He has to play what the general manager provides him with. It’s safe to say Keefe had more high-end talent to work with than Berube.
If we look at Berube’s coaching career, we see two years of mediocrity, 14 months of brilliance, and four more years of middling success. It will be interesting to see what version of Berube the Maple Leafs get. They’ve bet the bank on him. Can he deliver with interest?
[Note: I want to thank long-time Maple Leafs fan Stan Smith for collaborating with me on this post. Stan’s Facebook profile can be found here.]
