Thursday night’s Toronto Maple Leafs 4-3 comeback victory over the Calgary Flames was almost a complete reversal of their previous four games when they had jumped out to an early lead but couldn’t hold on. Last night, the Flames came out hot in the first period, but the Maple Leafs hung in there. Scoring a late-period goal, they took over the game, scored four in a row, and hung on for dear life.
With the Flames up 2-0 late in the first, captain Mikael Backlund rang a puck off the post on a breakaway chance that could have pushed their lead to 3-0. After that, Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and Mitch Marner turned it on. Matthews jumped on a mistake by Flames defenseman Nick DeSimone to score and that shifted the momentum in Toronto’s favor.
Matthews scored two more, with Marner adding his 19th goal on a 4-on-3 power play. Nylander had a couple of helpers, and the Maple Leafs held on. Give credit to Flames goalie Dan Vladar who kept his team in the game when the Maple Leafs put the pressure on, while Maple Leafs goalie Martin Jones made 24 saves for the win.
Item One: The Importance of Four Goals
Yesterday, in my News and Rumors post, I shared my regular co-writer, Stan Smith’s, notes on the significance of scoring four goals in NHL games. Last night was a perfect example. Stan’s number crunching has revealed that scoring more than three goals significantly tips the scales in favour of winning, with teams hitting the four or more goals mark enjoying an 80% or higher success rate. Contrastingly, teams scoring two or fewer goals face poorer odds of 25% or lower.
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The Maple Leafs had been struggling to score, averaging 2.5 goals per game in their four outings before the Flames game. Last night’s game supported Stan’s statistics; the Maple Leafs scored four goals; and, despite facing numerous challenges, they emerged victorious. This victory offered a tangible example of the statistical principles highlighted in his analysis.
Item Two: Auston Matthews Contributed to the Win
As noted, Matthews’ hat trick was the key to the team’s win on Thursday night. Capitalizing after Backlund was unable to extend his team’s lead, he scored a key momentum-shifting goal. He then took over the second period and scored the game-tying goal (with an assist from Nylander).
Later in the second period, Matthews played a key role in giving the Maple Leafs the lead when he assisted on Marner’s power-play goal. Finally, six minutes later, Matthews completed a hat trick when he outmuscled a Flames defender in the slot and scored on a backhander. Matthews was all over this win, and his hat trick extended his NHL-leading goal total to 37.
Item Three: Martin Jones Hangs in There
Jones had another solid game in the Maple Leafs’ net. He faced a barrage of 11 shots from the Flames in the first period and allowed two goals, including one on the power play by Nazem Kadri. Yet, he hung in there to turn away 23 of 26 shots and allowed his team to come back and score four straight to take control of the game.
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Jones has been reliable in net. He’s missed only one start over the past 10 games, and he’s put up an impressive .925 save percentage and a 2.12 goals-against average (GAA) in that span. While his team hasn’t always come through, he’s given them a chance.
Item Four: William Nylander Finally Puts Up Some Points
Nylander finally played a key role. On Thursday night, he registered two assists to help his team win. His playmaking abilities included the primary assist on one of Matthews’ three goals and an assist on Marner’s goal. That said, he finished with a minus-1 rating, so it wasn’t a perfect defensive effort from him.
Nylander has been in the midst of (for him this season) a long scoring drought without a point in his past four games. Fans have to hope his two-assist night will be the beginning of a positive turnaround. They will need him to beat the number one team in the NHL when they face the Vancouver Canucks on Saturday on the road.
Item Five: Bobby McMann Is Getting Production in the Bottom Six
Bobby McMann continued his recent offensive success by contributing an assist in the win over the Flames. Over the past five games, he’s put up three points to move his season total to seven.
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The 27-year-old Alberta native’s recent play is a positive trend. Suppose McMann can keep up his current level of productivity. In that case, he might hold onto his spot in the lineup ahead of players like Nick Robertson and Ryan Reaves (currently sidelined with a lower-body injury). It would be even better if could pass the 20-point mark for the season.
What’s Next for the Maple Leafs?
Thursday’s win ended Toronto’s four-game losing streak and improved their record to 22-13-8. Their ability to roar back on the strength of Matthews’ hat trick was a nice turnaround in their play.
Now the Maple Leafs need to carry that same momentum into their upcoming games against the Canucks and in Seattle against the Kraken on Sunday. Someone other than Jones is likely to get one of those games. While it’s likely to be Ilya Samsonov again, Joseph Woll is also travelling with the team. We’ll see.