In a recent article for The Athletic, analytics expert Dom Luszczyszyn delivers a critical analysis of the Toronto Maple Leafs‘ playoff performance, highlighting a concerning trend that has plagued the team for several seasons. That is the shift towards a conservative, risk-averse style of play that has undermined the team’s success on the ice.
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Luszczyszyn’s thesis – based on analytical evidence – is that because the Maple Leafs worked hard to establish themselves as contenders, they tried to mimic what they believed was ideal playoff hockey – tight-checking, defensive-minded, and risk-averse. They cared too much about not making mistakes and too little about assertively creating offence and scoring. By doing so, they played into the other team’s hands. In this postseason’s case, they allowed the Boston Bruins to set the style of the game and were reluctant to embrace their offensive strengths and assert their unique talents and abilities as a team.
(Photo by Kevin Sousa/NHLI via Getty Images)
Luszczyszyn’s analysis highlights the Maple Leafs’ adoption of a “play it safe” mentality, prioritizing defensive stability over offensive aggression. However, this approach backfired because the team sacrificed its strength—a dynamic offence—for a conservative style of play. The result? Focusing on perfect defensive games resulted in playoff disappointment yet again. Even after the team pulled off two almost-perfect defensive wins, they came one third-period goal short of winning (from “The Maple Leafs changed how they play in the playoffs and lost because of it,” Dom Luszczyszyn, The Athletic, 5/8/24).
3 Reasons the Maple Leafs Lost Their First-Round Series to the Bruins
Luszczyszyn presents three key reasons the Maple Leafs lost to the Bruins in the playoffs.
Reason 1: The Maple Leafs Abandoned Their Identity
The Maple Leafs’ failure to establish and adhere to their offensive identity was detrimental to their success. Rather than playing to their strengths as a fast-paced, high-scoring team, they chose a risk-averse approach that stifled their creativity and limited their ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities.
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Reason 2: The Maple Leafs Underutilized Their Offensive Talent
Despite boasting elite offensive talent in players like Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and Mitch Marner, the Maple Leafs struggled to leverage their skills effectively in the playoffs. The team’s emphasis on limiting defensive breakdowns stifled their offensive abilities, resulting in decreased production and missed scoring chances.
Reason 3: The Maple Leafs Lacked Offensive Assertiveness
The Maple Leafs often appeared passive and reactive in these postseason playoff matchups. They failed to dictate the game’s pace or assert themselves against the Bruins. Their reluctance to take calculated risks and assert offensive dominance left them vulnerable to Boston’s aggressiveness.
Steps the Maple Leafs Should Take in the Future
The big mistake the Maple Leafs made was trying to be an ideal playoff team. In doing so, they forgot to be themselves. They played against their identity instead of leveraging it into intense offence and winning hockey. If they are to win during the postseason, they have to worry less about perfection and concern themselves with decisive action and an aggressive offence that works to reclaim their identity and improve their playoff performance.
Step One: The Maple Leafs Must Embrace Their Offensive Strengths
The Maple Leafs must prioritize offensive aggression and creativity, leveraging their skilled playmakers to generate scoring chances and dictate the game’s flow. By playing to their strengths, they can create a high-tempo, assertive style of hockey that puts constant pressure on opponents.
Step Two: The Maple Leafs Must Maximize Their Offensive Talent
The Maple Leafs must effectively utilize their offensive talent to succeed in the playoffs, particularly players like Matthews, Nylander, and Marner. By empowering these players to show their skills and take on a leadership role, the Maple Leafs can unlock their full offensive potential and compete at a higher level.
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Step Three: The Maple Leafs Must Dare to Cultivate Assertiveness
The Maple Leafs must assert their confidence in playoff matchups, refusing to back down against opponents. By taking calculated risks and asserting offensive dominance, they can control the game’s pace and increase their chances of success in critical moments. They spent too much time reacting and too little time forcing their opponents to react to them.
The Bottom Line if the Maple Leafs Want to Win the Stanley Cup
The dominance of teams like the Florida Panthers and Edmonton Oilers this postseason supports Luszczyszyn’s thesis regarding the Maple Leafs’ playoff struggles. In contrast to the Maple Leafs’ conservative style of play, these teams have embraced offensive aggression and assertiveness. They are overwhelming their opponents and dictating the flow of the game.
While the Maple Leafs allowed Jeremy Swayman to look unbeatable, by contrast, the Panthers have made the Bruins’ goalie look vulnerable. At the same time, the Oilers’ relentless offensive pressure in Friday night’s third period exemplifies the effectiveness of playing to offensive strengths rather than prioritizing defensive stability. Canucks goalie Arturs Silovs was stellar; yet, in the end, he was simply overwhelmed. Despite giving up goals on the occasion breakdown, the Panthers and the Oilers have demonstrated that offensive assertiveness can lead to success in crucial playoff matchups. They highlight the shortcomings of a risk-averse approach like that of the Maple Leafs.
Good Teams, Not Perfect Ones, Win Stanley Cups
In light of recent playoff performances, it’s becoming increasingly evident that the long-held belief that playoff hockey must switch to a defensive, physical style of play is outdated. Yes, good defence and goalie play help teams win. Yet, shutting down your team’s offence to play perfect defence is wrong-minded. Ironically, the Maple Leafs focused on not playing offensive hockey and then wondered where its offence went. You can’t have it both ways.
Instead, successful postseason teams show the importance of building strong, cohesive units that capitalize on their offensive strengths. During Friday’s (May 10) press conference, organizational leadership admitted that the Maple Leafs lost because they couldn’t score. This is not rocket science. The belief that teams must play perfect defensive games to win Stanley Cups is rightfully being challenged. It’s becoming increasingly clear that good teams that effectively leverage their offensive talents and play assertive hockey have the best chance of playoff success.
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Now, what for the Maple Leafs? This postseason, their adherence to a conservative, risk-averse style of play cost them in the playoffs. Even without Nylander and Matthews playing at 100 percent, they had the offence to win. Yet, they gave it up in their attempt to play perfect defence. It didn’t work.
For this Maple Leafs team to achieve its championship goals, it has to figure out and perfect its identity both in the regular season and during the postseason. Changing the script so radically during the postseason caused them to lose sight of their offensive identity and talent.
They became a dull, risk-averse team. In the end, they lost. How could it have been otherwise?