The Edmonton Oilers’ window to win a Stanley Cup is right now as Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and several other key players are signed on great deals. That being said, not only does Ken Holland have to think about taking advantage of the next few seasons while this team is intact, but he also has to have an eye on the future and ensure that any contract he gives out doesn’t hurt the team in the long run either as the hope is they will still be going deep into playoffs for many years.
That being said, two contracts have yet to be decided on, those of restricted free agents (RFA) Evan Bouchard and Ryan McLeod. There’s no feasible way to get both locked up long-term and remain under the cap this season which is the problem. While Bouchard is coming off of his entry-level contract and has more than proven he is worth the investment long-term, McLeod took a very low AAV (average annual value) team-friendly deal last summer to push the Oilers’ problems to now. That way of thinking is again what will have to happen for the Oilers as they will inevitably have to sign both to two to three-year bridge deals at a lower AAV and then be hit with a much larger cap hit with both being breakout candidates.
The reason that it would be so attractive to get Bouchard and McLeod signed to five-plus year deals is because of the salary cap potentially rising by quite a bit next year and beyond, the deals will quickly take up a much lower percentage of the total team cap than if new deals are negotiated after the salary cap has already risen significantly. This has become a trend with teams locking young players up with hardly any NHL experience so that it can end up being a massive win for the team, and the young player gets security and can just develop and play. On 32 Thoughts: The Podcast, Elliotte Friedman revealed some information about Bouchard’s possible extension saying, “one or two years…I’ve heard two years, between $3.5-4 million.”
What the Best Outcome for the Oilers is Within Reason
Since Friedman has heard two years for Bouchard, that just means Holland knows exactly what he’s doing. Two years gives the Oilers that much time to make something happen in the playoffs and between two to three years is the absolute sweet spot for the Oilers. Many key contracts expire in 2025 and 2026 that could free up the necessary cap space to sign Bouchard to a big contract.
If two years is what is settled on, by then, the contracts of Draisaitl, Cody Ceci, and Warren Foegele will all be up along with the $1.916 million the Oilers are paying James Neal not to play for them. That’s nearly $16.5 million to work with, and the assumption is that only Draisaitl will be sticking around.
If the Oilers can get a three-year bridge deal done for Bouchard and McLeod, that gives them the cap space from those expired contracts I mentioned above, as well as the contracts of Mattias Ekholm, Stuart Skinner, Evander Kane, and Brett Kulak to work with as well. That is quite a bit of planning ahead, but that’s how far general managers must look when considering contract extensions. Most of the time when players are signed for eight years and a high AAV while in their prime, it doesn’t end well near the end of the contract for either party.
There is another factor that can play nicely for the Oilers in freeing up more cap space than already mentioned. It’s Jack Campbell. If the two young players are re-signed for only one year, Campbell still has three years remaining on his deal. But if the Oilers can get Bouchard and McLeod under contract for two-three, that means there are only 1-2 years left on Campbell’s deal, the percentage of the cap that contract takes up is much smaller, and the contract is then much easier to move and won’t cost multiple first-round picks/valuable assets. For a team like the Oilers, who project to be close to or at the salary cap every year because they are competing for Stanley Cups, every little bit of room helps them. Of course, the Oilers want to avoid another Darnell Nurse size contract, but it might not be avoidable.
Related: Grading the Oilers’ Start to 2023 Free Agency
I don’t believe any offer sheets are to worry about on the Oilers’ end, as the teams typically require cap space, draft picks, and an opportunity for the player they’re trying to take. The Oilers present a great opportunity for both Bouchard and McLeod. Bouchard gets to man the best power play in the league, while McLeod gets third-line minutes with potential room to move up shortly. The key factor in an offer sheet is the player signing it. With a team like the Oilers have, there aren’t many better places to play right now.
The Oilers would be smart to stagger Bouchard and McLeod this time and get each of them signed for two years at minimum because big seasons are expected from both of them. If Bouchard gets locked up for $3.5-4 million AAV and McLeod gets $1.5-2, that gives the Oilers their last bit of cap space to sign one last depth forward to be set. There is more panic than there should be around the Oilers this offseason regarding these signings. Holland has built a winning team that is right on the cusp of climbing to the top of the mountain, and there’s a ton of evidence he knows what he’s doing when it comes to signing players to team-friendly deals.