Every season it is entertaining to watch the rookies battle it out and showcase who is the best up-and-comer. Sometimes players who were just drafted that year can make an impact, but other times it takes a few years for some to develop and come in hot to the NHL.
While the NHL is filling up with great young talent, the 2023-24 season should present us with an amazing group of rookies at all positions from all around the league breaking in and contending for the Calder Trophy. With so much talent, I had to split the rookies who deserve early attention into three groups – top contenders, challengers if they’re playing in the NHL, and dark horses.
Top Contenders
In the top group, there are the more notable names that will be in the NHL this season and most likely higher up in the lineup. For the most part, they will also have decent linemates at worst and some could have very impactful linemates or partners that will help their rookie season immensely.
There are seven top contenders this season consisting of four forwards, two defensemen, and one goalie. The forwards are Connor Bedard, Adam Fantilli, Jakob Pelletier, and Matthew Knies. The defensemen are Brandt Clarke and Luke Hughes, while the goalie is Devon Levi. Now let’s look at what makes each of them top contenders for the Calder Trophy in 2023-24.
Starting with the forwards, Bedard is the favourite to win the Rookie of the Year as he appears to be a generational talent that is on the same level as Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews were when they were first drafted and broke into the NHL. He will be the Chicago Blackhawks’ number-one center, get top power-play time, and play with the likes of Taylor Hall. The over/under goal total for Bedard is 32.5 and he should definitely be a finalist at the very least.
The other 2023 draftee, Fantilli, could very well be centering the second line of the revamped and healthy young Columbus Blue Jackets. If so, he will be playing with some pretty good players and get opportunities to put up points. Boone Jenner, Jack Roslovic, and Cole Sillinger will all be in the mix, so Fantilli might get a shot on the wing to start as Kent Johnson did last season. There will be competition for Fantilli and if he lands a favourable spot in the lineup all season, he’ll be in the running.
Next up is Pelletier who has absolutely dominated the American Hockey League (AHL) since turning pro and was finally given a shot in the NHL in the latter half of last season. He played 24 games, one fewer than the number of games that would have made him a rookie in the NHL in 2022-23. A lot of the wingers on the Calgary Flames will be shuffled around, especially after the departure of Tyler Toffoli, so Pelletier could see some bigger minutes and regularly play with better players on a potential bounce-back candidate team.
The final forward in this top group is Knies who impressed in his short time in the NHL at the end of last season. He only played three regular season games, but got into seven playoff games, scoring four points. With Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi signing with the team, it could be difficult for Knies to get the same time alongside the same players as he did last season, but if he does, he can score and will be a threat for the Calder.
Moving over to the defensemen, Clarke had a very impressive showing in his limited time with the Los Angeles Kings before being sent back to junior. The team made the necessary moves to open up space for him to stay with the team and shine like he did in those nine games in 2022-23. He was tried on both the power play and the penalty kill, so his minutes could rise and his impact be greater with ice time in all situations.
Hughes was thrust right into the fire and handled it well at the end of last season. Joining his brother in New Jersey, he should be given the opportunity on the top pairing alongside Dougie Hamilton and some special teams as well. In his first five NHL games, he recorded four points. He can produce and if he also shows a solid ability on the defensive side of the puck, he could be an easy finalist with the opportunity he’s sure to get.
The Buffalo Sabres appear to be confident heading into the season with the goalies they have, meaning Levi will get a great opportunity to continue where he left off in 2022-23 and assume the starting job. The Sabres made some moves to get better on the back end to help reduce goals against. They may not be the best defensive team in the league, but Levi will have more help and could also pile up the wins with a potentially better team in front of him this season.
Challengers if They’re Playing in the NHL
This group of rookies are all very talented but are in this group of challengers because there is uncertainty surrounding them as to where they’ll start the season. I believe that each of the nine players here will play in the NHL at some point this season, but also might not play enough games to get consideration. The players in this group are Leo Carlsson, Brad Lambert, Tyson Foerster, Olen Zellweger, Kevin Korchinski, David Jiricek, Simon Nemec, Simon Edvinsson, and Dustin Wolf. As you might have noticed, there are more defensemen here as it is harder to break in early to the NHL as a defenseman.
Starting with the 2023 second-overall pick, Carlsson is signed and will get a good opportunity to make the Anaheim Ducks out of training camp. He put up good numbers in the Swedish Hockey League (SHL) last season and has played 92 professional games overseas already. He is talented enough to make the team, but if he does, he might be limited to the third line or second if he’s lucky. If he’s on the second line, pencil him in to get votes for the Calder Trophy, but if he’s on the third line, it will be more of a development year with not as much expected from him.
Lambert will get another long look in the preseason after his very impressive showing last year that almost got him a spot on the opening night roster as the 30th overall pick in the 2022 Draft. He had a strong season and the Winnipeg Jets are definitely looking different ahead of this season already. While the team moved a couple of big names, they also brought in some middle-six players as well who will be ahead of Lambert on the depth chart. If he has another impressive showing, I could see the Jets giving him a shot and seeing if the 19-year-old can run with it.
There’s no arguing that the Philadelphia Flyers are trying to rebuild and could get even worse in the next couple of months if they move out even more players. Even if that doesn’t happen right away, Foerster has shown great talent and will be given a long look. In eight NHL games last season, he scored three goals and seven points. There is a lot of young talent in that organization now, and some will have to start being brought in. That will start with Foerster this season, and if he’s in the top-six like he was for his trial, he will be one to watch.
Heading back around to the Ducks, they have another potential star in the making, this time on defense. Zellweger has shown a ton of talent and the rebuilding Ducks could very well run with him this season as they don’t have a strong group of defensemen to choose from. His offense and skating are things to watch and he has always put up a ton of goals and points for a defenseman.
Jiricek and Nemec are in similar places for their respective teams. While Jiricek is stuck in a logjam in Columbus and might not get a chance to play in the NHL all season, Nemec too might not start the season in the NHL. These past high picks are the future, but there’s only a certain amount of young players a contender like the New Jersey Devils can have on their back end with Hughes and Kevil Bahl already expected to play in the NHL. There’s a better chance we see Nemec play more games despite the Devils having Colin Miller on the team, but the Blue Jackets might also not be done moving players around, opening up a spot for Jiricek to get regular playing time. Either could surprise, if they’re given a chance.
Korchinski has to play in the NHL this season on the Blackhawks or return to the Seattle Thunderbirds for yet another season. With him ready to turn pro and ineligible to play in the AHL this season, he will get a long look in training camp and should make the team. Not only should he make it, but the top Blackhawks’ defensive prospect in a decade will likely be slotted onto the top pairing alongside Seth Jones and get lots of important playing time. It’s no certainty, but all the signs point to the Blackhawks keeping the 19-year-old around for the season where they can watch him closely. There isn’t a ton of pressure on the Blackhawks to win this season, so rostering more than one rookie will be more than okay for the team.
The Detroit Red Wings made a number of defensive additions and signings late last season that could prevent Edvinsson from getting regular playing time in the NHL this season. The Red Wings have turned a corner and are ready to fight until the end for a playoff spot, meaning they aren’t planning on filling their roster with rookies for the sake of it. With six NHL defensemen, Edvinsson will either have to take over Olli Maatta’s role or develop for a year in the AHL. He has the talent to do so, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
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The Flames can no longer keep Wolf out of the NHL and haven’t made a move this offseason to open up a spot for him. That could still change, but his numbers have been incredible in not only the past two AHL seasons but in junior as well. His NHL debut went very well and he is the future in net for the Flames. Seeing as he may have to start the season in the AHL because of the lack of moves made by the team, it could hurt his chances of playing enough games to get consideration for the Calder Trophy.
Dark Horses
Every year there are a few rookies that come out of nowhere and surprise everyone to compete for the Calder Trophy, even if they aren’t finalists. Some take full advantage of opportunities such as injuries and players being moved by the trade deadline, and others fight their way up the lineup and their production is too hard not to reward. The right situation could see these seven players be right in the Rookie of the Year race. Here they are – Shane Wright, Matthew Coronato, Pavel Dorofeyev, Luke Evangelista, Ridly Greig, Brock Faber, and Joel Hofer.
Wright wasn’t able to come in and contribute on a regular basis last season as a high pick due to the influx of depth the Seattle Kraken already had. Head coach Dave Hakstol continued to play who he thought would best help the team, and it worked, but Wright was forced to return to junior. This season there have been moves to create space for him on the team, but he could start in the bottom-six. There’s a possibility he gets moved up if he plays well, but even with the contribution of the depth we expect from Seattle, it will be difficult to compete with top-six players for the Calder if Wright plays lower in the lineup.
Coronato played one game for the Flames at the end of last season and even though he went pointless, it was a good debut. With Darryl Sutter out as head coach, there will be a little more emphasis on getting the young talented players into the NHL lineup and this will most likely include Coronato. He won’t be buried on the fourth line, but could have the opportunity to play anywhere from the third line to the first line since the right wing is a weak area for the team. He can score and put up points, something the Flames will be looking for after the poor offensive showing of last season.
Dorofeyev came in hot for the Vegas Golden Knights last season but wasn’t utilized in the big games such as the playoffs. He could be playing anywhere from the second to the fourth line, but since he’s not waiver exempt anymore, the AHL isn’t an option. He is a pure goal scorer and could win a favourable spot in the lineup all season this year, placing him on the wing alongside some very good players. If so, the goals he should score should get him some consideration.
Evangelista was part of the group of young players that took advantage of a great opportunity in Nashville last season when players got injured and others were traded. He played top-six minutes and put up seven goals and 15 points in 24 games, one short of getting rookie status last season. He is expected to play on the top line alongside Filip Forsberg and Ryan O’Reilly, so his great passing ability could translate to a lot of assists and points, especially if he’s utilized on the power play again.
Greig got a good opportunity late last season to suit up for 20 games for the Ottawa Senators and didn’t disappoint. With a spot secured on the third line and the potential to move up during the season to play in the top-six, the rookie will be given a solid chance of producing. At the very least, the Senators will have a better third line and they will score more than they did last season.
The Minnesota Wild transformed their defense a bit this offseason and after seeing what Faber could do, could very well run with him on the second pairing. A good opportunity and lots of playing time beside Jonas Brodin on an evenly distributed and productive team could open some eyes to the rookie defender. He won’t get power-play time, but he could impress with his overall play.
The last of the dark horses is the backup goaltender of the St. Louis Blues, but as Jordan Binnington has slowly been declining since winning the Stanley Cup, Hofer could see a good amount of games. I see this as a similar situation to the Edmonton Oilers last season where the presumed starter struggles and the rookie backup takes over. If Hofer can play around half of the games and put up decent numbers, he will definitely be in consideration as there won’t be very many rookie goaltenders with as good of an opportunity.
Not only should you get acquainted with all of these talented rookies, but who knows what other young players could come out of nowhere and get on the radar as well.
Who are your three picks to be finalists and who do you like as a dark horse? Let me know in the comments.