There is plenty of noise around Leafs Nation these days. From talk about bench squabbles to the health and availability of Auston Matthews to questions related to the future of the “Core Four“, there are no shortage of hot-button topics surrounding the Toronto Maple Leafs at the moment.
However, one thing that is in short supply when it comes to the Maple Leafs is hope. No, Toronto is not officially eliminated from the postseason (at least not at press time). And while a 3-1 hole is quite daunting, it is not insurmountable. In fact, four such comebacks have occurred in just the past five years. Most notably, these very same Boston Bruins blew a 3-1 lead to the Florida Panthers in the first round of last year’s playoffs.
It goes without saying that the Maple Leafs still have an incredibly steep mountain to climb, starting tonight in Boston. But while so much of the hockey world is set to write Toronto’s 2023-24 obituary, let’s take a look at why they might not be done just yet.
Hopeful Historic Precedents
For as much as rallying from a 3-0 series deficit has become famously elusive (there have only been four such comebacks in NHL history), rebounding from being down 3-1 is becoming more and more commonplace. While the Panthers shocking the Bruins last spring en route to the Stanley Cup Final stands as the most obvious example, there are plenty of other recent instances to lean on.
One year prior, the Pittsburgh Penguins saw a 3-1 lead evaporate in their first round series against the New York Rangers. A year before that, it was the Maple Leafs’ turn to let a 3-1 advantage against the Montreal Canadiens slip away in a “bubble” summer series Toronto faithful are probably eager to forget. In 2019, the San Jose Sharks turned the trick on the Vegas Golden Knights.
Heck, you don’t even need to venture outside of the history of the Maple Leafs and the Bruins for notable comeback examples. In the 2013 and 2018 series between the clubs, Boston jumped out to 3-1 leads with the series shifting back to TD Garden, only to see Toronto force a Game 6 and Game 7. The fact that both Game 7s were ultimately ill-fated for the Maple Leafs (no one will forget being up 4-1 in the third period in 2013) doesn’t take away from the fact that they demonstrated resilience in rallying back.
Road Reset?
Home ice typically serves as a distinct advantage in the postseason, which is why there was so much positivity around the Maple Leafs after taking Game 2 and returning to Scotiabank Arena with the series deadlocked 1-1. Toronto’s performance in Games 3 and 4, coupled with announcer Joe Bowen’s criticisms of the “very disappointing” home fans, might force a re-think of that conventional wisdom, however. Is it possible that the team just needed to get back on the road to get themselves straightened out?
As has been pointed out ad nauseam in recent days, Toronto’s home ice problem in the playoffs isn’t specific to this postseason. Last year, the Maple Leafs went 1-5 at home, compared to 4-1 on the road. In 2019 against Boston, they managed to go 2-2 at TD Garden, but only 1-2 at Scotiabank Arena. While other years have produced better home playoff results, the Maple Leafs’ friendly confines have never been particularly intimidating to visiting teams.
If the past two off-days have offered a chance for players to clear their heads, work out any frustrations that boiled over on the bench in Game 4, and overall get re-focused, then being on the road for Game 5 and away from the noise back home could be just what the doctor ordered.
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Time Heals
As per the nature of the secrecy that surrounds health updates in the playoffs, there is little clarity over the many questions that have dogged Toronto this postseason. We don’t yet know if Matthews (illness) will be available or who might get the nod in net for Game 5 between Ilya Samsonov and Joseph Woll.
Still, one would think that the two-day break could only be beneficial for the Maple Leafs. Even if Matthews is still battling the effects of whatever mystery illness he might be fighting, extra time could prove useful for Game 4 returnee William Nylander, who is still getting his legs back. Likewise, it affords more time for any number of Leafs who are surely dealing with their own assortment of aches and pains that come with playoff hockey.
The Woll Factor
The return of Nylander to the lineup didn’t exactly provide a hoped for jolt to the offense in Game 4, but perhaps a change in net could offer the type of spark needed. Head coach Sheldon Keefe’s decision to pull starter Samsonov for Joseph Woll after two periods on Saturday came after Samsonov had allowed three goals on 16 shots. Although it didn’t result in a full-blown comeback, Toronto responded by scoring once and demonstrating at least a bit of late desperation as Woll stopped all five shots faced.
Woll, who went 12-11-1 with a 2.94 goals against average and .907 save percentage for the Maple Leafs this season, may not inspire a great deal of confidence from fans, but he would likely bring a welcome change from the postseason play of Samsonov to date (3.31 GAA, .883 SV%).
If Woll gets the start in Game 5 and can make some big saves early, it could serve as a rallying point for the players in front of him and inject new life into a team that is sorely in need of it.
Perhaps this is all just an exercise in grasping for straws (and failing to acknowledge the basic truth that Boston is more physical, better structured and just generally better). But at a time when so much of Leafs Nation has all but given up hope, wouldn’t it be an incredible story for the organization to finally break through and do the unexpected after being so universally counted out?