Maple Leafs & Mitch Marner Are at a Crossroads

To put it mildly, Mitch Marner will have a memorable offseason. He’s become a focal point of discussion for the Toronto Maple Leafs and their fanbase. Following last Friday’s press conference that hinted at significant on-ice changes led by general manager (GM) Brad Treliving and president Brendan Shanahan, speculation has intensified regarding the future of the team’s core players. In that speculation, Marner seems to be on the hot seat.

Despite his hefty contract, Marner has attracted interest from other teams, leading to trade proposals and questions about his willingness to waive his no-move clause. Given that the Maple Leafs organization feels forced to break up the idea that a Core Four (or Core Five, counting defenceman Morgan Rielly) must be gonzo, they are now forced into a situation where “any move seems like a good one.”

Related: NHL Rumors: Avalanche, Oilers, Maple Leafs

Given that Auston Matthews is untouchable, William Nylander just signed a massive extension, and John Tavares has a no-move clause that would seem illogical to expect him to revoke, that places Marner amid a tsunami of rumours flooding in about potential suitors and upcoming contract negotiations. Although Marner holds considerable leverage in trade discussions, he also hinted at feeling the pressure of playing in Toronto. Given his recent marriage, might he find life more comfortable outside the glaring Toronto spotlight?

The dynamic nature of Marner’s offseason presents a challenging scenario for GM Treliving and the Maple Leafs organization as they navigate the possibility of significant roster changes. This post will consider three questions centering around Marner and his upcoming offseason.

Question 1: Should the Maple Leafs Consider Moving Him This Offseason?

The speculation surrounding Marner’s future with the Maple Leafs has reached a crescendo. Could there be a potential trade? Despite his undeniable talent and on-ice contributions to the team, some believe that moving Marner could be in the best interest of both parties.

Related: Revisiting Maple Leafs & Marner’s 2019 Contract Negotiations

However, there are strong arguments against such a move. Marner’s on-ice performance, including his power play and penalty kill contributions, has been outstanding. Few would argue that he’s not a valuable team asset. Additionally, the potential return in a trade is uncertain, and the risk of losing a player of Marner’s caliber could outweigh any trade benefits. What are the reasons for and against moving him this offseason?

Reasons For Moving Marner This Offseason

It would make sense to move Marner this offseason for four reasons.

1. Financial Flexibility: Trading Marner could free up valuable salary cap space for the Maple Leafs. It would allow them to address other areas of need in their lineup or pursue additional talent in free agency or trade. Also, given the contentious last round of salary negotiations with Marner’s agent, Darren Ferris, a move could avoid that drama.
2. Potential Trade Return: Marner’s value on the trade market could be significant. He’s a good player, and teams are interested. He could bring the Maple Leafs valuable assets, such as draft picks, prospects, or established NHL players, to bolster their roster.
3. Performance Concerns: Marner’s playoff play has raised concerns. Both fans and hockey pundits have questioned his ability to deliver in high-pressure situations. Moving him could alleviate this issue and allow the team to acquire players better suited for postseason success.
4. Strategic Realignment: Trading Marner could allow the Maple Leafs to reallocate resources and build a more balanced roster, addressing weaknesses and enhancing their long-term competitiveness.

Reasons Against Moving Marner This Offseason:

It would make sense not to move Marner this offseason for four reasons.

1. On-Ice Contributions: Marner’s on-ice contributions, including his power play and penalty-kill abilities, make him a valuable asset to the Maple Leafs. He’s been a fundamental part of the team’s success, and losing him could significantly impact the team’s play.
2. Uncertain Trade Return: While trading Marner could yield valuable assets, there’s no guarantee that the Maple Leafs would receive equal value in exchange. The risk of losing a player of Marner’s caliber without comparable compensation could outweigh the benefits of a trade.
3. Fan Backlash: While the mood currently seems to lean toward trading Marner, given the harsh reality of the situation, it could lead to backlash from the fans. Part of the fanbase has grown attached to him as a player. There’s also the potential for adverse reactions from the team – especially Matthews – which could impact team morale.
4. Long-Term Implications: Marner is still a young and talented player with the potential for further growth and development. Trading him could have long-term implications for the team’s competitiveness and future success, especially if he thrives elsewhere in the NHL.

Related: Maple Leafs Need to Pursue Nikita Zadorov This Offseason

Question 2: How Good is Mitch Marner as an NHL Player?

The debate over Marner’s value as an NHL player is multifaceted. Opinions vary among fans and analysts. While some view him as a top-tier right-winger, others question his performance in high-pressure playoff situations. Critics point to an excessive salary that does not translate into solid playoff performance as evidence of his shortcomings. However, his supporters highlight his on-ice leadership, playmaking abilities, and contributions as a 200-foot player. Ultimately, his status as an elite NHL player remains a topic of debate, with no definitive answer.

Reasons Mitch Marner Is a Great Player for the Maple Leafs:

Marner has proven to be a great NHL player for four reasons.

1. Offensive Production: Marner consistently contributes offensively. He leads the team in assists and often ranks among the top point scorers. His playmaking ability and vision on the ice make him valuable in generating scoring opportunities.
2. Versatility: Marner’s versatility allows him to excel in various roles, including on the power play and penalty kill. His ability to contribute in all situations makes him a valuable and reliable player for the team.
3. Leadership Qualities: Marner has demonstrated leadership qualities on and off the ice. His work ethic, dedication, and commitment to the team’s success serve as an example for his teammates. He’s a positive presence in the locker room.
4. Fan Connection: Marner’s connection with the fanbase, highlighted by his love for the city and team, fosters a strong sense of community and support. His charitable work has been a vital aspect of his offseason value in the community, and his popularity among some fans adds value beyond his on-ice contributions. He contributes to the team’s overall culture and identity.

Reasons Mitch Marner Isn’t a Great Player for the Maple Leafs:

There are four critiques of Marner as a great NHL player.

1. Playoff Performance: Marner’s performance in the playoffs has been inconsistent. Some critics question his ability to elevate his game in high-pressure situations, and his lack of production during crucial playoff moments has raised concerns about his reliability in clutch situations.
2. Contract Value: Marner’s contract, which carries a significant salary cap hit, has drawn criticism for being disproportionate to his on-ice performance. Some argue that his salary places undue pressure on the team’s salary cap and limits their ability to address other roster needs.

1. Defensive Play: While Marner excels offensively, there are questions about his defensive play and ability to contribute in his own end. Critics point to lapses in coverage and defensive zone turnovers as areas where he could improve to become a more complete player.
2. Expectations vs. Reality: Marner’s high expectations as a top-tier player may sometimes overshadow the reality of his contributions. While he is undoubtedly talented, some fans and analysts believe he has yet to fully deliver on his potential as a game-changing player for the Maple Leafs.

Question 3: Would Marner Personally Benefit From a Trade?

As speculation surrounding Marner’s future continues, questions arise about whether he would personally benefit from a trade. He has expressed his desire to remain with the Maple Leafs. However, concerns about media scrutiny and fan pressure have led some to speculate that he might be willing to move to another team. Additionally, the financial implications of his contract negotiations raise questions about his long-term future with the team. Ultimately, the decision to trade him would have implications for both him and the Maple Leafs, with potential benefits and drawbacks to consider.

Related: Maple Leafs Management Sending Mixed Messages to Fans  

Reasons Mitch Marner Might Be Better Off Staying in Toronto:

There are four reasons Marner would be better off staying in Toronto.

1. Emotional Connection: Marner’s connection to Toronto is deep. This is where he grew up and has spent his entire NHL career. Staying with the Maple Leafs would bring him a sense of familiarity, comfort, and belonging.
2. Supportive Fanbase: Despite criticism, many Maple Leafs’ fans appreciate his talent and contributions to the team. These Toronto fans could positively impact his motivation to succeed.
3. Leadership Role: As a core player and leader within the organization, Marner can continue growing his leadership role and influence both on and off the ice. Staying in Toronto allows him to develop as a team leader.
4. Championship Aspirations: Marner’s desire to win a Stanley Cup with the Maple Leafs aligns with the team’s goals. Staying in Toronto allows him to pursue the goal of bringing a championship to the city where he has deep roots.

Reasons Mitch Marner Might Be Better Off Moving to a New Team:

There are four reasons Marner would be better off leaving Toronto.

1. Fresh Start: Moving to a new team could give Marner a fresh start and a chance to rejuvenate his career in a different (and less pressure-packed) environment. A change of scenery might reignite his passion for the game and allow him to thrive in a new role or system.
2. Contract Negotiations: Contract negotiations with the Maple Leafs could be challenging, particularly regarding salary-cap constraints and the prospect of contentious discussions. Moving to a new team could offer Marner greater financial flexibility and control over his future contract. He would be welcomed with open arms and without baggage.
3. Reduced Pressure: In a new market, Marner would face less scrutiny and pressure compared to the intense spotlight of Toronto. A team where he might be met with lower expectations or media attention could alleviate some of the stress and allow him to focus solely on his on-ice game.
4. Potential Trade Suitors: Marner’s talent and playmaking ability make him an attractive asset for other teams, increasing the likelihood of finding a suitable trade partner willing to offer favourable terms or assets in return. Exploring chances with another team could lead to a beneficial outcome for both Marner and the Maple Leafs.

The Bottom Line for Marner and the Maple Leafs

The questions of what the Maple Leafs should do with Marner and what Marner should want for himself are bubbling. These questions are complex, and the debate over his future with the Maple Leafs is just as complex. He is a great young player. Yet, the question remains whether he’d be better off elsewhere and if the organization would be better off if he moved.

It could be a really interesting summer in Toronto.

[Note: I want to thank long-time Maple Leafs fan Stan Smith for collaborating with me on this post. Stan’s Facebook profile can be found here.]