Assuming the forward is game to move on, if the Toronto Maple Leafs can trade Mitch Marner, there will be four likely scenarios that GM Brad Treliving will have to consider. A deal that the Leafs will likely lose based on the assets that come back, the timing of the trade and the dominos that fall afterward become critically important. When this deal happens might determine what Toronto’s season looks like, what the return is in any trade, and how the Leafs can move forward this summer.
Here are the four big options should a trade be a real possibility.
An Offseason Hockey Trade
The Maple Leafs want to be contenders. As such, any deal to move Marner out will mean the Leafs want a replacement or replacements to take his spot. This could be at the same position or in other areas, but Toronto doesn’t want to move Marner without a plan for the roster.
A hockey trade is one where two teams either believe their respective players need a fresh start, the piece coming in is more integral to the puzzle than the piece going out, or one deal leads to another, which, in the long run, is best for the organization. Hockey deals are rare these days, but they do happen. The most recent ones were when the Colorado Avalanche acquired forward Casey Mittelstadt from the Buffalo Sabres for defenseman Bowen Byram and when the Anaheim Ducks acquired forward Cutter Gauthier from the Philadelphia Flyers for defenseman Jamie Drysdale and a 2nd-round Draft pick in 2025. Can Toronto pull off something similar?
Related: Analyzing a Proposed Monster Leafs and Flames Trade for Marner
Is there a team out there that sees Marner as a piece they would be willing to trade NHL-caliber player(s) for? A suggested trade was Rasmus Andersson and Jacob Markstrom for Marner and other pieces. You can see why I suggested it was a long shot at best by clicking on the link below.
A One-Year Rental Trade
Another option would be the Leafs moving Marner in the offseason to a team that wants to contend and wants a full season out of Marner to push toward the playoffs. This would be a team like the Buffalo Sabres, Detroit Red Wings, Philadelphia Flyers, or Ottawa Senators (among others). All were expected or close to being contenders, but all fell short. These are also teams that would likely have or make cap room to squeeze in Marner’s $10.9 million salary.
The bonus for Toronto is that they might not have to retain salary (or at least not much). The bonus for the team acquiring Marner is that they can plan their summer around adding his contract and use the entire season to try and convince him to re-sign. Toronto doesn’t win this trade because they don’t get players back that will be as good as Marner, but they could get useful depth players or fill positional needs as the team acquiring team dumps decent contracts to make the deal work.
A Trade Deadline Deal
A third option is that the Maple Leafs wait. They can try and reshape their roster in the summer, talk to Marner about a contract extension, and if things don’t change, trade him at the deadline. There will be teams interested in Marner as a prorated rental and some will be willing to pay a hefty price, even if Marner intends to test the free agent market next offseason.
Again, the Leafs lose this deal based on the NHL-ready assets coming back, but they could get picks and the team could also go shopping for a rental or two of their own if Marner is moved. This is the kind of trade where Treliving would need to act fast and have a plan. It would be a risk, but it would avoid potentially losing Marner as an unrestricted free agent.
A Salary Cap Dump Trade
Finally, if the Leafs can’t find a hockey trade or a rental deal, they could try and dump Marner for picks and prospects, then take the money saved on the cap and hit the free agency market this summer. That will sting and fans will criticize the Leafs for getting little in return, but the trade won’t and shouldn’t be judged until Treliving finishes the series of transactions that stem from the original Marner deal.
This kind of trade would require Toronto to take as little salary back as possible and then use the $10.9 million to find other players to play in goal and on the blue line. Pro scouting becomes critically important.
These trades are listed in order of their perceived difficulty. A hockey trade might be ideal, but it could be the hardest trade to pull off. A salary cap dump trade would be the easiest, but it would require Marner to be open to joining a team that has a ton of cap space. Those teams typically aren’t contenders.