Night in and night out, the expectation– for any team– is that the star players need to be the star players. Considering the market, everyone knows that the Toronto Maple Leafs star players need to be at their best or the heat will amp up for those that underperform. Essentially, that is what’s happening now with Mitch Marner.
With Auston Matthews being fifth in the league in goals, William Nylander’s hot start and John Tavares continuing to get better with age, Marner appears to be the only one of the core-four that really hasn’t had a string of standout performances. There were back-to-back four-point games against the Buffalo Sabres and Tampa Bay Lightning early in November. Other than that, he has looked average and not the game-breaking player we’ve known him to be.
Recently, Marner was pulled off the top line in place of Nylander, a move that head coach Sheldon Keefe probably should’ve done sooner as there were warning signs to his game. With the demotion to the second line, Marner is getting an opportunity to turn things around and get back to the level the team needs him to be at.
Player & Coach Know Things Need to Change
If there’s one thing to take away from Marner’s lack of game breaking play, it’s that both the player and the coach are on the same page. Keefe was very blunt about Marner’s play when he was asked about it before their matchup against the Pittsburgh Penguins. He talks about the execution and how the consistency hasn’t been there for his star winger.
Marner echoed that his game has been off. Namely, needing to be more “patient and not force anything.”
We have seen this narrative in the past with Marner when it comes to finding consistency or slow production– especially in the playoffs. In 2021-22, Marner had a slow start with 19 points in the first 23 games of the season and went on to finish with 33 goals and 97 points. This season is kind of a repeat from what we saw previously. Last season, we were talking about the massive point streak he had as he was consistent from beginning to end.
As the calendar is about to flip to December, Marner has 20 points in 19 games. While this isn’t a slow start production wise, he has gone quiet as of late with only three assists in his last seven games. For someone making $10.9 million, his decision making hasn’t been where it needs to be and the team needs more from him. There have been too many times this season, where Marner’s shift to shift consistency hasn’t been there. One shift, he would be great, showing the creative and playmaking abilities. Others, he would be quiet or right when you expect him to do something, he forces a play or tries to do too much.
That has been the biggest problem for Marner this season. We know how effective he can be as a creative and deceptive playmaker and when he’s on his game he’s one of the best players with the puck. But when he does too much, he tends to overcomplicate things, panics under pressure and doesn’t make smart decisions. That becomes a problem as it results in nothing or turning the puck over and it’s a rush chance for the opposition.
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Marner is at his best when he can take control of a shift. That hasn’t happened consistently this season and maybe some time away from Matthews could motivate him.
Chemistry With Tavares Remains
This season when Matthews and Marner are together at five-on-five, they have an expected goals for percentage of 51.05% and a scoring chances for percentage of 51.74. The results have been better in the past, but it’s been a mixed bag in 2023-24.
This isn’t the first time that Marner and Nylander have swapped spots. Matthews and Nylander have great chemistry themselves and this switch could definitely help Marner to find his game and get back to that game-changing level. From 2021-22 to 2023-24– over 800 minutes and 167 games played– with Tavares at 5-on-5, Marner is still effective and can be impactful. Here’s a breakdown of their underlying numbers.
| CF% | xGF% | GF% | SCF% | HDGF% |
| 52.53 | 53.76 | 56.76 | 57.34 | 56.41 |
While fans are so accustomed to seeing Matthews and Marner together, Tavares and Marner have been just as effective in regards to shot generation and scoring chances. They’ve had chemistry in the past and they complement each other well. Marner likes to change the pace of the game often and draw opponents in to spot Tavares in front of the net or open ice. Even defensively, it makes them much better as he has the ability to hunt down pucks and break up plays.
This is definitely something that can benefit Marner in the hopes that it can jump start his play and find the consistency to his game when he has the puck. Once he does, look for him to find the scoresheet often like that season in 21-22. He definitely can find himself back on the top line. Or if Keefe wants to keep a strong balance, he can keep Marner on the second line if Nylander continues to be a driving force on the top line.
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Marner is an important factor with his skill and energy. He needs to start finding that sooner rather than later.
Marner Can Turn Things Around
Marner has been in this spot before, but it’s one that can be avoidable. Even the best players have rough stretches from time to time, but for Marner, we have seen this often. Especially in the postseason where he makes costly mistakes at critical moments.
It’s clear that Marner hasn’t lived up to his potential of what he’s capable of showing this season. And we’ve seen him at his dominant self. There isn’t any doubt that he can come out on top and find his groove again. His effort needs to be consistent and he can’t lose sight of what makes him effective and lethal. When he’s one step ahead of the competition and playing at a fast pace, that’s when he’s in control and at his best.
Being a star player in his eighth season, he needs to be relied on consistently as his current stretch of play can’t happen.
Statistics from Natural Stat Trick, ESPN and NHL.