About a week ago, I asked three questions for the Toronto Maple Leafs during the final stretch of the regular season. One was who will solidify their role as starter, especially come playoff time. With Joseph Woll returning from injury and Ilya Samsonov playing like he did the previous season; the hope was that it was going to be a battle for the spot on who will man the net when the playoffs start.
The decision has been much easier than expected as Samsonov continues to surge, while Woll continues to find his game since his return. While many expect a strong battle between the two down this final stretch, Samsonov has clearly separated himself from Woll and should make it an easy decision for head coach Sheldon Keefe.
After a less than average start to the 2023-24 season that forced him to be waived and work on his game, Samsonov has rebounded and has shown to be the starter that many expected him to be. He has been extremely dominant in the second half and he deserves the starter role after he continues to impress and show that he can again be a factor for the Maple Leafs during the postseason.
Samsonov’s Confidence an All-Time High
To start the season, Samsonov’s confidence was extremely low. He was dealing with poor outings, being over aggressive with his movements and letting in extremely weak goals. Since coming back he’s dialled in and his confidence is back to being at an all-time high. Even with having to deal with his early season struggles and trying to regain his strong mentality in net, he managed to be one of the fastest goaltenders to earn 100 career wins.
To accomplish that feat is extremely impressive for Samsonov and while that is great, his numbers over his last 20 starts shows that he’s on the right track with his game. Numbers like these are what made him a breakout performer last season and why he has pushed the Maple Leafs forward in the second half as well.
If you need more of a reason to believe that, among goalies to have 400 minutes at five-on-five, Samsonovs’ numbers when he returned are right at the top of the league. He’s 15th in save percentage (.925), eighth in goals against average (1.96), 13th in goals saved above average (4.76), and 14th in high danger SV% (.846). Much better results than what we’re seeing right now as he’s in the top-15 as opposed to being at the bottom of the standings.
With his game, you noticed how composed Samsonov is and when things do get hectic, he still manages to recover and make an unreal save. On the flip side of things, Woll hasn’t been as sharp since returning from his high ankle sprain. We knew that with the missed time, it was going to take a while for him to find his game, but he hasn’t been as sharp when the team has needed him. He has made some big time stops, but has allowed a goal on the first shot he has faced in three of his last four starts. There’s the good, but also some concerns in his game right now.
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Samsonov has consistently been playing at a high level since returning in January and that should warrant him getting the nod as the starter come playoff time. The past is in the past and he’s focussed on what he can do now to help this team succeed and it shows.
Samsonov Has Past Experience
While you can make the argument that both Samsonov and Woll both have playoff experience, Samsonov has a slightly better track record than Woll. Not to mention Samsonov was the reason why the Maple Leafs won their first playoff series since 2004.
In the first-round against the Tampa Bay Lightning, Samsonov was extremely confident and didn’t break when facing a barrage of shots. He managed to stand tall and make the saves when he needed to. In the last four games in that series, he faced 139 shots while going to overtime three times. That’s a lot of shots and a lot of pressure for a team where history hasn’t been kind to them and he stood tall. That experience alone, along with his new found confidence this season can definitely be a huge boost for him and the team this time around.
Samsonov has been given an opportunity to try and run away with the starter role and he has done just that. Even when the team in front of him hasn’t played their best, he was on top of his game which is a great sign. Lately, he has had some strong outings and made highlight reel saves against the Florida Panthers and Buffalo Sabres. If you missed out, here’s one of those saves where he went into full desperation mode.
With one playoff round victory under his belt, Samsonov is definitely going to be relied upon to once again lead the charge into the postseason. Considering how things started, he has to feel good about himself now that his game is where the team wants it to be. There shouldn’t be any doubt that with what he’s been able to accomplish– in the past and recently– he should be the starter for Game 1.
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Samsonov’s resurgence in his play couldn’t have come at a better time. With the playoffs around the corner, he appears sharp, focused and ready for battle. He shined against tough competition, including a game against a potential opponent, the Panthers. While he was injured mid-way through their second-round series, he should feel motivated more than ever as he has shined with his play.
Statistics from Natural Stat Trick and Hockey Reference.