In this edition of Toronto Maple Leafs News & Rumors, I’ll take a look at why the Maple Leafs probably won’t go after Ivan Barbashev as a free-agent signing. Second, I’ll look at a similar case in Nazem Kadri and explore his scoring decline after a stellar 2021-22 season.
Third, I’ll report that former Maple Leafs’ draftee Sean Durzi was traded to the Arizona Coyotes from the Los Angeles Kings. Fourth, I’ll talk about the news of a potential announcement that Sheldon Keefe will return as head coach. Finally, I’ll take a look at a potential Maple Leafs’ free-agent target, Evan Rodrigues.
Item One: Why the Maple Leafs Won’t Go After Ivan Barbashev
Ivan Barbashev drew a lot of attention with his great postseason play that helped lead the Vegas Golden Knights to a Stanley Cup championship. He’s a solid player who now has won two Cups. He’s also the kind of player who will be on the radar of many NHL teams, including the Maple Leafs.
Related: Revisiting the Brent Burns Trade
However, despite his skill set and recent playoff performance, there’s little chance that the Maple Leafs would be able to sign Barbashev in the free-agent market. Even if they did, such a signing would come with significant risks. Most significant is that his strong postseason will drive up his value, potentially past the level of his commensurate worth.
Barbashev had one 60-point season with the St. Louis Blues in 2021-22. Last season, between the Blues and the Golden Knights he put up 45 points. However, prior to those two seasons, he’d never registered as high as 30 points. Now, is there a chance he’ll become the most overpaid free agent of the summer? There’s a good chance that such a bidding war would push his salary far past a level that matches his on-ice value.
(Photo by Michael Martin/NHLI via Getty Images)
Likely, Barbashev’s contract demands will be high; and, there’s a good chance his future scoring production will be lower than that salary would justify. While he brings value, the potential gamble probably outweighs the benefits. He’s a risky proposition for any team – especially the Maple Leafs. Look for him to sign with another team.
Item Two: Kadri Returns to Earth After Stellar 2021-22 Season
Thinking about Barbashev reminds me of what happened with Kadri after his Stanley Cup-winning season with the Colorado Avalanche. In the 2021-22 season with the Avalanche, he had an amazing season. He scored 28 goals and added 59 assists (for 87 points) in 71 games. That season, he had a plus-13 rating. However, in the 2022-23 season with the Calgary Flames, his numbers declined. He scored 24 goals and added 32 assists (for 56 points) in 82 games. His plus/minus rating was a minus-19.
Related: Toronto Maple Leafs: Revisiting the Nazem Kadri Trade
The fact is that last season’s 56 points were more in line with Kadri’s history. In fact, it was his third-highest point total ever in the 14 NHL seasons he’s played. He had put up 61 points with the Maple Leafs in 2016-17, which was his second-highest ever. Kadri is a solid player and valuable to any team, but is he worth the $7 million he’ll be paid for six more seasons until he’s 39 years old? Perhaps not.
Item Three: Sean Durzi Traded to Coyotes
Sean Durzi was drafted by the Maple Leafs in the second round (52nd overall) of the 2018 NHL Entry Draft. On June 24, the former draft pick was traded from the Kings to the Coyotes in exchange for a second-round draft pick in 2024.
Durzi was traded to the Kings in January 2019 as part of a deal for defenseman Jake Muzzin. He found success with the Kings. Last season, he scored nine goals and added 29 assists (for 38 points) in 72 games.
The 24-year-old defenseman has another year left on his contract and becomes a restricted free agent (RFA) with arbitration rights at the end of the 2023-24 season.
Item Four: Will There Be a Sheldon Keefe Announcement Soon?
The Hockey News reported that the Maple Leafs will soon announce the return of Keefe as the head coach of the team. The prediction was that the announcement would come prior to the upcoming NHL Draft in Nashville. Questions about his status arose after the team was eliminated in the second round of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Related: Assessing Keefe’s Tenure as Maple Leafs’ Head Coach
When Kyle Dubas, the Maple Leafs’ general manager (GM) who hired Keefe, was replaced by Brad Treliving there was speculation that his days were numbered. However, Treliving spoke positively about Keefe in his introductory news conference and it looks like now he will be staying on.
The one detail left is whether Keefe will play out the final year of his contract or receive an extension. Because he has been involved in the process of interviewing candidates for a new assistant coach, it indicates he’s likely to return. As Maple Leafs’ fans know well, despite a strong regular season record of 166-71-30 in four seasons, he has only managed to coach a single playoff series win during his tenure as head coach.
What’s Next for the Maple Leafs?
In looking at the Maple Leafs and who they might pursue as free agents, one name comes to mind. That’s Evan Rodrigues. He had a brief stint with the team. On Aug. 25, 2020, the Pittsburgh Penguins traded Rodrigues, David Warsofsky, Filip Hallander, a first-round pick (which became Rodion Amirov) in the 2020 Draft to the Maple Leafs for Pontus Aberg, Kasperi Kapanen, and Jesper Lindgren.
But Rodrigues was not qualified by the Maple Leafs and, on Oct. 9, 2020, he signed with the Penguins. He could fill the team’s need for secondary scoring. He also comes with a bit of a competitive edge.
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In 2021-22, Rodrigues played for the Penguins and scored 19 goals and added 24 assists (for 43 points) in 82 games. In 2022-23, he moved to the Avalanche. There he played 69 games, scoring 16 goals and adding 23 assists (for 39 points).
His last contract was for $2 million. If Rodrigues could be signed for that kind of money, he could give the team about 40 points a season. That could help the Maple Leafs’ depth. He’s also from Toronto and might want to return home.