Predictions are always fun but never easy — and rarely right.
With the parity in today’s NHL — false or not — making predictions becomes that much more difficult. Especially when it comes to the standings, let alone predicting the playoff picture prior to the puck dropping on the regular season.
This year feels as challenging as ever — and more so than most. There are hardly a handful of teams that can be written off from Day 1. Only a couple don’t stand any chance. And just watch, even one of them will somehow prove that wrong.
There are at least 25 teams with a realistic hope of earning the 16 available playoff berths heading into this season. In a 31-team league, that certainly qualifies as parity. And quantifies that debate.
Injuries, in-season management and flat-out luck will be among the determining factors, as per usual.
I have already been ridiculed over my positional rankings this fall — and the resulting power rankings — so I’m not expecting these predictions to be well received by every fan base.
Nobody wants to hear, read or see their team missing the playoffs. Not when most are optimistic about that potential, with the majority of fans taking a glass half-full outlook in anticipation of making the postseason.
My preseason standings predictions differ from those power rankings because coaching and management, special teams and systems, leadership and intangibles, strength of schedule and quality of division, as well as recent results weren’t taken into account for that project.
In addition to all that, I’m going with my gut in some cases where all things appear equal or too close to call. And I’ll be playing a few hunches — for better or worse. If I didn’t, it wouldn’t be nearly as fun.
So without further ado, here is how I foresee the 2019-20 NHL season playing out — from the division standings to the playoff picture to the draft lottery, followed by analysis on each team and my final thoughts.
Central Division
1) Nashville Predators
2) St. Louis Blues
3) Dallas Stars
4) Chicago Blackhawks
5) Colorado Avalanche
6) Winnipeg Jets
7) Minnesota Wild
Pacific Division
1) Vegas Golden Knights
2) San Jose Sharks
3) Calgary Flames
4) Vancouver Canucks
5) Arizona Coyotes
6) Anaheim Ducks
7) Edmonton Oilers
8) Los Angeles Kings
Atlantic Division
1) Tampa Bay Lightning
2) Toronto Maple Leafs
3) Florida Panthers
4) Boston Bruins
5) Montreal Canadiens
6) Buffalo Sabres
7) Detroit Red Wings
8) Ottawa Senators
Metropolitan Division
1) Washington Capitals
2) Philadelphia Flyers
3) Pittsburgh Penguins
4) New Jersey Devils
5) Carolina Hurricanes
6) New York Rangers
7) New York Islanders
8) Columbus Blue Jackets
Playoff Picture
Western Conference
First Round
C1) Nashville Predators vs. WC2) Colorado Avalanche
C2) St. Louis Blues vs. C3) Dallas Stars
P1) Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC1) Chicago Blackhawks
P2) San Jose Sharks vs. P3) Calgary Flames
Second Round
C1) Nashville Predators vs. C2) St. Louis Blues
P1) Vegas Golden Knights vs. P2) San Jose Sharks
Third Round
C2) St. Louis Blues vs. P1) Vegas Golden Knights
Eastern Conference
First Round
A1) Tampa Bay Lightning vs. WC2) New Jersey Devils
A2) Toronto Maple Leafs vs. A3) Florida Panthers
M1) Washington Capitals vs. WC1) Boston Bruins
M2) Philadelphia Flyers vs. M3) Pittsburgh Penguins
Second Round
A1) Tampa Bay Lightning vs. A2) Toronto Maple Leafs
WC1) Boston Bruins vs. M3) Pittsburgh Penguins
Third Round
A2) Toronto Maple Leafs vs. WC1) Boston Bruins
Fourth Round
Stanley Cup Final
A2) Toronto Maple Leafs vs. C2) St. Louis Blues
PREDICTION: Toronto over St. Louis in six games.
Draft Lottery Order
1) Ottawa Senators
2) Detroit Red Wings
3) Los Angeles Kings
4) Edmonton Oilers
5) Anaheim Ducks
6) Columbus Blue Jackets
7) Minnesota Wild
8) Buffalo Sabres
9) Arizona Coyotes
10) New York Islanders
11) New York Rangers
12) Vancouver Canucks
13) Montreal Canadiens
14) Carolina Hurricanes
15) Winnipeg Jets
Central Division
1) Nashville Predators
ANALYSIS: Starting in the division of the defending champs, Nashville is coming off a playoff disappointment but remains in good shape for another strong regular season. The Predators will be mighty motivated and should be more powerful with the addition of Matt Duchene. Their power play should be much improved thanks to new assistant coach Dan Lambert. The subtraction of P.K. Subban takes away some distraction, but Dante Fabbro does have big shoes to fill there. Nashville’s goaltending tandem is one of the league’s best and the Preds also possess one of the deeper forward groups. I like the chances of Kyle Turris rebounding and Mikael Granlund making a significant impact in his first full season with Nashville. As long as the top three stay healthy on defence, the Predators will be tough to beat, but the reigning champs will be difficult to dethrone come playoff time.
2) St. Louis Blues
ANALYSIS: St. Louis had a contender on paper from the outset last year but underachieved over the first half of the season before getting hot and going all the way to hoist the franchise’s first Stanley Cup. There could be a slight hangover, but that core is completely intact to take a run at repeating. Gone is local boy Patrick Maroon and shutdown defender Joel Edmundson, who was swapped for offensive blueliner Justin Faulk from Carolina. That should be an upgrade for the Blues, who now boast Alex Pietrangelo, Colton Parayko and Faulk on the right side of their defence. It doesn’t get much better than that. Top to bottom, it doesn’t get much better than St. Louis — providing Jordan Binnington picks up where he left off. The offence will be sufficient, the defence will be superior, so it all comes down to goaltending again — and Binnington hasn’t given us any reason to doubt him yet. This is a battle-tested team with the horses to come out of the West again, but those battles will be every bit as challenging this time around.
3) Dallas Stars
ANALYSIS: Dallas pushed St. Louis to overtime in Game 7 of the second round, coming closer to knocking off the Blues than any other playoff opponent. The Stars have since added three key veterans in Joe Pavelski, Corey Perry and Andrej Sekera — a sign that Jim Nill believes their window to win is right now. And the roster, as it stands, suggests he’s right in that assessment. The returning core of Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, Alex Radulov, John Klingberg and Ben Bishop are elite talents, with sophomores Miro Heiskanen and Roope Hintz continuing to trend up. Heiskanen, in particular, has an extremely high ceiling and might only be scratching the surface. If they take another step — as anticipated — and the aforementioned players stay healthy for the most part, the Stars could turn into a real force. Dallas’ coaching staff has a year under their belt now too, which should prove beneficial as Jim Montgomery and Todd Nelson try to take this team to the next level with the help of Rick Bowness and John Stevens, who joined the fold to add more experience and expertise — ensuring coaching will be a strength for the Stars. The sky is the limit for Dallas, but the playoff road will likely run through St. Louis again. That rematch should be epic if it comes to fruition, but it’s hard to bet against the Blues.
4) Chicago Blackhawks
ANALYSIS: Chicago could be one of the league’s most improved teams this season, upgrading at all three positions after making strides in the second half of last season. Jeremy Colliton’s systems were taking hold and Marc Crawford will certainly be an asset for that staff. Andrew Shaw is one of those glue guys when it comes to culture, but a few of the other new forwards could make bigger impacts in Dominik Kubalik, Alex Nylander and perhaps even Kirby Dach, the third overall pick in this year’s draft. On defence, Olli Maatta and Calvin de Haan should shore things up and Adam Boqvist could become another weapon from the back end. In goal, Robin Lehner comes to Chicago as a Vezina finalist to complement a healthy Corey Crawford. The old guard of Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook are still the faces of this franchise, but the Blackhawks are retooling on the fly with a chance to contend again sooner than later. I’d be surprised if Chicago missed the playoffs again in 2020.
5) Colorado Avalanche
ANALYSIS: Colorado is a team on the rise — as evidenced by upsetting Calgary in the first round — and the future is bright for the Avs. There is no disputing that, but the present is still an uphill battle in this division. Colorado is deep up front but young on the back end and relatively inexperienced in goal. That youth and inexperience will be tested this season, but if the likes of Samuel Girard, Cale Makar, Conor Timmins, Philipp Grubauer and Pavel Francouz pass those tests, Colorado could be contending for the division title. If not, the Avs could be on the outside looking in altogether. I sort of split that difference in predicting a wild-card berth again, but I could see it going either way and only time will tell for Colorado.
6) Winnipeg Jets
ANALYSIS: Winnipeg has endured some turmoil this fall — with the Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor contract situations and the uncertainty surrounding Dustin Byfuglien — after suffering a fair bit of turnover, especially on defence with the losses of Jacob Trouba, Tyler Myers and Ben Chiarot. Those three aren’t easily replaceable — not from within — so that puts more pressure on Connor Hellebuyck. The goaltending will need to be better than ever because the new-look defence is going to leak chances against and the Jets aren’t going to be able to outscore everyone on a nightly basis. Winnipeg’s forward group is plenty potent, but the defence is very much a work in progress and could hold the Jets back. The playoffs are no certainty this season, even though it’s difficult to envision Winnipeg missing the cut. If the Central could send six teams to the postseason, it’s entirely possible the Jets could be better than the third seed from the Pacific — that’s how stacked this division is shaping up to be, but not everyone can make it.
7) Minnesota Wild
ANALYSIS: Minnesota is a total wild card this season. On paper, this team isn’t very impressive, but Bruce Boudreau typically wins more than he loses in the regular season. That fact can’t be ignored and the Wild are one of those teams that can’t be written off. Minnesota still has a solid top four on defence and a quality starting goaltender in Devan Dubnyk. The forward group is full of question marks, but Boudreau’s teams rarely struggle to score. If he can get the most out of Kevin Fiala, Ryan Donato, Jordan Greenway, Joel Eriksson Ek and Luke Kunin as the supporting cast, that would go a long way towards keeping Minnesota in the playoff mix. Bill Guerin might see this as more of a developmental year for the Wild, but it’s never wise to count out Boudreau and there could more offence on the way if Guerin can get Kirill Kaprizov signed, sealed and delivered from Russia following the KHL season. That is something for Minnesota fans to look forward to — regardless of the results in the meantime.
Pacific Division
1) Vegas Golden Knights
ANALYSIS: Vegas has constructed a formidable top-six forward group and has a top-10 goaltender as the last line of defence. That bodes well for the Golden Knights to wind up on top of the league’s weakest division. Vegas doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses and although the defenders don’t jump off the page by name, the whole is greater than the sum of its parts at that position. Unheralded but effective, with Marc-Andre Fleury to mask some of their mistakes. Gerard Gallant has already enjoyed a ton of success in the two seasons since expansion, but now the expectations are higher for Vegas — both in the city and around the league. The Golden Knights are expected to be good this season and they shouldn’t disappoint. They will be fired up after the way last season ended in the playoffs, so look out for Vegas again.
2) San Jose Sharks
ANALYSIS: San Jose is the other team in the Pacific that looks like a playoff lock despite losing a few top-nine forwards in the offseason — namely Joe Pavelski, Joonas Donskoi and Gustav Nyquist, who was only a rental. Retaining Erik Karlsson was the key move for the Sharks, keeping together that dynamic duo on defence with Brent Burns. The forward group is depleted to some degree and thus newer faces or lesser talents are going to need to step up for San Jose. Secondary scoring is something of a concern, but there will be plenty of offence from the defence and the goaltending should be decent again. Martin Jones will need to be better than decent for the Sharks to have any playoff success, but they shouldn’t have a problem making the postseason in the Pacific.
3) Calgary Flames
ANALYSIS: Calgary is the best of the rest and the Pacific is guaranteed three berths. The Flames overachieved in winning the division last season before getting bounced in the first round. Calgary didn’t change much in the offseason — outside of that strange move for Milan Lucic and the signing of Cam Talbot — but that continuity under Bill Peters should help the Flames hit the ground running. A good start would give Calgary a leg up on the competition for this third seed. The Flames will be the favourite to claim it — resulting in the same three teams making the playoffs from the Pacific as last season — but Calgary is a candidate for regression and could certainly fall back to the pack from their first-place finish. However, it’s hard to imagine any of the next five teams overtaking the Flames.
4) Vancouver Canucks
ANALYSIS: Vancouver is the team most likely to challenge from the non-playoff clubs, but the Canucks are probably more of a threat to the third seed in the Pacific than either of the wild cards from the Central. Jim Benning has accelerated his rebuild, adding J.T. Miller and Micheal Ferland up front and Tyler Myers on the back end, which also now features Quinn Hughes in a prominent role. Jordie Benn and Oscar Fantenberg provide depth on defence and the Canucks are plenty deep at forward. The goaltending should be good again from the tandem of Jacob Markstrom and Thatcher Demko. We’ll see if Elias Pettersson can take the next step towards superstardom as a sophomore and how high Brock Boeser’s goal total can climb as his wingman. We’ll also see how the new captain handles that responsibility — be it Bo Horvat or perhaps Pettersson — and how Travis Green handles the increased expectations with mounting pressure to win. Assuming all goes well on those fronts, Vancouver will be pushing hard in 2020 and could emerge as a surprise playoff team.
5) Arizona Coyotes
ANALYSIS: Arizona is right there with Vancouver as a team that should trend up and be knocking on the door this season. The Coyotes are going to score more with Phil Kessel in the fold as a legit sniper and full seasons of Nick Schmaltz and Christian Dvorak should result in a few more wins too. Forward depth has become a strength for Arizona, which was already in good shape on defence and has been getting above-average goaltending from Antti Raanta and Darcy Kuemper in recent years. Rick Tocchet has a solid team to work with, on paper, but he has to get the Coyotes believing this is their year to make the playoffs. That belief is key for Arizona and it’s easier said than done. The goaltending has to hold up, the defence has to stay healthy, and Clayton Keller has to be a consistent force alongside Kessel in order for that to become a reality. It’s all possible, so perhaps Arizona breaks through in 2020.
6) Anaheim Ducks
ANALYSIS: Anaheim leads off the also-rans in the Pacific, with these final three teams unlikely to be in the race. Stranger things have happened, but Dallas Eakins would need to discover some of that Disney magic — to make the above teams disappear — and John Gibson would have to stand on his head again while staying healthy for the Ducks to have any hope of the playoffs. Gibson is always going to be the key to Anaheim’s success since he’s one of the few goaltenders that can take a team on his back and potentially carry them to the promise land. But Gibson was great last season and his supporting cast appears weaker this season — or at least younger and thus less proven. The Ducks should be more fun to watch under Eakins, with all of his budding ducklings from San Diego, but Anaheim is embracing the rebuild and another top-10 pick awaits. So, no, the Ducks don’t belong in the playoff conversation as of today.
7) Edmonton Oilers
ANALYSIS: Edmonton isn’t set up for success this season. Any team led by Connor McDavid could theoretically take a run at the playoffs — he’s that much of a difference-maker — but Ken Holland is playing the long game by the looks of it. He inherited a top-10 prospect pool and will be sticking to a slow build, which is painful to hear for his fan base after missing the playoffs in 12 of the last 13 years. But this is the right step in moving forward and building around McDavid to potentially contend in the seasons to come. There was no quick fix for Holland, not with the limited cap space left behind by Peter Chiarelli. As a result, the Oilers still don’t have the secondary scoring to be taken seriously. Their defence is far from a strength and their goaltending is perhaps most concerning. Holland tried to address the forward depth, but the bottom six remains underwhelming and there are still two holes in the top six — or three if James Neal doesn’t return to his 20-goal form. Regardless, that was Holland’s best move to date, but the Oilers are staring down another losing season followed by another top-10 pick. Then it’ll be decision time on Darnell Nurse and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins — two players considered to be part of Edmonton’s current core. Adam Larsson and Jesse Puljujarvi decisions also await, so Holland will have a chance to reshape this roster if he so desires. The future could be bright in Edmonton, but the present is bleak and dire again.
8) Los Angeles Kings
ANALYSIS: Los Angeles is rebuilding. Rob Blake has shifted his focus to the future and tasked Todd McLellan with icing a competitive team in the present, but expectations are low for the Kings this season. They will be sellers again, with Tyler Toffoli likely the next to go. And they would welcome another top-five pick in the stacked 2020 draft. Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar, Jeff Carter, Dustin Brown and Jonathan Quick are prideful guys that won’t willingly accept that fate and McLellan will want to make a good first impression with his second California team, but the writing is already on the wall for the Kings to miss the playoffs. It would take another Miracle on Manchester for Los Angeles to make it, but it’ll be interesting to see where the Kings go from here and whether Blake attempts to move those other faces of the franchise.
Atlantic Division
1) Tampa Bay Lightning
ANALYSIS: Tampa Bay is the favourite to win the Presidents’ Trophy again, but the Lightning might try pacing themselves a bit better for the playoffs. Therefore, they may not run away with the regular-season title like last season. On paper, Tampa is still the team to beat. Yes, the Lightning got swept in the first round — nobody forgets that — but they have all the talent and the coaching to earn redemption this season. Not to mention the motivation. They will be missing Brayden Point to start the campaign, but Tampa is deep enough to overcome key injuries as proven in the past. Getting Kevin Shattenkirk and Patrick Maroon as late additions on team-friendly deals provided another level to that depth, with the Lightning now arguably looking better than a year ago. It would almost be shocking if Tampa didn’t repeat as the regular-season champs.
2) Toronto Maple Leafs
ANALYSIS: Toronto has done some serious retooling this offseason, overhauling the defence and also changing the complexion of the bottom-six forwards. Time will tell with that much turnover and it may take a while for everything to click, but this could be the best Leafs’ team in decades. This could be their year but any parade route will still have to go through Tampa and Boston, one way or the other. Those opponents are seemingly unavoidable. So is Toronto built to finally beat Boston? And to outgun Tampa? Those are daunting challenges, but Kyle Dubas has built a formidable blue line with the additions of Jake Muzzin, Tyson Barrie and even Cody Ceci, who could benefit from his change of scenery. Toronto’s top-six forwards are likely the league’s best, but the bottom six will be a work in progress. Mike Babcock has all kinds of options to flesh out his forward group, while Frederik Andersen remains the only real option in goal. But as long as Andersen stays healthy, Toronto is in good shape to finally win a playoff round and ride that momentum all the way to Yonge Street.
3) Florida Panthers
ANALYSIS: Florida could be the real surprise in the Atlantic. Joel Quenneville could give the Panthers a bump the way Barry Trotz did the Islanders last season. Quenneville should help Aaron Ekblad and Michael Matheson take their games to another level. Sergei Bobrovsky is also a difference-maker in net. The forward group is deep and quite potent, though Artemi Panarin would have really turned this team into a contender. Brett Connolly was the consolation prize in free agency, but the signings of Anton Stralman and Noel Acciari will also be impactful in shoring up the roster. The Panthers are looking good on paper — looking like a playoff team — and Quenneville will ensure those looks translate to the ice.
4) Boston Bruins
ANALYSIS: Boston is still a playoff team — as battle tested as anyone — but that run to the final presumably took its toll on the Bruins’ veteran core. Those are hard miles with a short offseason and quick turnaround. So don’t be surprised if Boston struggles a bit in the regular season. The Bruins will turn it up when it matters most, but it may take them a while to get up to speed and firing on all cylinders again. No matter, they are confident in their abilities when the real games begin and the regular season is just a stepping stone towards that. As long as they get in, the Bruins will be a tough out again — especially if they crossover to the Metro as a wild-card team. That would be fun to see — to change things up a bit in the East — but Boston’s roster remains much the same, so there is no reason to doubt the Bruins come playoff time. And there will be no shame in finishing fourth in the Atlantic, which could have four 100-point teams this season.
5) Montreal Canadiens
ANALYSIS: Montreal won’t be too far behind in the wild-card race, providing Carey Price and Shea Weber avoid injuries. Price is still the key to the Canadiens’ success, but their scoring depth has improved in recent years and should take another step forward this season — with the arrival of Nick Suzuki and eventually Ryan Poehling, plus the possibility of adding Cole Caufield for the stretch run. Jesperi Kotkaniemi will be that much better too, but Montreal still lacks a real star up front. The Canadiens missed the mark with their offer sheet to Sebastian Aho and resisted taking another swing. Another impact player in their top six would go a long way in securing a playoff spot. Montreal’s defence isn’t deep in the present and probably couldn’t withstand an injury to Weber or Jeff Petry. A lot would have to go right for the Habs to make the playoffs — starting with staying mostly healthy — but it’s not out of the realm of possibility.
6) Buffalo Sabres
ANALYSIS: Buffalo has a lot of the pieces in place — including the right coach in Ralph Krueger — but I’m hesitant to get too high on the Sabres after wrongfully predicting them as a playoff team the past two seasons. Goaltending has held them back and that continues to be a concern. The defence should be better, but injuries are already plaguing Buffalo’s blue line again. That group would be good if it could ever stay healthy, but the Sabres quite literally had to sign a dozen defencemen just to ice a healthy six. That is obviously problematic and has prevented trading Rasmus Ristolainen for another top-six forward. That might be a blessing if Krueger can better utilize Ristolainen to maximize his potential. Rasmus Dahlin will be more impactful as a sophomore and Casey Mittelstadt should be too. Buffalo has enough high-end talent to contend for a playoff berth — and maybe the third time would have been the charm for my bold prediction — but it’s hard to bet on that goaltending. Perhaps Ukko-Pekka Luukonen will save the day when all else fails.
7) Detroit Red Wings
ANALYSIS: Detroit is in the midst of a rebuild, with Steve Yzerman now overseeing that process. The Red Wings aren’t a playoff-calibre team and thus will be prioritizing development this season. Yzerman has to determine if Jeff Blashill will be his coach going forward and that will depend largely on how Detroit’s top prospects and high draft picks progress under his watch this season. Filip Zadina and Michael Rasmussen are both starting out in Grand Rapids but need to take significant steps and solidify themselves as part of this team’s future core. That is more important than wins and losses. The Red Wings will be sellers, attempting to shop some of their longer-serving veterans for more futures. Yzerman will certainly be reshaping this roster to his liking over the next calendar year. Detroit has decent scoring ability and experienced goaltending, so the Red Wings could be more competitive than most expect, but almost everyone is anticipating a lottery team.
8) Ottawa Senators
ANALYSIS: Ottawa is starting from the bottom and expected to stay there this season. The Senators have help on the way — the Baby Sens in Belleville could emerge as AHL contenders — but the NHL squad is still in shambles with several Toronto castoffs and fringe players surrounding a few core pieces. More prospects will make their way onto the parent club as this season plays out and there is nowhere to go but up from here, but it’s sure to be another trying campaign in the Canadian capital. D.J. Smith will have this team trending up before long — perhaps as early as next season — but he’ll be hard pressed to gain much traction with the current roster. The Senators are destined to be cellar dwellers again.
Metropolitan Division
1) Washington Capitals
ANALYSIS: Saving the most difficult division for last, the Metro is seemingly wide open from top to bottom and almost impossible to predict. Anything is possible this season, with anywhere from three to five of the eight teams making the playoffs. As far as locks go, Washington is the safest bet. There is no real favourite to win this division, but the Capitals have been there before and are still well equipped to contend in what could be the final season of Braden Holtby and Nicklas Backstrom. They are both pending free agents — like Bobrovsky and Panarin were for Columbus last season — so I’m expecting Washington to go all-in for one last run with this core group. The Capitals might be able to retain one or both of them going forward, but this could also be their last chance in this window to win. Brian MacLellan surely realizes that and will do his best to make the most of the opportunity at hand. Washington won’t have much cap space to load up between now and the deadline, but the current roster may still be the team to beat in the Metro.
2) Philadelphia Flyers
ANALYSIS: Philadelphia is one of a few teams trending up in this division. Shoring up the blue line with veterans Matt Niskanen and Justin Braun should result in more success for the Flyers. As should adding Kevin Hayes as a two-way centre to take some heavy lifting off Nolan Patrick, who could excel in a sheltered role this season once he overcomes a migraine issue. The Flyers are deeper — both at forward and defence — but the key continues to be goaltending for Philadelphia. This is Carter Hart’s team now and he’ll need to be a difference-maker in his first full season if the Flyers hope to soar this high in the standings. There isn’t much room for error in the Metro, so if Hart struggles as a sophomore, Philadelphia could miss the playoffs again. But the Flyers have more stability on their roster and a trio of former NHL head coaches to guide them back to the postseason.
3) Pittsburgh Penguins
ANALYSIS: Pittsburgh’s core is getting older, but Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin aren’t past their prime yet. They will be determined to write another chapter in their legacy — and make amends — after getting swept by the Islanders in the first round. The Penguins tweaked their forward group more to Mike Sullivan’s liking, which should be productive, but this season hinges on the health of Kris Letang and Matt Murray, who has to provide consistent goaltending from start to finish. Injuries have plagued Pittsburgh in recent years, but the Penguins should be rested from a longer offseason and recovered from any nagging ailments. The defence is still a cause for concern and the position that Jim Rutherford will likely address as the season progresses. But Pittsburgh has more than enough firepower to stay in the playoff picture.
4) New Jersey Devils
ANALYSIS: New Jersey is going to be much improved, adding a full forward line by drafting Jack Hughes first overall, acquiring Nikita Gusev from Vegas and signing Wayne Simmonds. The Devils also landed P.K. Subban from Nashville to legitimize their defence. Those are four additions without any subtractions from last season’s roster. The Devils are looking deep up front — look out for Jesper Bratt and Jesper Boqvist as well — and their defence is looking a lot better on paper too. The goaltending remains the same, with New Jersey hoping that Cory Schneider’s late-season resurgence can carry over and that Mackenzie Blackwood can channel his inner Jordan Binnington. Taylor Hall has to be happy with his supporting cast and he should be back among the league’s leading scorers providing he stays healthy. That is all good news for John Hynes and Ray Shero, who is turning New Jersey into a contender one move at a time. This season should be a step in that direction, with the Devils returning to the playoffs.
5) Carolina Hurricanes
ANALYSIS: Carolina overachieved in advancing to the Eastern Conference final last season, though many feel that was a sign of things to come for the Hurricanes. It could be, this team is solid on paper and has a promising prospect pool, but the Hurricanes will be in a big-time battle to make the playoffs again. They could build off that run, but they could also regress a little. Carolina could go either way. This is still a bubble team, more so than a true contender. It’s never wise to bet against Rod Brind’Amour and Justin Williams could return at some point — like Mike Fisher did for Nashville a couple years ago — but the competition is going to be fierce. The Hurricanes need a repeat performance from Petr Mrazek — with help from James Reimer in goal — and they need the new additions of Jake Gardiner, Ryan Dzingel and Joel Edmundson to fit in and match the contributions of Justin Faulk, Micheal Ferland and Calvin de Haan. Providing that happens, Carolina will be in the running for a wild-card berth again.
6) New York Rangers
ANALYSIS: The Rangers are yet another team on the rise, with their rebuild benefitting from Artemi Panarin and Jacob Trouba’s desire to play in New York. They also lucked out in the draft lottery to select Kaapo Kakko second overall. But credit where credit is due, Jeff Gorton has made a lot of good moves in a relatively short time to ensure the Rangers have a bright future. This is likely going to be the league’s youngest team with a ton of upside this season. But can all that youth add up to a playoff team so soon? Perhaps with Henrik Lundqvist rejuvenated in goal, but a lot would have to go right for the Rangers to reach the postseason. They won’t be a pushover and they will be all kinds of fun to watch, but it probably won’t equate to enough wins — not unless they hit the ground running, with all those new faces finding instant chemistry.
7) New York Islanders
ANALYSIS: The Islanders were last season’s biggest overachievers, rallying around the loss of John Tavares and buying into Barry Trotz’s defensive system. The results spoke for themselves — exceeding all expectations by making the playoffs and then making short work of the Penguins — but that will be tough to repeat despite returning much the same roster this season. The Islanders are arguably a little better on paper, with Semyon Varlamov replacing Robin Lehner in goal, Derick Brassard replacing Valtteri Filppula as third-line centre, and the potential for 2018 first-rounder Noah Dobson to make an immediate impact on defence. So the question becomes, how much did this team overachieve by last season? Five wins? Ten wins? That is difficult to quantify, but everyone can admit the Islanders overachieved to some degree. It could happen again, they could finish a few spots higher than this in the sure to be tight standings — certainly ahead of the rival Rangers — and possibly squeak into the playoffs. That said, I’m betting on a bit of regression here.
8) Columbus Blue Jackets
ANALYSIS: Columbus is depleted after going all-in on last season, making the playoffs and finally winning a round for what amounted to a successful campaign. The list of departures is lengthy, but John Tortorella doesn’t sound defeated and won’t be conceding any wins to the bookies who are betting against the Blue Jackets this season. Tortorella will be preaching an underdog mentality and if the players relish that role as much as he does, the Blue Jackets could be this year’s Islanders. However, a top-10 pick is the more likely outcome for Columbus based on the current roster. Goaltending is the biggest concern — with the unproven pairing of Joonas Korpisalo and Elvis Merzlikins — and scoring could be hard to come by unless rookies Alexandre Texier and Emil Bemstrom can combine for more than 30 goals. That is a lot to ask, but those are the kind of contributions that Columbus will need to stay in contention for a wild-card spot. Oliver Bjorkstrand needs to break out and Alexander Wennberg needs to bounce back. The defence should continue to be a strength for Columbus, with Seth Jones and Zach Werenski just entering their prime. But the Blue Jackets won’t get enough offence from the defence to offset all those losses up front. So if the goaltending is mediocre — as anticipated — this will be a losing season for Columbus.
Final Thoughts
For the record, I’m not a Leafs fan. I’m an unbiased media member who grew up on the prairies in a family of Oilers fans and has now spent the better part of a decade in B.C. surrounded by friends cheering on the Canucks.
With that full disclosure, I can’t believe I’m predicting Toronto to win the Stanley Cup — a team that hasn’t even won a playoff round in 15 years, dating back to 2004, and is now marred in the league’s longest championship drought after St. Louis shed that title this spring. It would be ironic for the Leafs to end their misery against the Blues, but it will have been 52 seasons between Cups — and 53 years for those counting. Finally, the hockey world will be able to stop referencing 1967 in 2020.
Mike Babcock will live up to his billing as the league’s best coach, Kyle Dubas will be commended for keeping his core together at whatever cost to win, and Auston Matthews will keep his pants on in celebration while growing as a leader and cementing his legacy in that city by capturing the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP.
Looking at the playoff picture, I have four different teams from last season, with Chicago replacing Winnipeg in the West and Florida, Philadelphia and New Jersey replacing Carolina, the New York Islanders and Columbus in the East. Of those four, I’m feeling most confident about Florida — largely for the Quenneville factor — while Winnipeg was the hardest to leave out considering all that firepower the Jets have up front.
Lastly, as Leafs’ fans are revelling in my prediction and already planning a second consecutive parade in Toronto after the Raptors won their first NBA championship this year, I’d like to remind them one more time that despite missing the playoffs in 12 of the last 13 years, Edmonton has still won more rounds than Toronto over that span — with a whopping total of one series victory. That will be the last time I’m able to serve humble pie in my preseason predictions.
Feel free to agree or disagree and share your predictions in the comments below.