The Edmonton Oilers are set for a busy week with the NHL Entry Draft and free agency coming up. They might not hold their first, third, fourth, or fifth-round picks this year, but that doesn’t mean something big can’t go down multiple different ways. The Oilers are running out of time to make a decision on one of their players, could make a couple of trades, and are looking to bring in the right pieces in free agency. There’s a fair deal to discuss, so let’s dive in.
Will Yamamoto Be Traded or Bought Out?
The first and most pressing order of business is figuring out what to do with Kailer Yamamoto. It has become abundantly clear that he will not be back with the team next season due to cap constraints and lack of production. But there are two courses of action the Oilers can take, one more ideal than the other.
The buyout window is currently open and the Oilers have until June 30 to buy out Yamamoto’s $3.1 million average annual value (AAV) contract. He has just one year left on the deal, so they would save $2.667 million in 2023-24 but still have $433,334 on the books. They would also have to pay $533,334 the following season, but the cap is expected to rise more significantly by then. They need every bit of cap space they can get, so this isn’t the better option for them.
Trading Yamamoto with no salary retention is the option the Oilers hope comes to pass. They appear to be close to a deal, but who knows if it could fall through. His value has definitely gone down with his lack of production while playing with some of the best players in the world. Teams also know that the Oilers are desperate to clear cap space. Regardless, he should still hold some value, even if it is a mid-level prospect or mid-round draft pick. I hope general manager Ken Holland isn’t against giving the winger up for nothing if that’s what it comes to.
What Do the Oilers Do With Their 2nd Round Pick?
The Oilers have a few ways to utilize their only draft pick in the first five rounds this year. The first potential way is to actually use it. Holland has done well drafting since he arrived in Edmonton, especially with players picked outside of the first round. They don’t pick in the second round very often, but the team’s last two selections were Raphael Lavoie and Ryan McLeod. They have the 56th overall pick this year and could still get a pretty good player at that position.
The other thing the Oilers can do with their second-round pick is trade it, whether that be to acquire someone or move someone out. The former is much more likely than the latter. If they make a trade to bring in reinforcements on the wing or on defence, it could add the final bit of value to execute said trade. They have been linked to various bigger-named players with decent-sized cap hits, so retaining cap in a trade might involve using the second-rounder (from “Top drawer winger to the Edmonton Oilers? Hmm”, Edmonton Journal, June 13, 2023).
Does Edmonton Move Ceci and/or Foegele?
While Yamamoto is the obvious choice for the Oilers to move, there are two others with cap hits that would help the team out a bit if they were off the books – Cody Ceci and Warren Foegele. While they would have to address the right side of their defence further if Ceci is moved, the team would seemingly have a few million dollars to do so and he and Darnell Nurse cannot be defence partners again next season. It just didn’t work out well at all for the Oilers in the playoffs and despite how much money Nurse makes per season, he needs a presence like what Mattias Ekholm is to Evan Bouchard.
Foegele is the tougher sell but seems to be the player that teams are actually interested in after his strong playoff performance. Since it’s less of a question of if the Oilers will make the postseason and more of a question of how far they will go, the team can’t afford to be moving players who performed in meaningful games. It is well known that the top-six doesn’t have nearly as many problems scoring as the bottom-six, and the Oilers have had a problem with a lack of depth for a while. I believe that Edmonton keeps Foegele for the final year of his contract and considers keeping him around longer than that depending on how the next season goes.
Which Free Agent(s) Do the Oilers Sign?
With a spot on the right wing of the second line most likely open, the Oilers have been heavily linked to one player in particular to fill that role, Connor Brown. After a near season-long injury in 2022-23, his value will be lower and affordable for the Oilers. He has also personally stated that his main goal is to win and Connor McDavid and the Oilers are going to accomplish that eventually. It all just seems to line up too perfectly for Brown to join the Oilers and slot into a top-six role on the right side.
Related: Insider Believes Oilers the Frontrunner to Sign Connor Brown
Brown is actually very durable and his injury this season should be seen as a fluke. His goals-per-game and points-per-game are respectable, especially considering he hasn’t played with elite talent like he would if he joined the Oilers’ top-six. He can really do it all and works hard, so bringing him in on a one or two-year deal would benefit Edmonton greatly.
With the top-six wing covered if Brown is signed, who else could the Oilers get for value? Perhaps they will bring in a veteran depth forward for close to league-minimum. Derek Ryan already signed a two-year deal with the Oilers, but it looks like the likes of Nick Bjugstad, Mattias Janmark, and Devin Shore are on their way out. There are some fairly good options to choose from in the free agency market like Jonathan Toews, Paul Stastny, and more.
If Ceci is moved, I think it is more likely the Oilers address that hole through a trade to get a reduced cap hit rather than sign someone in free agency. Otherwise, they will be very much against the cap. There’s reasoning and potential to upgrade the third pairing on the right side over Vincent Desharnais. He is suitable to be the seventh defenceman, but not higher. The Oilers don’t have a lot of cap space, but there are veteran players like Erik Johnson who would have a cap hit of $750,000 like Desharnais.
Holland and the Oilers’ management have a lot to think about and some moves to make with limited space. There’s no doubt that he can get creative, and he will certainly have to this offseason to push the Oilers over the hump and win a Stanley Cup in the near future.