In this post, I’m going to look at the seven top Toronto Maple Leafs right-wingers who have played for the team this season. To engage in these rankings, I’m relying on a system of analytics developed by The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn.
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Let me share just a note about how Luszczyszyn’s system works. It was developed in 2016 and has evolved to use what he calls a “Net Rating.” In this rating, existing data is crunched to create an “all-in-one player value stat” that’s based on each player’s Offensive and Defensive Rating. (from “NHL Player Cards: Atlantic Division, Dom Luszczyszyn and Shayna Goldman, The Athletic, 01/28/2024).
Interestingly, these cards show both how a player is performing this season and how he’s expected to finish the season. The information is pro-rated to 82 games, and then a forecast is created based on regression analysis over the past three seasons. These cards are updated daily after five NHL games have been played the night before.
Analytical Ratings for Maple Leafs Seven Right-Wingers
Here, you can see the analyzed data of each Maple Leafs’ right-winger based on his comprehensive metrics of both offensive and defensive contributions. Each player’s offensive and defensive ratings, on-ice performance, and contract value contribute to their overall Net Rating.
These analytics-based player values are then shaped into information that makes up each player’s “player card,” which shows “statistically how strong each player’s ratings are on and off the puck, a weighted combination of their production (goals, assists, expected goals, blocks, penalty differential) and their play-driving (on-ice expected and actual goal stats). It also shows each player’s market value based on their on-ice value.”
Top-Rated Maple Leafs Right-Winger: William Nylander
William Nylander emerges as the team’s top right winger. He brings exceptional offensive contributions and solid overall value to the team. With his impressive goal-scoring abilities and a high offensive rating percentile, Nylander consistently delivers on the ice. That makes him a crucial asset for the team’s success.
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Nylander Notes:
- Net Rating: +14 (Current), +13 (Forecast)
- Offensive Rating: +16 (Current), +15 (Forecast), 98th Percentile
- Defensive Rating: -2 (Current), -1 (Forecast), 42nd Percentile
- Individual Offensive Projection: 39 Goals, 67 Assists, 106 Points
- Contract: Market Value: $10.2 Million, Salary: $7.0 Million, Surplus Value: $3.2 Million
Second-Rated Maple Leafs Right-Winger: Mitch Marner
Mitch Marner delivers strong offensive capabilities and defensive stability. As such, he contributes significantly to the Maple Leafs’ success. Despite a slightly negative surplus value, Marner’s offensive prowess and overall impact on the team make him a valuable asset on the ice.
Marner Notes:
- Net Rating: +12 (Current), +13 (Forecast)
- Offensive Rating: +12 (Current), +13 (Forecast), 96th Percentile
- Defensive Rating: 0 (Current), +1 (Forecast), 71st Percentile
- Individual Offensive Projection: 36 Goals, 56 Assists, 92 Points
- Contract: Market Value: $10.1 Million, Salary: $10.9 Million, Surplus Value: -$0.8 Million
Third Rated Maple Leafs Right-Winger: Tyler Bertuzzi
Tyler Bertuzzi provides consistent offensive and defensive contributions as a right winger for the Maple Leafs. While not as prolific offensively as Nylander and Marner, Bertuzzi’s solid performance and underlying analytics make him a valuable member of the team.
Bertuzzi Notes:
- Net Rating: +3 (Current), +3 (Forecast)
- Offensive Rating: +2 (Current), +2 (Forecast), 59th Percentile
- Defensive Rating: +1 (Current), +1 (Forecast), 76th Percentile
- Individual Offensive Projection: 10 Goals, 24 Assists, 35 Points
- Contract: Market Value: $5.0 Million, Salary: $5.5 Million, Surplus Value: -$0.5 Million
Fourth Rated Maple Leafs Right-Winger
Calle Jarnkrok provides solid offensive contributions and brings value to the Maple Leafs with his defensive capabilities. While not as prominent as Nylander or Marner, Jarnkrok’s balanced play and positive surplus value make him a valuable asset on both ends of the ice.
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Jarnkrok Notes:
- Net Rating: -1 (Current), -1 (Forecast)
- Offensive Rating: +2 (Current), +1 (Forecast), 52nd Percentile
- Defensive Rating: -2 (Current), -2 (Forecast), 35th Percentile
- Individual Offensive Projection: 18 Goals, 16 Assists, 34 Points
- Contract: Market Value: $3.3 Million, Salary: $2.1 Million, Surplus Value: $1.2 Million
Fifth Rated Maple Leafs Right-Winger: Max Domi
Max Domi struggles with a negative net rating and lower offensive and defensive ratings compared to his teammates. Despite some offensive contributions, Domi’s negative surplus value and lower percentile rankings suggest areas for improvement in his overall performance for the Maple Leafs.
Domi Notes:
- Net Rating: -3 (Current), -3 (Forecast)
- Offensive Rating: 0 (Current), -1 (Forecast), 46th Percentile
- Defensive Rating: -3 (Current), -2 (Forecast), 26th Percentile
- Individual Offensive Projection: 7 Goals, 34 Assists, 41 Points
- Contract: Market Value: $2.4 Million, Salary: $3.0 Million, Surplus Value: -$0.6 Million
Sixth Rated Maple Leafs Right-Winger: Noah Gregor
The advanced analytics show that Noah Gregor struggles both offensively and defensively. He has a significant negative net rating and low percentile rankings. His offensive and defensive contributions are below average compared to his teammates, highlighting areas for improvement in his overall performance.
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Gregor Notes:
- Net Rating: -13 (Current), -11 (Forecast)
- Offensive Rating: -8 (Current), -8 (Forecast), 13th Percentile
- Defensive Rating: -5 (Current), -3 (Forecast), 13th Percentile
- Individual Offensive Projection: 9 Goals, 9 Assists, 17 Points
- Contract: Market Value: $0.8 Million, Salary: $0.8 Million, Surplus Value: $0.0 Million
Seventh Rated Maple Leafs Right-Winger: Ryan Reaves
Not surprisingly, Ryan Reaves also struggles with a negative net rating and low offensive and defensive ratings. These numbers indicate limited contributions on both ends of the ice. While he provides physicality and grit, Reaves’ offensive production and overall performance are below average compared to other players on the team.
Reaves Notes:
- Net Rating: -19 (Current), -14 (Forecast)
- Offensive Rating: -12 (Current), -10 (Forecast), 7th Percentile
- Defensive Rating: -8 (Current), -4 (Forecast), 11th Percentile
- Individual Offensive Projection: 7 Goals, 0 Assists, 7 Points
- Contract: Market Value: $0.8 Million, Salary: $1.4 Million, Surplus Value: -$0.6 Million
The Bottom Line in Comparing the Maple Leafs Right Wingers
Comparing the Maple Leafs’ right wingers based on their player cards (from The Athletic), we can provide rankings in terms of these players’ current and forecasted net ratings, offensive and defensive ratings, and other relevant metrics.
As noted, these rankings are based on the provided player cards and include considerations such as net ratings, offensive and defensive contributions, percentiles, and market value surplus. Interestingly, as The Hockey Writers readers have noted, sometimes these rankings do not jive with their reviews of the player. However, they do offer an extra window into how advanced analytics would view the player.
For me, they sometimes make me consider — regardless of whether these rankings are higher or lower than my own — what I might be missing when I watch Maple Leafs games.