With 27 games played, close to one-third of an 82-game schedule, I thought I would dive into Toronto Maple Leafs’ statistics to review their production. I’ll also try to do a prognosis of where players might be at the end of the season if they continue producing at their current pace.
As fans study where the Maple Leafs stand at this point of the season, what would the statistics tell them?
Scoring Review One: A Deeper Dive into the Core Four’s Production
There are a few insights from comparing the performances of the Maple Leafs’ Core Four players, William Nylander, Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and John Tavares this season.
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William Nylander (Right-Winger)
Nylander’s franchise record-breaking season start has him solidly in a high-scoring production ranking at the 27-game mark. He’s been a consistent offensive force for the Maple Leafs and leads the team in points with 38 (14 goals, 24 assists). He has also been a key contributor on the power play. Nylander has five power-play goals and eight power-play assists. Also, his well-rounded game includes effective two-way play, and he has registered a positive plus-4 rating.
Auston Matthews (Center)
Matthews continues to be a goal-scoring machine. He leads the team and the NHL with 23 goals. He has also put up 12 assists (for 35 points) to rank second on the team.
Thus far, Matthews’ shot has been lethal, and he’s maintaining an outstanding shooting percentage of 19.2%. Although he has fewer assists than Nylander, his goal-scoring prowess significantly impacts the team’s offensive output.
Mitchell Marner (Right-Winger):
Marner had a slow start to the season but has come on recently. He’s a playmaking wizard and has contributed significantly to the team’s success with 20 assists, which is tied for first with Tavares among the team’s Core Four. His offensive versatility is evident. He’s also scored 12 goals, which has helped him show a more balanced scoring approach. He’s third on the team in point production with 32 points.
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Two things make Marner crucial to the team’s success. First, he is strong on special teams – both with the man advantage and on the penalty kill. Interestingly, he has put up three power-play goals and two shorthanded assists. Second, Marner has a difficult assignment – Maple Leafs head coach Sheldon Keefe usually plays Marner’s line against the opposition’s best.
John Tavares (Center)
Tavares’ season has been amazing because he hit the amazing 1000-point mark. However, he’s still providing valuable leadership and offensive production with 28 points (8 goals, 20 assists) to rank fourth on the team.
Interestingly, Tavares’ goal-scoring is down this season. His eight goals would put him on a pace for 24 on the season. Except for the two COVID seasons with fewer games played, Tavares’ lowest total with the Maple Leafs was 27 goals.
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He is still a point-a-game player; however, is the way he’s stacking up his points changing as he ages? One thing that cannot be forgotten about Tavares is that he excels in the faceoff circle. This season, he’s maintained an impressive faceoff win percentage of 61.7%.
Comparative Analysis of the Maple Leafs’ Core Four
Looking at key production numbers for the team’s Core Four, the following insights rise to the surface. Matthews is the primary goal scorer. There’s a chance he could come close to 70 goals if he continues his current pace. Marner excels in playmaking and on special teams. Nylander has shown balance with strong production numbers. He’s on his way to a career season. Finally, Tavares continues to contribute as a well-rounded offensive leader. However, his goal-scoring is down a bit. Can he pick that up during the season?
Forecast Based on Current Pace:
Interestingly, if all these players continue to put up points, Nylander would be on pace for around 114 points. Matthews would be on pace for approximately 105 points. Marner would be on pace for about 94 points. Finally, Tavares would be on pace for around 84 points.
Statistical Surprise: Nick Robertson Is Scoring at a Better Rate than Tyler Bertuzzi
One surprise came up for me regarding the team’s point production. I compared Tyler Bertuzzi vs. Nick Robertson in terms of their point totals. This season, Bertuzzi and Robertson are within a single point of each other.
More interestingly, Bertuzzi has played 27 games and averaged 16.05 TOI (time on the ice), scoring five goals and four assists. On the plus side, he boasts a plus-8 rating with 14 penalty minutes. He’s also had time on the team’s power play and has scored two goals.
On the other hand, the younger (and much cheaper) Robertson has played in 16 games, scoring three goals and five assists. His plus/minus rating stands at plus-2, and he has not yet taken a penalty. One big difference between the two players’ is their TOI. Robertson averages 10:41 per game. He’s also scored one short-handed goal.
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Bertuzzi has a higher shot volume (59 shots on goal with 27 for Robertson). However, Robertson holds a higher shooting percentage (11.1% compared with 8.5% for Bertuzzi).
The Bottom Line for the Maple Leafs in Terms of Point Production
The statistics I’ve provided offer a snapshot of how the Core Four have been playing this season. As can be expected, they rank first through fourth in the Maple Leafs’ point production. Nylander will most likely have a career season.
However, the surprise was Bertuzzi and Robertson. Bertuzzi has had ample opportunity to put up bigger numbers with the team; yet, he hasn’t. Robertson, on the other hand, has had fewer opportunities to score, and his production is relatively higher.