Noah Dobson had exactly the type of season the New York Islanders were hoping to see him have. He broke out offensively, improved his defense, and emerged as one of the league’s best young defensemen. He played big minutes with Ryan Pulock and Scott Mayfield’s injuries and helped in getting the powerplay to league average. He may be young, but he was one of the team’s best players, and it is time to give him recognition.
Offense
There is no way to talk about Dobson without discussing his offensive talents. He is a great skater, shooter, passer, and quarterback with the puck. He may have struggled to finish the regular season, having just six points in his final 17 games, but his season still brought an impressive offensive breakout. After scoring 13 goals and 49 points in 78 games in the 2022-23 season, he finished this season with 10 goals and 70 points in 78 games. This is all the more impressive given his poor finish to the season. He maintained over a point-per-game for nearly the entire season, all while being relied on defensively and on the penalty kill.
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The first element of Dobson’s offensive game to analyze is his development with the puck. His puck possession has taken serious strides in recent seasons, and he looked more confident, controlled, and poised with the puck. He consistently made improved reads on his passes, especially in the defensive zone. It is hard to tell the difference between this season and last on paper because of his increased ice time and the harder competition he matched up with, but watching him play, the difference is clear.
Another bright spot from this season was the improved powerplay, largely because of Dobson’s improved play with the puck. The first powerplay unit has been quarterbacked by Mat Barzal in recent seasons, but Dobson took some of the responsibility this season. He took fewer shots this season, scoring just one powerplay goal to last season’s five, but he played a crucial role in enabling Bo Horvat to score 10 goals. Additionally, Barzal, Brock Nelson, and Kyle Palmieri all showed improvement from last season, contributing to a nearly five percent increase in powerplay success rate. It is hard to analyze a team’s powerplay and attribute it to any one factor, but there is no doubt Dobson played a massive role in the unit’s improvement.
Defense
As a defenseman, defense should be the focus in analyzing a player’s performance. Entering the season, Dobson had struggled defensively, making costly turnovers that led to the Islanders’ losses. While these turnovers would be a mix of poor luck and a lack of experience, it seems as if Dobson has learned from these mistakes, as his defensive game has seriously improved.
Since Dobson played 24:30 a game, he experienced a lot of fatigue, especially late in the season. This could be a factor in his offensive decline late in the season, but also for some of his defensive mishaps. While he has improved, he is still growing in possessing the puck in the defensive zone. He still makes poor reads and often panics with the puck. The reality is he is still young and improving, and he spent the majority of his season alongside 24-year-old Alexander Romanov, with them both playing big minutes, so these mistakes are expected.
In analyzing next season, Dobson should improve a lot, especially defensively. He spent over 100 minutes on a pairing alongside Romanov, Sebastian Aho, and Adam Pelech, so finding stability in his defense partner will go a long way. As well, he underwent a coaching change midseason, so finding a groove in a system will benefit the entire roster. Most importantly, he will no longer have to play on the penalty kill.
With Mayfield and Pulock’s long-term injuries sustained midseason, Dobson was thrown on the penalty kill and did a respectable job. He played over 84 minutes and had just two penalty-killing giveaways the entire season. With a healthy defense next season, Dobson will be able to get some much-needed rest when the Islanders go on the penalty kill.
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Final Grade: A
With Dobson’s disappointing offensive finish to the season, it is easy to overlook his play in assessing the overall season. Given the circumstances he was thrown into, and the way he handled himself each shift, he is deserving of an A. Before the final month of the season, he was top-five in Norris Trophy odds on most sportsbooks and was finally getting recognized as a top defenseman in the NHL.
Notably, Dobson played the 14th most minutes per game and 13th most minutes in the entire NHL this season while also finishing seventh in points for a defenseman and second in primary assists. He was an offensive beast, and fans should be ecstatic with his development. Moving forward, there is no reason to believe he will not continue to improve as the Islanders surround him with the assets necessary to round out his game.
Dobson will be one of the more talked about Islanders this offseason, given his strong 2023-24 campaign as well as his contract situation. He is set to be a restricted free agent following the 2024-25 season, and his next contract could come in at north of $8 million if he continues to improve. While this would be a tough blow to the team’s cap situation, it would be a blessing to have a franchise defenseman ready to hit his prime.
