Continuing our countdown of top unrestricted free agents for 2024 by position group, we move on to wingers. This is where the strength of the 2024 UFA class lies, with plenty of star talent and high-impact players to be found at the top of the class. Let’s look at the five best free-agent wingers available in 2024.
5. Patrick Kane
There was some uncertainty about how Patrick Kane would look this season after having hip resurfacing surgery last offseason. As it turns out, the procedure worked, as Kane looked like his old self for the most part. He totaled 20 goals and 47 points in 50 games with the Detroit Red Wings, a 33-goal, 77-point pace over 82 games.
Kane’s underlying numbers also saw some substantial improvement, as his overall play was worth a total goals above replacement (GAR) of 5.4. Even his defensive game, which had been a complete liability in the previous few seasons, was passable; his even-strength defense was worth a GAR of 0.4.
Related: Top 5 NHL Free Agents for 2024 — Defensemen
Evolving Hockey has Kane signing a one-year deal at a cap hit of $2.468 million, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he got some term from some team, even though he’s 35. Larry Brooks of the New York Post reported the New York Rangers are interested in Kane, so perhaps a reunion is in the cards. They’re one team I could see handing him a two- or three-year deal, which would probably come with a cap hit of $5-6 million. But based on his play this season, he’d still be worth that price.
4. Jonathan Marchessault
Jonathan Marchessault is coming off a career year that saw him total 42 goals and 69 points in 82 games. He probably won’t produce 42 goals again since he hasn’t done it in his career before, but he’s shown that he can consistently pot 30 goals and 60 points in a top-six role.
Marchessault’s overall game has been worth a GAR of 20.3 over the last three seasons, with most of his value unsurprisingly coming on offense. He’s been among the most efficient five-on-five goal scorers in the NHL over the previous three seasons, averaging 1.09 goals per 60 minutes. That’s the same rate as William Nylander and better than Jake Guentzel, Artemi Panarin and Alex Ovechkin, to name a few wingers.
It will be interesting to see what kind of contract Marchessault gets in free agency. He’s 34, so I wouldn’t expect much term. One comparable is Claude Giroux, who signed a three-year deal with the Ottawa Senators worth $6.5 million annually. Evolving Hockey has Marchessault signing for three years and a cap hit of $6.907 million, so that seems like a decent comp. Given his goal-scoring prowess and veteran experience, teams should be lining up to sign him for a contract similar to Giroux’s.
3. Steven Stamkos
We’ve seen this dance with Steven Stamkos and the Tampa Bay Lightning before back in 2016, but as of this writing, he remains unsigned and headed for free agency on Monday. He had another strong year, finishing with 40 goals and 81 points in 79 games, and likely has one last payday coming.
Stamkos’ impacts have declined significantly at five-on-five over the last couple of years, but his shot still makes him a scoring threat at that game state. He’s averaged 0.96 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five over the last three seasons, the same rate as Andrei Svechnikov and slightly better than teammate Nikita Kucherov. And he’s still very much a threat to score on the power play.
Stamkos seems like the type of player who should remain a Lightning for life, but if not, he makes the free-agent class that much more interesting. Evolving Hockey has him signing for three years and a cap hit of $8.443 million with a different team. He will probably keep declining from here on out, so there’s risk in signing him, even if it’s only for three years. But his shooting ability and reputation will likely appeal to teams if he is available on July 1.
2. Sam Reinhart
Sam Reinhart had the season of his life, scoring 57 goals and 94 points in 82 games and raising the Stanley Cup with the Florida Panthers, who defeated the Oilers in seven games in the Final. Now, a payday awaits Reinhart, and it will be a significant one, whether it’s with the Panthers or not.
Reinhart shot 24.5 percent this season, an unsustainably high number that strongly suggests he will not score 57 goals again next season. Still, he is a highly productive player. He had totaled 33 and 31 goals with the Panthers in his previous two seasons and was even a point-per-game player in 2021-22.
The problem is that even though Reinhart will still be a productive player next season, he will almost certainly get overpaid by some team. Evolving Hockey has him signing a seven-year deal at a cap hit of $10.93 million. Will he be worth that kind of money if he regresses to be a 30-35 goal scorer and maybe 70-80-point player? Probably not, and that’s why he’s at No. 2 on this list and not No. 1.
1. Jake Guentzel
Guentzel has been one of the most consistent wingers in the league throughout his NHL career, and he’s about to get his payday. He finished the 2023-24 season with 30 goals and 77 points in 67 games — a 94-point pace over 82 games. Over the last three seasons, he’s averaged 39 goals and 87 points per 82 games.
Sticking with the last three seasons, Guentzel has been one of the most efficient five-on-five scorers in the league, averaging 2.29 points per 60 minutes. Like Marchessault, he’s also been one of the best five-on-five goal scorers, averaging 1.07 goals per 60 minutes. His consistent production strongly suggests he’s the best winger available in free agency this year.
Signing Guentzel will not come cheap, as Evolving Hockey has him earning a seven-year deal at a cap hit of $9.678 million. Not many teams can afford that this offseason, even with the salary cap ceiling rising to $88 million, so it’ll be interesting to see where he ends up. But any team that signs Guentzel will get an immediate and significant upgrade to their top six.
2024 Is the Year To Be Looking for a Winger
These five wingers may be the best available this year, but there is plenty of depth behind them. Wingers like Anthony Duclair, Jake DeBrusk, Tyler Bertuzzi, Teuvo Teravainen, and Tyler Toffoli are all UFAs, and that’s just scratching the surface. If you need an upgrade on the wing this offseason, this is the right time to shop for one.
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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey
