As the Toronto Maple Leafs play game two of the team’s current western road trip, there’s a huge amount of speculation surrounding the Maple Leafs and a potential coaching change. Is a shake-up being discussed – probably even as you are reading these words?
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One thing that’s easy to see is that readers of THW posts are engaged in myriad conversations amongst themselves that raise questions about the future of head coach Sheldon Keefe. On one hand, it’s easy to see why such rumors are running rampant. The Maple Leafs have been playing inconsistent hockey this season, and as hard as Keefe works to improve the team’s play, it hasn’t yet happened.
Maple Leafs’ Play Has Been Inconsistent Recently
It’s also easy to link an inconsistent regular season that generates loss after loss with discussions about the future of the team’s head coach. One group of so-called hockey analysts, who seem to be searching for straws, have even pulled Keefe’s comments that praised another team’s (the Colorado Avalanche’s) top line as dissing his own team’s talent level. While, on the one hand, such uncorrelated clickbait (in my opinion) seems ludicrous when it’s considered seriously, it still generates conversation. And, where there’s smoke, there’s fire – right?
The fact is that Keefe could be fired, even before you read this post. It’s happened already this season with former Stanley Cup winner Craig Berube in St. Louis and Jay Woodcroft in Edmonton. It happens regularly in the NHL’s carousel of coaching changes.
All these conversations, dancing around in the ether, suggest that it might be wise to rationally consider the issue. To make my point of view clear, I don’t believe that Keefe should be fired. I don’t believe any rational perspective supports that course of action.
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Still, there are points either way. In this post, I mean to explore them honestly. Here are the key factors, as I see them, that are shaping the arguments for and against firing the Maple Leafs head coach.
Reasons for Firing Sheldon Keefe
Reason One: Inconsistencies Between Keefe’s Regular Season and Postseason Records
Despite always putting up a commendable regular-season record, Keefe has faced consistent criticism for playoff performances. His teams have won only a single playoff round, and there are arguments that he’s often been outcoached in critical series. The recent four-game stretch of blowing leads raises concerns about the team’s overall strategy and in-game adjustments.
Reason Two: There Is a Need for a New Approach for the Maple Leafs
Some argue that the Maple Leafs, a team loaded with elite talents like Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander, need a coach with a different approach. The call for a coach like Berube, who has a Stanley Cup under his belt with the Blues, reflects the desire for a fresh perspective.
Reason Three: The Maple Leafs Are Struggling Defensively
The Maple Leafs’ team defense and poor goaltending have been sources of concern. Some critics argue that Keefe hasn’t been able to address these challenges effectively. The defensive core (on the blue line) is considered subpar, and the goalie situation, despite Martin Jones’s surprisingly strong play, is deemed insufficient for a Stanley Cup-contending team.
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Reason Four: A Coaching Change Would Offer the Team an Immediate “Bump”
If the Maple Leafs are to have a chance of winning the Stanley Cup this season, history suggests that a coaching change could offer the team a short-term improvement. That happened with the Oilers when they replaced Woodcroft with Kris Knoblauch. When he took over on Nov. 13, the team was out of the playoffs, and now, they are playing solidly (their win over the Maple Leafs was their 11th straight) and are back firmly in the postseason.
Reasons Against Firing Sheldon Keefe
Reason One: Keefe Has an Impressive Regular-Season Record
Keefe boasts the fifth most wins in team history and a remarkable .669 winning percentage. He’s shown his ability to guide the team successfully through the regular season. Supporters argue that these regular-season accomplishments should not be overlooked.
Reason Two: Keefe Has Had Limited Resources
This season has been a tough one for injuries, and Keefe has been dealing with limitations in terms of the defensive lineup and goaltending. The presence of players like Simon Benoit, William Lagesson, and Connor Timmins as part of the defensive core is seen as a challenge beyond Keefe’s control. As well, supporters wonder why he could be blamed for Ilya Samsonov’s struggles or Joseph Woll’s injuries. The current starting goalie, Martin Jones, passed through waivers because no one wanted him and began the season in the AHL. For good or ill, he’s what the team has in the crease.
Reason Three: Keefe Is Willing to Make Tough Lineup Adjustments
Supporters point toward Keefe’s adaptability. This can be seen in his recent lineup adjustments, including placing Pontus Holmberg on the team’s top line, where he has performed well. Keefe’s willingness to adapt and experiment for the benefit of the team has helped create a solid third line as well. Supporters appreciate the strategic changes and argue that firing Keefe might not solve the underlying issues.
The Bottom Line for Keefe
The bottom line is that the Maple Leafs as an organization might decide to part ways with Coach Keefe, or it might decide to retain him. The decision will be a tough one. The grounding for any organizational decision depends upon the team’s regular-season success – and the next weeks until the end of the All-Star break might be a key to Keefe’s future.
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From my perspective, I understand the points made by both sides of the argument. That said, the team has been constructed in a particular way. Former GM Kyle Dubas believed a core of elite talent, augmented by change on the edges, could bring postseason success. And, for all his differences, current GM Treliving didn’t change a thing.
I believe the team is what it is, and it’s time to see if the current construction of players and philosophies can win or not. As I wrote earlier this week, the team’s trade deadline philosophy (led by GM Dubas) was to go for the home run – to find a player(s) who could be the tipping point to push the team over the edge in a positive way. It was costly and didn’t work. The team is poorer for that philosophy.
(Photo by Darcy Finley/NHLI via Getty Images)
To me, a coaching change at this point in the season would only be made for that similar wrong-minded reason. The organization would be looking for a new coach who would be a tipping point to push the team over the edge.
The team is what it is and has been built. If it can’t do the job again this season, then consider changes. However, a change at this point is simply a knee-jerk reaction. It seeks outside piece-meal and external help when the most effective help would be a culture shift that can only come from the inside.
My bottom line is that the team that has been constructed needs to do it themselves. To answer the question in the title, Keefe doesn’t deserve to be fired – at least, not right now.