In this edition of Toronto Maple Leafs News & Rumors, I’ll take a look at some of the key moves that new Maple Leafs general manager (GM) Brad Treliving must make. I’ll also look at the team’s first draft pick in last week’s Entry Draft to share how he’s feeling about being part of the team.
Third, I’ll look at the William Nylander negotiations to suggest that while he and the team seem far apart in the numbers they’re throwing across the table, he might be closest to accurate with his “out-of-line” ask. Finally, I’ll look at what I see as the most difficult upcoming negotiations upcoming, that being Mitch Marner’s negotiation next off-season. It promises to be the most contentious of all.
Item One: Whittling Down the Salary Cap for Samsonov
The Maple Leafs are facing salary-cap issues now that Treliving has brought in some key players. The immediate question is how to find the salary-cap space that allows the team to re-sign restricted free-agent goalie Ilya Samsonov, as the Maple Leafs currently are over the salary cap by $8.8 million. That can’t happen, and while it isn’t an issue right now, sooner or later, the team needs to be cap compliant. How? That’s the question.
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One potential move mentioned in the analysis is placing Jake Muzzin and his contract on long-term injured reserve, which would provide some relief but might not be sufficient to address the cap issue entirely. It is estimated that even with Muzzin on LTIR, the team would still be over the cap by $2.4 million for the upcoming season.
Moving goalie Matt Murray’s contract will also be part of any upcoming action. That contract is about $4.7 million, and, frankly, it’s a burden. Buying out that contract would provide Treliving with flexibility and enough room to re-sign Samsonov. However, it also means that the team will be paying for Murray past this season.
Alternatively, a trade is a possibility. But if a deal does happen, the team will have to add a spoon full of sugar to sweeten the deal. That means that a young player or a draft pick will have to get moved as well. But who? The sweetener might have to be substantial. There might also be a need for another team to carry the part of Murray’s contract on their books.
More coming.
Item Two: Easton Cowan Awed to Be a Maple Leafs
Easton Cowan is an 18-year-old from Mount Brydges, Ontario, and was the Maple Leafs’ round-one draft choice. After his first day at Maple Leafs development camp, he shared his excitement about joining the team he grew up watching, speaking about how much he loved the colour of the team’s blue jersey.
Related: Easton Cowan – 2023 NHL Draft Prospect Profile
Despite his youth, Cowan seemed to show maturity in his interactions with Toronto-based media. He described himself as a 200-foot player. He tended to share his Zach Hyman-like desire to hound pucks and how he expects to use his skating and hockey sense to create plays.
Cowan was a bit of a surprise choice by the team. However, that might be due to his slow start in his rookie season with the London Knights in the Ontario Hockey League (OHL). He only put up 23 points in the first 34 games, but he did finish the season by registering 30 points in the final 34 games. That impressive performance carried over into the Knights’ 20 playoff games, where he scored nine goals and added 12 assists (for 21 points).
Cowan’s postseason impact suggests that, even at a young age, he comes to play when it matters most – in the postseason. Surely, the Maple Leafs organization needs more of that.
Item Three: Reasons Why Nylander Might Choose to Leave
Rumor has it that Nylander and the Maple Leafs are struggling to find a happy meeting place for contract numbers. From what I have read, he believes he deserves a contract worth $10 million because that’s what he believes his level of production is. The Maple Leafs, on the other hand, are offering something like $8 million.
One problem the team has is that the two comparable contracts signed since the Nylander negotiations started suggest that $8 million is too low. Specifically, Pierre-Luc Dubois signed for $8.5 million annually for eight seasons with the Los Angeles Kings, while Timo Meier signed for $8.8 million yearly for eight seasons with the New Jersey Devils. As far as production goes, neither of these players has put up the numbers that Nylander has put up, and neither has come close to being a point-a-game player any season in his career.
Related: Maple Leafs Commentary: William Nylander, Skilled But Polarizing
The truth is that Nylander, based on his production, deserves more than these two players. In fact, if Nylander’s production improves, the $10 million per season he’s demanding should be considered fair compensation. That would be especially true if the salary cap increases.
Star players of Nylander’s ilk typically earn between 10 and 15 percent of the cap. Even if Nylander signed for $10 million, he’d be at about 9.5 percent of the salary cap if it reaches $95 million. He’d be far less (even now) if he were signed for $8 million. What to do now? The only quick resolution seems to be moving Nylander to another team. It might be that the gulf is too far for either the player or the team to jump.
The truth is that the Maple Leafs face challenges in meeting Nylander’s contract demands due to financial limitations and the need to allocate resources to other players. The organization will have to make tough decisions and cannot accommodate every player’s fair share of the salary cap. If Nylander wants to stay in Toronto, he might need to compromise on his contract demands, potentially accepting a shorter-term deal and a lower salary to ensure the team’s financial flexibility in the future.
What’s Next for the Maple Leafs?
It’s an odd situation the Maple Leafs find themselves in with contract extensions. But the most interesting comes up next season with Mitch Marner. By comparison, Nylander and Auston Matthews’ contracts will seem easy to work out.
Marner’s last contract negotiation was the loudest, the most public, and engaged in the most posturing. Given that he “won” such a huge contract with the team, can anyone imagine he softens up an iota? Not me.