The NHL regular season has concluded, with the playoffs set to begin tomorrow. We covered who’s hot and who’s not in the Western Conference entering the postseason. Now let’s do the same for the Eastern Conference.
New York Rangers: Hot, But With Red Flags
It was a historic season for the New York Rangers, as they finished with a 55-23-4 record and 114 points, good for the Presidents’ Trophy and first place in the Eastern Conference. They didn’t slow down in the regular season’s final weeks, finishing with a 7-3-0 record across their last ten games. However, there are some red flags.
The Rangers actually played quite well at five-on-five in their last ten games, posting a 54.4 expected goals percentage (xG%). But some of that may be due to quality of competition. Seven of their final ten games came against teams who missed the playoffs, including the Ottawa Senators, Montreal Canadiens and Arizona Coyotes, who will have lottery picks in the draft.
If you expand the Rangers’ dataset to 25 games, they have a 48.5 xG%. Usually, the 25-game set is more predictive of playoff success, so what will it be for the Rangers? I think they’re a very good team. They have a lethal power play and one of the best goaltenders in the NHL in Igor Shesterkin.
But as history suggests, teams that struggle at five-on-five usually meet their match at some point in the playoffs. Can the Rangers buck that trend? I don’t think they’ll have many problems, if any, against the Washington Capitals in Round 1, but it’ll only get tougher from there.
Carolina Hurricanes: Absolute Wagon
Aside from the Winnipeg Jets, I’m not sure there’s a hotter team in the NHL than the Carolina Hurricanes. They’re 7-3-0 in their last ten games, just like the Rangers. But they’ve been absolutely on fire since the trade deadline and acquiring Jake Guentzel from the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Guentzel is the type of game-breaker the Hurricanes have been missing in their last few playoff runs, and he’s been exactly what the team was hoping for when they acquired him. He had eight goals and 25 points in 17 games after the trade, and the Hurricanes have been borderline bludgeoning teams at five-on-five.
Since Guentzel played his first game for the Hurricanes on March 12, they have a 58.8 xG% at five-on-five, ranked first in the NHL. They’re averaging 3.15 expected goals per 60 offensively and only allowing 2.20 expected goals per 60 defensively. Their record over that stretch is an impressive 13-4-1.
When you expand the stats to include the Hurricanes’ last 25 games, they have a 58.74 xG% at five-on-five and are 18-5-2. The one question I have about this team is goaltending, but it’s not as much of a concern as it was in previous years. With Guentzel making such a difference, they seem like the team to beat in the East.
Florida Panthers: Getting Hot
There was a couple-week stretch where I was concerned about the Florida Panthers, but they’ve righted the ship and are entering the playoffs on a four-game winning streak. Perhaps I shouldn’t have been too concerned about the Panthers because their five-on-five numbers have been among the best in the NHL this season, even when they had lost nine of 13.
The Panthers have a 58.91 xG% across their last ten games, and they’ll be getting some reinforcements for the playoffs, with Aaron Ekblad expected to return from an injury and Carter Verhaeghe already having played in the team’s finale after missing some time with an injury.
However, the Panthers’ xG% over their last 25 games is 50.82 percent, a middle-of-the-pack number. Still, I like where this Panthers team sits heading into the playoffs. They might not have an easy matchup in Round 1 against the Tampa Bay Lightning, who played well to end the season. But they are Cup contenders again after making it to the Final a year ago.
Boston Bruins: Lukewarm and With Red Flags
If there’s a team that continuously defies expectations, it’s the Boston Bruins. They lost plenty of key players last offseason, namely Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci, who retired from the NHL. That left the team with Charlie Coyle and Pavel Zacha as their No. 1 and 2 centers, but they answered the bell this season.
Still, there are some red flags in the Bruins’ game, too. They finished the season 6-4-0 in their last ten games, a solid record, but it’s not like they played well. The Bruins totaled a 45.5 xG% across their final ten games, a sign there may be trouble brewing. Their numbers across their previous 25 games are better, as they’re break-even in xG%, so perhaps fans shouldn’t be too alarmed.
The Bruins will be facing the Toronto Maple Leafs in Round 1 for what seems like the umpteenth time. If they play as they did across their final ten games, they might be in trouble against a potent Leafs offense. Their saving grace will be their goaltending, as they have arguably the best tandem in the NHL with Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman. They may have to rely on them to defeat the Maple Leafs one more time.
Toronto Maple Leafs: Lukewarm
The Maple Leafs broke the first-round curse a season ago, but this team is capable of so much more than winning just one round in the playoffs. They lost their last two regular-season games and finished with a 5-4-1 record across their final ten games. But despite the .500 record across those ten games, they played quite well.
Related: Western Conference Playoff Teams: Who’s Hot & Who’s Not
Toronto totaled a 54.04 xG% across their last ten games. We all know their offense is legit, but their defense was solid to close the regular season, allowing 2.42 expected goals per 60 across those ten games. Even over their previous 25 contests, the Maple Leafs’ five-on-five numbers look good; they have a 53.42 xG%.
Maybe this is a hot take, but the Maple Leafs look like a better team than the Bruins. The problem is their fatal flaw is goaltending, which is far from the case with the Bruins. Joseph Woll has an .890 save percentage since returning from a high-ankle sprain (10 games), while Ilya Samsonov has an .896 SV% for the season.
That’s no comparison between Ullmark and Swayman. The Bruins have the advantage here, and though they may be a worse team than the Maple Leafs, that could give them the edge.
Tampa Bay Lightning: Mild and With Red Flags
The Lightning might not be the loaded squad they were when they went to three straight Stanley Cup Finals a few years ago, but they are still a threat to do some damage. Nikita Kucherov is having a Hart-worthy season, and the team had a decent close after a slow start to 2023-24.
Jon Cooper’s team only went 5-4-1 in their final ten games, though they were 15-7-3 across their final 25 contests. However, they have some red flags, like the Rangers and Bruins. The Lightning totaled a 47.49 xG% in their last ten games, and those don’t improve much when you expand it to 25 games. They have a 48.4 xG% across that stretch, meaning they might be in trouble.
Of course, you can never count out a core of Kucherov, Brayden Point, Steven Stamkos, Andrei Vasilevskiy and Victor Hedman. Still, they might be outmatched against the Panthers. Perhaps that matchup doesn’t look as difficult for the Panthers after all.
New York Islanders: Very Warm
The New York Islanders may have been one of the streakiest teams in the NHL this season, but they did improve under new head coach Patrick Roy. They finished 20-12-1 with him as head coach and went on an 8-1-1 run to secure a playoff spot with 94 points.
It wasn’t just their win/loss record that improved under Roy, too. Their five-on-five numbers saw an uptick, as they had a 50.6 xG% in their last 25 games, all of which came with Roy as head coach. Even when you limit the sample to ten games, the Islanders have a 50.99 xG%.
Unfortunately, the problem for the Islanders is they’re getting a buzzsaw in Round 1 with the Hurricanes. I’ve seen a lot of experts picking the Hurricanes in five games or even sweeping the Islanders. It wouldn’t shock me if that happens, but I think the Islanders can make it a bit more interesting than some might suspect. They have the goaltending to do so, but the Hurricanes will likely be too much in a seven-game series.
Washington Capitals: What the Heck?
Last but not least, the Washington Capitals. I’m not going to lie to you. I have no idea how this team made the playoffs, as they finished with a goal differential of minus-37. It’s not unheard of for a team with a goal differential that bad to make the playoffs, but it is very rare.
Yet, to be fair to them, they did have a solid close to 2023-24. They ended the season on a three-game winning streak, and their five-on-five numbers in their last ten games were actually solid; they had a 51.02 xG%. However, they weren’t all that great in their previous 25 games, totaling a 48.8 xG%.
The Capitals’ offense is pretty brutal, but they do defend well. Still, they will need the best defensive series of their lives to stave off the Rangers. Charlie Lindgren does give them a bit of a chance, too. But to the point where he outplays Shesterkin? That seems unlikely. The Capitals certainly overachieved, and even though they were decent in their last ten games, an upset of the Rangers seems almost improbable.
East Could Have Some Upsets
The Eastern Conference isn’t likely to be as much of a gauntlet as the West, but there are still some good matchups. The difference between the East and West is there are some teams with red flags, so perhaps that means some upsets are brewing. Time will tell.
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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick