When the Toronto Maple Leafs signed John Tavares on July 1, 2018, to a $77 million, seven-year contract, many people predicted that the back of those years would be problematic. Now, we might be in that period of discussion. Tavares has been a prolific scorer at every level, but his nine-game scoring drought feels pronounced. Tavares had 25 points through his first 25 games of the season, making him a point-per-game player.
Since then, Tavares has had 10 points in 22 games, most notably an eight-game pointless streak. Some quick analysis points to that being worse. However, the nine points in 12 games thing wouldn’t be setting off any alarms on its own, and now it seems that a season that started with touting Tavares as a player who might never drop off is being treated like he’s beginning to drop off finally. Let’s look into Tavare’s recent struggles, how his play has affected the team and his way of getting out of this slump.
Evaluating The Drought
Tavares’s eight-game pointless streak started on Jan. 9, 2024, against the San Jose Sharks and went up to Jan. 24, 2024, against the Winnipeg Jets. During the eight games, the team went 4-4-1, scoring 29 goals while giving up 28 goals. Many of these games could have used the help of Tavares, especially games against the Vancouver Canucks on Jan. 20 or against the Colorado Avalanche on Jan. 13, where both games saw a total of over eight goals combined when the game was over. Tavares’ play has also seen better days when evaluating his stats during the eight-game drought.
With eight games played, Tavares, over that span of games, finished with zero points, a combined minus-6, two penalty minutes, 30 shots, with a 0.0 percent shooting percentage, while having played a total of 162:01 time on ice and 177 shifts during the span. Despite all the struggles personally, Tavares is a leader at heart, and his teammates know that and are helping him in any way he can.
A lot of its BS…He hasn’t slowed down one bit. We all know that in here. I’ve gone through that, too. A lot of people try to convince you of that. But just stick to your guns and stick to what’s gotten you in the league and kept you in the league this long.
Maple Leafs defenseman Mark Giordano said of Tavares via Sportsnet’s Luke Fox, prior to Wednesday’s game against the Winnipeg Jets.
It’s important to note that Tavares’ impressive point streak has been the center of attention this season. However, the team’s performance during this streak has impacted both wins and losses. Although the streak ended when Tavares scored on the power play against the Sharks on Jan. 27, some numbers are worth considering when evaluating Tavares’ overall performance this season. These numbers could potentially impact him and the team coming out of the All-Star break.
Tavares’ Play On The Season
Regarding point production, this season, Tavares is now on pace for his lowest points per game as a Leaf. It will also likely be his lowest goal per game as a Leaf. It’s essential to remember that he has an $11 million salary cap hit. While most teams would be happy to have a second-line center who scored 62 points, his overall performance may improve now that his pointless streak has ended. Nevertheless, the weight of his salary is significant, and even though 60+ points in year six of his contract seemed reasonable at the time it was signed, it’s still a hefty sum. His impact on the game extends beyond his production and cap space. Although he faces few obstacles, his shooting percentage of 7.1% is far below his career average of 12.8%.
Related: Looking Back at John Tavares’ Journey to 1000 Career NHL Points
There may be some concerns regarding Tavares’ production this season. Out of his 22 assists, 12 of them are secondary assists. This is a significant increase compared to last season, where he had a ratio of 27 first assists to 17 secondary assists. The only other season where he had more secondary assists than first assists was in the 2021-22 season, where he had 21 first assists to 28 secondary assists. He is tied for 16th in the league for tip-in goals, and he always seeks efficient opportunities, even though he may not generate chances as dynamically as usual.
How The Power-Play Could Help Tavares More
Tavares’ 5v5 production has not been affected as much as his power play numbers. Throughout his career, he has earned 33.7% of his points on the man advantage, but last season, that percentage increased to 48.4%. Only 29.4% of his points have come from the power play this year. In the previous season, Tavares scored 39 points on the power play, but he has only scored 10 this year. There should be some decline in his numbers, given that last year was his career-high. This may be due, in part, to Guy Boucher taking over the power play from Spencer Carbery.
Toronto is currently seeking ways to engage Tavares in the power play. The man advantage closely depends on the possibility of Auston Matthews’ powerful shot, while William Nylander has developed into a more eager shooter. Conversely, Tavares is positioned at the front of the net, seeking to deflect the puck and operate as a back-to-the-net forward. At the very least, he occupies the attention of a defenseman while Toronto looks for the best scoring opportunities.
With the Leafs sitting at 25-14-8 going into the All-Star break, it’s different from the record they or the fans would have liked. Even with Tavare’s finally breaking the eight-game pointless streak, it’s up to him and the team to come out strong from the break, and having Tavares produce like his usual self in the second half of the season is going to be a significant factor with the Leafs going into the Trade Deadline and into the playoffs.