When the Toronto Maple Leafs hired Brad Treliving to be the general manager, he inherited a long list of things to do. Namely to address the contract situations involving franchise centreman Auston Matthews and the skilled winger in William Nylander.
With Matthews signing his NHL-record contract recently, that crossed off Treliving’s top priority as the GM. Now, the shift focuses to Nylander and the outcome that could follow. It wasn’t a matter of if, but when Matthews was going to sign his contract. With Nylander– who is in the final year of his current contract– it’s now a different situation as the two sides continue to try and work things out.
In a recent interview with Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman and Jeff Marek, Nylander stated that there isn’t any rush to sign a deal, but he does insist that it’ll take a lot for him to leave Toronto. While Nylander shows his commitment to stay and try to win, his reported asking price of $10 million might seem a bit much. However, the hope remains that both sides will be able to work things out. While he deserves a pay increase and both sides continue to talk things over, it would be better for a deal to get done sooner rather than later.
Nylander Has Been Clutch
There isn’t any doubt that Nylander remains a very important and critical piece to the core. Especially when you look at his production the last two seasons, as he managed to breakout for back-to-back 80-point seasons as well as a 40-goal season in 2022-23.
For many doubting Nylander’s ability to be a super star level forward, his production has shown that he is definitely capable of doing so. Over the last two seasons, he ranks 21st in points with 167 and 19th in goals with 74. His points at even strength also have him within the top-25 in the league with 108. Even when looking at his underlying numbers he’s among some of the best in the offensive categories. At five-on-five with a minimum of 1,000 minutes played among forwards last season, he is 19th in goals for percentage with 59.81 and 29th in scoring chances for percentage with 56.08. To be within the top-30 in a number of offensive categories, it’s evident that the offense drives through him.
While his numbers are strong, the main reason that makes Nylander an integral part for this group is the clutch factor during the postseason. He has 40 points in 50 playoff games in his career, but it was the 2020-21 postseason in the bubble where he started to take off. He led the way with eight points in seven games, where both Matthews and Mitch Marner really weren’t quite themselves.
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A more recent example would be the series against the Florida Panthers where once again Matthews and Marner were seemingly quiet and Nylander took over as the best player for the Maple Leafs in that series. He scored the first goal of Game 4 when the team needed a boost and when the game was on the line, he scored a great bad angle goal to tie the game at two in Game 5.
While the Maple Leafs ended up losing the series, Nylander became more of a factor when they needed a jolt of offense. When Matthews and Marner had a hard time getting going, Nylander was there to carry the load and be a clutch performer when called upon. Say what you want about his inability to show some toughness in the corners or backing away from certain situations, but when he needs to step up, he answers the call.
Treliving Can’t Let History Repeat
Although this is an entirely different situation when Nylander signed his current deal, holding out when his entry-level contract ended, you would have to think that Treliving can’t let this negotiation get to a boiling point where things take a bad turn. Nylander is a vital piece to this team’s success going forward and losing him would be a major blow.
It’s tough to find a point producing winger that can control the game like Nylander can. It’s obvious that Treliving knows what’s at stake here as he’s been in this spot before when trying to lock down star players. He’s negotiating with the same agent that represents Johnny Gaudreau as a client and while Gaudreau didn’t sign with the Calgary Flames because of a family decision to leave, this is once again a different situation.
If the two sides can’t come to an agreement, then the worst-case scenario is definitely in the cards. The Maple Leafs could end up trading Nylander for pieces that can still help this roster in different areas and spread the money around. Or, they can still keep him as an “own-rental” for the playoffs and risk losing him in the offseason. It’ll be risky to move him at or before the deadline unless you know what assets you’re getting in return as he would be the most sought-after commodity on the market.
As Nylander said, there’s still time to get a deal done and it’s true. But if history does repeat itself for both player and general manager, it will be a decision that will come with a lot of criticism and backlash. If they can’t come to a deal, instead of missing out for a season, Nylander could be gone for good playing for a different team.
Nylander Deserves Pay Increase
Nylander has clearly expressed his desire to stay, but the dollar value is what’s keeping both sides apart. After two strong seasons where he managed to set career bests and considering how Matthews got a major pay raise, Nylander probably isn’t going to budge from his current price.
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Nylander has already taken less in the past when Matthews and Marner got their value. Nylander is definitely doing what he should do and get his worth. It’s unlikely he’d take less again this time around. As he said there’s no rush, he could be playing the waiting game and maybe banking on this season for even more of a salary increase. If he can replicate or improve on what he did in 2022-23, then Nylander will demand a high value.
There’s also the increase to the salary cap that could be a factor as well. If the salary cap increases by $4 million for the 2024-25 season, then that’ll work in Nylander’s favour. With assistant general manager Brandon Pridham working the cap, he can structure a deal that will increase over time along with the cap, benefiting both player and team.
Nylander has stated on multiple occasions that his desire is to be a Maple Leaf. There’s no rush to get a deal, as there’s still plenty of time, but it’ll be best to try and get something done sooner rather than later where the speculation will continue to mount. He has earned the chance for a decent increase as he’s been a key contributor, but there’s still some things that need to fall into place.
The hope remains that he stays in the fold for a long time.
Statistics from Natural Stat Trick, NHL and Hockey Reference.
