Free agency is a little less than two weeks away, and there should be plenty of fireworks when the market opens on July 1. This looks like a relatively strong free-agent class, so let’s look at some of the best players available by position group, starting with centers.
5. Chandler Stephenson
The Vegas Golden Knights have a cap logjam to handle this summer, so someone will likely be a cap casualty. One potential loss could be Chandler Stephenson, who’s spent the last four and a half seasons with the Golden Knights.
Stephenson finished with 16 goals and 51 points in 75 games in 2023-24 and has averaged 63 points per 82 games over the last three seasons, so he’s probably due for a healthy pay raise from his current $2.75 million cap hit.
Stephenson’s counting totals look solid, but underneath the hood, there are some red flags. His microstats fell off a cliff this past season, and so did his impacts. His playmaking metrics were solid, but his shooting dried up; he finished with just 97 shots on goal. His skating, which is his strength, still graded out well, so perhaps it was just a down year:
Any team that needs a center will likely have Stephenson on their list of UFA targets. Evolving Hockey has him signing a four-year deal at a cap hit of $6.133 million, so there’s that previously mentioned pay raise. At worst, he can play a third-line center role effectively, but if his 2023-24 season is just a down year, he could be an effective second-line center at $6.133 million annually.
4. Elias Lindholm
Elias Lindholm is one of the most fascinating UFAs for me this offseason. He will get paid, but there’s also the potential for him to land one of the worst contracts of the summer. His production and impacts have fallen off dramatically since he posted 40-plus goals and 80-plus points in 2021-22.
Lindholm finished this season with just 15 goals and 44 points in 75 games. He was better for the Vancouver Canucks during the playoffs, but I wouldn’t get fooled by that. There are more red flags than green flags, so teams should proceed with caution when pursuing him in free agency, especially with what he projects to earn.
Related: 10 NHL Free Agents Who Could Be Bargains in 2024
Evolving Hockey has Lindholm signing a seven-year deal at a cap hit of $7.962 million. That’s a lot of money for someone coming off a 44-point season and has declined the last two seasons. That’s first-line center money, and I don’t think he’s that type of pivot anymore.
Still, I think Lindholm can help a team that already has some pieces that could complement his game well. Fit will matter for him more than most UFAs, which is why the Boston Bruins might make sense if they see him pairing up well with David Pastrnak. But it will come at a pretty penny.
3. Sean Monahan
Sean Monahan was one of the feel-good stories of the 2023-24 NHL season. After struggling with injuries for numerous years, he was most healthy this season and highly productive, finishing with 26 goals and 59 points in 83 games between the Montreal Canadiens and Winnipeg Jets. He looked more like the Sean Monahan who had productive seasons with the Calgary Flames.
Most of Monahan’s underlying numbers this season were solid, too. He finished with a goals above replacement (GAR) of 9.6, the most value he’s provided to a team since 2018-19 when he finished with a GAR of 12.2 with the Flames. He was a relatively efficient five-on-five scorer, averaging 1.84 points per 60 minutes, a rate you like to see from a second- or third-line center.
Health has always been the issue with Monahan, not talent. We know he can be a highly productive player when healthy, and if he maintains that moving forward, he might be able to repeat the season he just had. Evolving Hockey has Monahan landing a three-year deal at a cap hit of $5.276 million. There’s obviously some risk in that because of his injury history, but that’s a fair price for him. Compared to someone like Lindholm, Monahan may be the wiser option in free agency.
2. Adam Henrique
Adam Henrique has been around for a long time, but he hasn’t shown much signs of slowing down yet. He finished this season with 24 goals and 51 points in 82 games between the Anaheim Ducks and Edmonton Oilers. His production slowed down a bit with the Oilers (nine points in 22 games), but six of those were goals, which comes out to a pace of 23 goals over 82 games.
Henrique does a bit of everything. He scores goals, kills penalties and can play center or left wing. His faceoff numbers are also solid, as he’s won 53.1 percent of his draws over the last three seasons. He can play on a team’s second power-play unit, and he’s a solid five-on-five scorer, as he’s averaged 1.94 points per 60 minutes over the last three seasons.
I have Henrique at number two because he should provide plenty of value for what he projects to sign for this summer; Evolving Hockey has him landing a three-year deal at a cap hit of $4.769 million. If he continues to maintain being a 24-goal, 51-point player, signing him for less than $5 million per year would likely lead to a team getting the most bang for their buck. He does turn 35 in February, so you never know when his play could start declining. But there are no signs of that yet, so he could be a great addition for a team looking to shore up their middle six.
1. Matt Duchene
Matt Duchene played the 2023-24 season on a one-year, $3 million contract after getting bought out by the Nashville Predators last summer, but that’s unlikely to be the case next season. He finished 2023-24 with 25 goals and 65 points in 80 games for the Dallas Stars, so he still appears to be a legit top-six option.
Duchene was a highly efficient five-on-five scorer this season, averaging 2.19 points per 60 minutes. He was a perfect fit for the Stars since they already had Roope Hintz centering the top line, so he fit in almost seamlessly as the team’s second-line center. He even played some wing, which will likely appeal to any team planning to target him on July 1.
While I like what Duchene offers, he projects to land a three-year deal at a cap hit of $7.070 million. I don’t love that cap hit, though three years makes it more palatable. Still, he looks like the best center in this year’s free-agent class. The Stars would probably like to keep him if they can, but that may be easier said than done, given 1) his price and 2) he should have his fair share of suitors if he makes it to July 1.
No Star Centers, But Depth Is Available
The center market isn’t the strongest this year, but some quality middle-six options could help shore up a team’s center depth. Even outside the five mentioned here, players like Alexander Wennberg, Jack Roslovic and Tyler Johnson could fill out bottom-six roles. There’s center depth to be had in free agency this year.
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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey
