The big hype surrounding the Toronto Maple Leafs is Auston Matthews‘ new deal. While many fans are just happy to have him sticking around for four more years, becoming the highest-paid player and not maxing out his term is concerning. Other elites in their primes, like Nathan MacKinnon and David Pastrnak, signed long-term and for less money. So, the relation to the Edmonton Oilers is if Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl will also have the same mindset and hurt the team they are trying to win with to take more money.
The focus here is on Draisaitl more than McDavid, as his contract ends in two years and he can re-sign next offseason. Agents look around the league and compare the numbers of their clients on the ice, then look at the best comparison that supports their argument for more money. While some players let their agent do most of the heavy lifting, some players have a big say and don’t push the team to the max amount of dollars. As Matthews could have, says Maple Leafs general manager Brad Treliving, so can Draisaitl with what he has done with the Oilers in his career so far.
What also comes back around is the dollar amount when a player says they want to win in the city where they re-signed. Obviously, they deserve a certain amount of money for their services, but some get out of hand and overvalue themselves. In the case of the elite players, they should be over $10 million AAV. But at a certain point, $1 million or so can really make a difference. Take the Maple Leafs this season, who are over the cap, or the Oilers, who can only have a 21-man roster if they roster a 12th forward under a certain cap hit. At the end of the day, players who want to win care about winning and less about a bit of extra money on a $100 million contract.
Maple Leafs’ Stars Haven’t Learned From the Bruins
The closest example that the Maple Leafs’ top players should have been looking at is the Boston Bruins. Their top players took huge pay cuts, and they continued to win playoff rounds, stay at the top of the standings, and even win a Stanley Cup. While Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, and Pastrnak were taking around $6 million AAV long-term, the young Maple Leafs were watching them beat them in the first round and still see no problem in taking double that money on their contracts. The more the elite players are paid, the less there is to spread out to acquire capable depth.
With little money to hand out to depth players, a team has to really count on gems in the rough. Those aren’t very common and quickly go away. Michael Bunting is a perfect example. The Maple Leafs got two years of him, and now he’s getting paid elsewhere.
Oilers’ Stars Have Learned Their Lesson
The Oilers have gone further and had more playoff success than the Maple Leafs, so the top players have had more of a taste for the Stanley Cup. The Oilers have won four playoff series and made the Conference Final once while McDavid and Draisaitl have been on the team. The Maple Leafs have won one series with the Core Four…and they made the playoffs in each of the past seven seasons. The Oilers missed two postseasons in a row after making the second round in 2017.
The Oilers know they have the team to win the Stanley Cup because of the capabilities of McDavid and Draisaitl in the playoffs. They are two of the best all-time playoff scorers already when it comes to points per game. The West continues to be more open, and they have a clear window to win in the next two seasons. If they want that window to remain wide open for longer, the contracts, starting with Draisaitl’s, can’t handcuff the Oilers. If Draisaitl wants to re-sign, he can seemingly ask for any number, and the second-best scorer in the league over the past five seasons will get it.
MacKinnon, after winning a Stanley Cup, only took $12.6 million AAV. Even though he’s a competitor and wants more, he was vastly underpaid and got less than he deserved. Post-Stanley Cup contracts from the winning team always break up the group as players want a lot more money. In the case of the Oilers, they haven’t won anything yet, and they know it.
Draisaitl is also greatly underpaid, so taking a $12.5-13 million AAV contract for eight years is expected. The difference I believe there will be is he will want to max out his contract and stay alongside McDavid and the Oilers as long as he can. He has had incredible personal success there, has some great friends, and it is a strong, historic organization where the current players have really built something.
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It has been made clear that the focus is on winning in Edmonton, so if that isn’t accomplished in the next two seasons, I don’t think there is as big of a worry about Draisaitl not re-signing as some might think. While Matthews knows that the cap will have risen by the time his contract is up and he can maximize his earnings, Draisaitl will have already seen the cap rise in 1-2 seasons when he starts contract negotiations.
Even with the cap rising, eight years at $13.25 million AAV is better than four years. The Oilers have the second half of the contract that then looks like a big underpayment, as his current contract does. That is when it is easiest to win Cups, when there’s money to go around to fortify the lineup.
The Oilers are definitely in a better spot than the Maple Leafs, and there is less to worry about regarding the contracts. How well the Oilers do will surely help in the decision for Draisaitl, but he would be hard-pressed to find another team this close to winning or just be selfishly thinking about money over winning.