As the 2024-2025 season approaches, one of the big questions for the Toronto Maple Leafs is what will happen to some of their top prospects. Will they step into significant roles on the NHL team, or will they be assigned to develop further with the Toronto Marlies in the American Hockey League (AHL)? The futures of these young talents remain uncertain, and their performance in training camp will likely determine where they end up for the season.
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The Athletics‘ Joshua Kloke gave his opinion on which prospects we might see play for the Maple Leafs in the upcoming season. (from “How the Maple Leafs’ top prospects might fit on the NHL roster next season,” Joshua Kloke, The Athletic, 07/06/2024). In this post, my often co-writer Stan Smith and I would like to weigh in with our own insights into the players that Kloke discussed.
Player 1: Easton Cowan
Any discussion about Maple Leafs prospects has to start with Easton Cowan, potentially the team’s most significant draft pick since Auston Matthews in 2016. Initially projected as a mid-second-round pick in the 2023 draft, the Maple Leafs surprised everyone by selecting him 28th overall in the first round.
Cowan had an outstanding season with the London Knights, leading them to the OHL championship by scoring 34 goals and adding 62 assists for 96 points in 54 games. He continued his stellar performance in the playoffs with 10 goals, 24 assists, and 34 points in 18 games. Cowan also led all players in the Memorial Cup with eight points in four games, including a crucial game-tying goal in the final against the Saginaw Spirit, though the Knights ultimately lost.
In Kloke’s article (cited above), Maple Leafs development coach Hayley Wickenheiser noted her high hopes for Cowan: “I put my money on his ability to make the Leafs this season. But we have a very good team with depth. The one thing I’ve learned about Easton is not to count him out of anything.”
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Given Cowan’s impressive season, he played more like a top-10 pick, and many top-10 picks make it straight to the NHL. Because Cowan is 19 and ineligible to play in the AHL, he will likely get the standard nine-game look in the NHL before deciding. We fully expect him to stay with the team beyond those nine games, possibly being released to participate in the World Juniors before becoming a full-time NHL player. While there is some criticism of his ability and NHL future, most people think the youngster is a keeper.
Player 2: Topi Niemela
Topi Niemela led the Marlies’ defense in scoring with eight goals and 31 assists for 39 points in 68 games this past season. While his offensive game was decent, it did not meet expectations. However, his defensive play improved over the season, with better positioning and more physicality despite appearing smaller than his listed 6-foot-0 and 180 pounds.
General Manager (GM) Brad Treliving prefers big-bodied, physical defensemen, and Niemela does not fit that mold. Niemela will unlikely play in the NHL beyond training camp unless the Maple Leafs face numerous injuries.
Player 3: Nikita Grebyonkin
Nikita Grebyonkin has the potential to become an NHL player. At 21, he is listed at about 6-foot-2 and about 195 pounds. He has played full-time in the KHL for the past two seasons, earning Rookie of the Year honors in 2023 with 19 goals and 67 points in 112 games. While he has experience against men, he lacks experience on smaller North American rinks. Unless he has an outstanding camp, he will likely spend time in the AHL to adjust.
Player 4: Dennis Hildeby
Dennis Hildeby had an excellent rookie season with the Marlies, finishing with a 21-11-7 record, a 2.41 Goals Against Average, and a 0.913 Save Percentage. He represented the Marlies in the AHL All-Star game and was called up to the Maple Leafs twice, although he did not see any ice time.
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Hildeby’s size at 6-foot-7 and 220 pounds is his biggest asset. He is very agile and plays a solid positional game. While he had a few bad games, they were rare. It is only a matter of time before he becomes an NHL goalie. This season, the cap-strapped Maple Leafs might use Hildeby as a third option in goal, allowing him to move between the AHL and NHL. Although he might not start the season on the roster, he is expected to see NHL action at some point.
Player 5: Fraser Minten
Drafted just 10 spots lower than Cowan, Fraser Minten’s stock has not risen as dramatically. After scoring 31 goals and 36 assists for 67 points in 57 games for the Kamloops Blazers, Minten was seen as a potential top-six forward. However, his 2023-24 season was less impressive, with 22 goals and 26 assists for 48 points in 43 games for the Blazers and the Saskatoon Blades. The Athletic now views the 6-foot-2 190-pound Minten as a bottom-six center.
With David Kampf and Pontus Holmberg occupying the third and fourth-line center roles for the Maple Leafs, it is doubtful Minten will make the team out of camp. Even if there were an open spot, the Maple Leafs’ brass would likely prefer to see him develop further in the AHL.
Player 6: Mikko Kokkonen
Mikko Kokkonen played extensively with the Marlies this past season. While not as offensively gifted as Niemela, he plays a better all-around game. However, he does not stand out enough to suggest he is ready for the NHL. While Kokkonen has no apparent weaknesses, he also lacks noticeable strengths. It will be interesting to see how he develops with an entire AHL season under his belt, but for now, he does not appear to be an option for the Maple Leafs.
The Bottom Line for the Maple Leafs Prospects
The bottom line is that while these prospects have potential, the likelihood of them cracking the Maple Leafs’ roster out of training camp is slim. This doesn’t diminish their quality or potential. Instead, it reflects the reality that they may need more development time before making an impact at the NHL level.
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Cowan might be the most likely to make the team, but that could be because he can’t play in the AHL this upcoming season. That said, we’ll see what transpires during training camp.
[Note: I want to thank long-time Maple Leafs fan Stan Smith for collaborating with me on this post. Stan’s Facebook profile can be found here.]
