Entering the 2024 offseason, the Toronto Maple Leafs have four expiring restricted free agents (RFAs): Connor Dewar, Nicholas Robertson, Noah Gregor, and Timothy Liljegren. Simon Benoit, before signing a three-year, $1.35 million average annual value (AAV) contract at the end of March, would have qualified for this list as well. Being that he’s the only RFA defenceman without a contract extension, the Maple Leafs as a whole are going to struggle on the salary cap front, and Liljegren should be a staple on the blue line for a while, it’s imperative to think about what his next contract with Toronto will look like.
I can almost guarantee that he isn’t signed to a long-term extension, being that he’s still relatively unproven at 25 years old. RFA defencemen who don’t score a ton of points rarely receive extensions that aren’t for two or three years, with the most notable exception to this rule being Marcus Pettersson of the Pittsburgh Penguins, who signed a five-year deal worth just north of $4 million annually.
Comparable Contracts
When looking at comparable players, there are a few things to take note of for defencemen: point production, underlying metrics, size, handedness, and playstyle. In terms of points, right-handed Liljegren is coming off of a three-goal, 23-point campaign, albeit his 82-game pace of 34 points is a career-high. His underlying metrics were some of the strongest on the team — among Maple Leafs defencemen with at least 500 minutes played at 5v5, Liljegren ranked second behind only Mark Giordano in expected goals share (xGF%), at 53.09%. He was second in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) and in high-danger chance share (HDCF%), again behind Giordano, and fourth-best in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). His defence-first mindset doesn’t come too much at the expense of puck-moving ability, with him being arguably the best puck-moving defenceman on the roster behind Morgan Rielly. He’s not the biggest at 6-foot-1, 190 pounds, but he uses his size smartly in his own end.
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Matt Roy of the Los Angeles Kings is the most similar across the board to Liljegren. He’s right-handed, is around the same size, albeit a bit bigger, has a similar point ceiling (capped out at 26 points), and has enjoyed stellar underlying metrics for the past three years; his lowest xGF% in the past three seasons is an astounding 54.45%. He signed his most recent contract at age 26, and it came in at three years with an annual value of $3.15 million, taking up 3.87% of the cap at the time.
Dante Fabbro and Sean Walker are two other similar defencemen whose contracts can be used as baselines to gauge what to expect from Liljegren’s next deal. 25-year-old Fabbro, who has spent his career with the Nashville Predators, is practically the same size as Liljegren at 6-foot-0, 189 pounds. He’s sported similar production with a career-high of 24 points, has held an xGF% above 50% in three of his last four seasons, and has a defence-first mentality. The biggest difference in his game is that he plays solely at 5v5 and on the penalty kill, with barely any power play time to his name. Both of his last two contracts — one which he signed for 2024-25 — came in at one year with a value of $2.5 million (taking up 3.03% and 2.99% of the salary cap, respectively). Walker sizes up as the smallest of the defencemen on this list at 5-foot-11, 191 pounds, but has a similar production path and underlying statistic history as all the names here. He was rewarded for his efforts as an effective two-way defenceman with a four-year, $2.65 million AAV contract in 2020-21, which took up 3.25% of the cap at that time.
Liljegren Is an Integral Part of the Maple Leafs’ Blue Line
Moving forward, there are only two defencemen signed past 2024-25 for the Maple Leafs in Rielly and Benoit. Liljegren should join them on this list after this summer considering his success as a prospective top-four defenceman this season. His playoff performance was admittedly a little shaky against the Boston Bruins, which might end up working in Toronto’s favour in negotiations, but I would still anticipate him getting a hefty raise from his current $1.4 million AAV salary. Based solely on comparable contracts, I would say that Liljegren’s next contract comes in at three years with an annual cap hit between $2.95 and $3.2 million (3.36% and 3.64% of the 2024-25 salary cap, respectively), but considering the Maple Leafs’ lack of good right-handed defencemen, I could see an argument for him getting up to $3.6 million a year.
