Following the meltdown of their goaltending and only registering one win in their last six games, the Toronto Maple Leafs have lost as many games as they have won this season. Their record after 34 games stands at 17-10-7. They have 41 out of a possible 68 points, which officially gives them a 0.602 winning percentage. However, if the NHL were not giving a point to a team losing in overtime or a shootout, the Maple Leafs record to this point of the season would be 17-17.
This is the first time the Maple Leafs have entered a new year without more wins than losses since the 2016-17 season when they were 16-12-7 on New Year’s Day. That was the season that Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander first skated together as part of the Maple Leafs core.
The Maple Leafs Are Experiencing Two Big Issues
The combination of a team that has struggled defensively and a starting goalie that has given up four or more goals in the majority of his starts are the two causes of the problem. A goalie just can’t help his team when he sports a goals-against-average (GAA) of almost four (3.94) and a save percentage of 0.862. Those numbers rank 57th in the NHL according to ESPN. No wonder the Maple Leafs have struggled to win games.
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Because of greater parity in the league and more specifically the Eastern Conference and Atlantic Divison, the Maple Leafs still find themselves in a playoff spot. They are tied for third place in the Atlantic Division with the Tampa Bay Lightning with 41 points. If they were to fall a point behind the Lightning, they would be clinging precariously to the last wild-card spot in the East. In this spot, they would be one point ahead of three teams – the Washington Capitals, the Pittsburgh Penguins, and the New Jersey Devils. Fortunately, Toronto does have games in hand over everyone but the Capitals.
However, if the Maple Leafs don’t get their act together and find a way to start winning games, they can soon find themselves out of a playoff spot.
Signs of Improvement in the Maple Leafs Play
There are signs of improvement for the club though. In five of their last six games at five-on-five, according to Naturalstattrick.com, they have averaged just six high-danger scoring chances a game against them while generating almost eleven of their own. They have also averaged 1.74 Expected-Goals Against per game at five-on-five. Their defensive play is improving.
The Maple Leafs have Timothy Liljegren and Mark Giordano back. Simon Benoit and William Lagesson had done a decent job filling in for those two players while they were injured. Most of the team’s recent losses have been either because Samsonov (11 goals on 29 shots) couldn’t stop the puck or because their offense failed to score more than two goals (three of their last six games).
Likely the Goalie Who Replaces Samsonov Will Be Better
Now Samsonov has been placed on waivers. The odds are good that whoever replaces him will be better. Martin Jones has played respectably since he was called up from the American Hockey League (AHL). After eight appearances, he has a 0.915 save percentage and a 2.73 GAA.
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It appears the goalie who will get the first crack at replacing Samsonov is 22-year-old, 6-foot-7 Dennis Hildeby. He has played extremely well for the AHL Toronto Marlies. He carries a 0.919 save percentage and a 2.22 GAA in the AHL. Joseph Woll, who won the starting job before being injured, will be back eventually. His record was 8-5-1 with a 0.916 save percentage and a 2.80 GAA.
Some Good Things Are Going for This Maple Leafs Team
Although things look shakier at this point of the season than they have in seven years, the Maple Leafs still have a lot going for them. They have the best goal scorer in the league in Matthews. Also, Nylander is leading the team in overall scoring and is on pace to score 40 goals and 115 points. The team also has Marner, who, in most people’s opinions, has struggled this season. Still, Marner has put up 38 points in 34 games. They also have defenseman Morgan Rielly averaging over 24 minutes per game and is on pace to score 65 points this season.
If we put all that together, the Maple Leafs have: (1) arguably the best one, two, three scoring punch in the league; (2) are starting to play better defensively; and, (3) have divested themselves of one of the worst statistical goalies in the NHL.
All these factors mean they should be able to hold their own in the Eastern Conference. The odds website Moneypuck.com has the chances of the Maple Leafs making the playoffs at 85.7%.
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While there is plenty to be concerned about, there is no need to panic yet. That said, the Maple Leafs do need to get their act together and they need to do it soon.
[Note: I want to thank long-time Maple Leafs fan Stan Smith for collaborating with me on this post. Stan’s Facebook profile can be found here.]