With no playoffs in sight, the Montreal Canadiens’ season is almost over. But since October, they have taken steps in the right direction on both a team level and with the individual development of top players. They already surpassed last season’s total of 68 points, plus star players Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Mike Matheson, and 2022 first-overall draft pick Juraj Slafkovsky have all had career years. Now that the season is ending, Canadiens general manager (GM) Kent Hughes needs to determine where the Habs are in the rebuild and his offseason game plan to take the next step.
Canadiens Need to Sign Key Prospects
Hughes has already started signing critical prospects from the NCAA and overseas. With Boston University (BU) finishing early at the Frozen Four, Hughes was able to sign star defensive prospect Lane Hutson to a three-year entry-level contract (ELC) and 2020 NHL draft second-round pick Luke Tuch to a two-year ELC.
Since Caufield, Hutson is probably one of the most anticipated prospects to play in Montreal. The 5-foot-10 defenceman is often compared to star young defenders Adam Fox of the New York Rangers and Cale Makar of the Colorado Avalanche. If he can play to their level in the NHL, he will be an instant star.
Tuch’s signing was a bit more complex. The Canadiens originally wanted to sign him last season, but Tuch refused and spent another year at BU. Montreal wanted him to sign an amateur tryout (ATO) contract with the Laval Rocket of the American Hockey League (AHL) this season. Tuch, however, wanted his ELC right away so he could reach free agency earlier.
The Canadiens also have several restricted free agents (RFA) that will need contracts this offseason, most notably Arber Xhekaj, Jesse Ylonen and Justin Barron. Xhekaj is the most critical signing and will probably get a contract quickly. His rough style of play, along with his excellent skating and puck-moving abilities, give him an advantage over the other two.
Barron and Ylonen are in a predicament, as neither player has played well enough to convince management they are a must-sign. Both have tremendous skill but are unable to put it together at the NHL level, and both have taken a step back in terms of production this season. Barron could get the benefit of the doubt because he is a defenceman, and they usually need more time to develop. Ylonen, however, might have played his last games in Montreal. Hughes will need to determine who he wants going forward, and Montreal will have $18.7 million in cap space next season, including long-term injury reserve (LTIR) money when they put Carey Price on LTIR.
Canadiens Should Make Some Trades
Hughes will have to decide sooner than later on who he wants for Montreal’s defence in the future, especially on the left side. At the NHL level, they are already crowded with Matheson, Xhekaj, Jayden Struble, Kaiden Guhle, Jordan Harris and now Hutson. All but Struble have top-four potential, and Matheson and Guhle have established themselves as top-pairing defensemen.
With the emergence of Hutson and the potential of him becoming a regular NHLer as soon as next season, something has to give. Hutson has only played one game but looked very good and was not out of place, logging over 20 minutes and registering an assist. The Canadiens also have an entire right side with David Savard, Jonathan Kovacevic, Logan Mailloux and Barron. Granted, the right side is manageable, with Savard and Kovacevic in the last years of their contracts and Mailloux and Barron not yet being full-time NHLers.
With six potential starters on the left side and two players who will be unrestricted free agents (UFA) at the end of the season, Hughes needs to make room before September to give his players the ice time needed. It won’t be an easy decision for the GM because he has to figure out who he wants for the future and whether or not the players are ready for the next level. Savard and Kovacevic will be traded by the 2025 trade deadline regardless, but it could be better to move at least one of them in the offseason.
For the left side, it’s even more challenging. Matheson has been the best offensive defenceman since PK Subban, but he also gets in the way of Hutson, who can potentially be the top offensive defenceman for Montreal. The team has a chance to move Matheson while his value is sky-high, coming off the best season of his career on an offensively challenged team.
Related: Canadiens’ Lane Hutson Earns First Point in NHL Debut
Hughes can also move out some younger players like Harris, Struble or Barron. If they feel Hutson is not ready to take the spot of Matheson, then Hughes could move one of the younger players in hopes of getting the most value in return. Struble is an easy target to move because Xhekaj is the same type of defenseman with more offensive upside. Barron is an RFA and hasn’t been able to establish himself as a full-time NHL player. He could be moved to ensure there is room for David Reinbacher and Mailloux. Whatever the case, Hughes needs to move some defencemen in the offseason, which could help him improve his offence depending on the return.
Not only should Hughes make a trade to create room on the blue line, but he also needs offence. With the abundance of defensive players, he can use those plus his four first-round and 24 overall draft picks over the next two seasons to get a young offensive star. This could greatly improve the team and kill several birds with one stone.
Canadiens Need Offensive Stud at Draft
The 2024 NHL draft will be Hughes’ third draft as GM of the Canadiens. His first draft, in 2022 in Montreal, could be one of the best drafts by the team in decades. In that draft, he was able to select Slafkovsky, Hutson, Filip Mesar, Owen Beck and Adam Engstrom, who all look to be destined for successful NHL careers. Last season’s draft could be a good one, but it may not be in a forward-rich draft. The Habs went against the norm and drafted Reinbacher fifth overall, with Matvei Michkov and Ryan Leonard still on the board. They also went goaltender-heavy, using three of their nine picks to draft Jacob Fowler, Quentin Miller and Yevgeni Volokhin. Fowler dominated the NCAA this season, and Volokhin did the same in the Russian Junior League (MHL).
This year’s draft is defence-heavy in the first round, so if you expect the unexpected, you can safely say Hughes will draft a forward. Not because he wants to go against the norm but because he has no other option. The team is starved offensively, and they have too many potential top defencemen and goaltenders. The Canadiens will draft fifth or sixth, and a high-quality forward will be available. Hughes knows he needs an offensive star, and he knows the draft is a perfect place to get one.
Macklin Celebrini should go first, but after he is drafted, there is a big chance three and maybe four defensemen get drafted before Montreal picks. If that is the case, then one of Ivan Demidov, Cayden Lindstrom, Berkly Catton, Cole Eiserman or Tij Iginla will be available, and any one of those forwards is just what the Habs need.
Whatever the Canadiens do this offseason — they are going to be busy — they are on the cusp of taking the next step and pushing for the playoffs. To take that next step, they have to fill the one or two holes they have in their lineup, and that’s another offensively talented top-six player and some skilled depth. If they can accomplish that this offseason, the playoffs will be a reality, and with a little more experience for the young players, the drive for 25 could start sooner than anyone thinks.