The Edmonton Oilers may have started the season on a down note, but their analytics show that they will soon turn things around in a big way. I still think of them as Stanley Cup contenders since it’s very early in the season. The team has been very limited this season with a lack of cap space. They have enough for a 21-man roster and a little bit left over, but no more.
It has hurt the Oilers even more when someone gets injured, and it isn’t long enough to place them on the LTIR. Just sitting out a few games shortens the roster even further, and the cap hit of that player continues to count against the cap. Accruing cap space is very important for teams that are against the cap, like the Oilers are. According to PuckPedia, with the current cap space available, the Oilers will be able to fit a cap hit of $775,000 on the roster by day 98 of the season, or $1.8 million at the trade deadline.
This gives the Oilers two or more key dates to keep an eye on and prepare for to help their team. Sam Gagner was just signed to a $775,000 annual average value (AAV) deal, so if he doesn’t stick with the Oilers for the first few months of the season, he could be called back up to the team as the 13th forward later. The Oilers aren’t as limited as you may think with this small amount of cap space. Though it isn’t a lot to work with, the team can choose one of five decisions to make.
Call Up Lavoie or Add 13th Forward
What so many in Oil Country want is to see Raphael Lavoie called up and inserted into the lineup. He has been playing at a torrid pace, and it’s only a matter of time. The Oilers are lucky nobody grabbed him off of waivers at the end of training camp, but you can guarantee someone will if he’s called up and sent back down again. I assume the team is waiting until they are absolutely sure or have a bit more cap space before calling up Lavoie for the first and only time.
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Though the Oilers need the scoring and could use someone exactly like Lavoie, it would work best if he came in on the third line or higher. If an injury doesn’t get him called up, his cap hit is a bit higher than $775,000, so it would be later in the season when he would be recalled. That is somewhat on him for taking a higher payday this season.
Alternatively, the Oilers could call up someone making $775,000 or less earlier, but it would take away from the cap space being accrued. Forwards in the American Hockey League (AHL) with a cap hit of this amount or less are Adam Erne, Brad Malone, Lane Pederson, Seth Griffith, Greg McKegg, and Drake Caggiula. This would only be to create some competition or serve as a short-term injury replacement.
Find Depth Scoring on the Market
If the Oilers want to wait, they would have a fair amount of cap space to work with at the trade deadline. They managed to find Nick Bjugstad on the market at the deadline and acquired him with a cap hit of only $450,000 (50 percent retained), but not everyone is that cheap. He was great for the team during his time in Edmonton, regardless. It is likely the Oilers go shopping at the deadline and look for some depth scoring to help them out. While players like Warren Foegele, Ryan McLeod, and Dylan Holloway have played very well so far, the latter two haven’t been able to find the scoresheet. This is what the Oilers need.
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Acquiring scoring for the bottom-six wouldn’t kick McLeod or Holloway out of the lineup, the Oilers are past doing that. What it would do is likely take Mattias Janmark or Derek Ryan out more often than not. There will be some strong options that the Oilers can have their pickings at, but other teams will also be on the hunt as well.
Make a Splash at the Trade Deadline
While the Oilers could go a bit smaller and find someone like Bjugstad for very cheap, they could also go and use up the entire $1.8 million, realistically a player with a cap hit of $3.6 million or around $7 million if a third team is involved. The Oilers have a great window to win this season and next, before they have to deal with some big contract extensions and higher salaries.
The more salary retention there is, and if another team is involved, this could be the splash Ken Holland goes for if his time as a general manager is coming to an end after his contract. Whether the Oilers do something involving their forwards, defense, or goaltending, there are a lot of possibilities.
Sign Key Free Agent
While you may have forgotten since the season is underway and there are no major headlines every day about them, a couple big named free agents are still able to be signed. The two the Oilers should have their eyes on are Patrick Kane and Phil Kessel.
Kane hasn’t fully recovered from his injury yet, but he is ramping it up in anticipation that teams will be looking to sign him. While his intentions aren’t clear yet, there are several teams he could choose to go to if those teams have interest and he isn’t out for money. The 34-year-old does have an estimated career earnings of over $115 million, according to CapFriendly. He does also have three Stanley Cups, but the drive to win usually outweighs the search for more money for successful veterans. Kane has information of how it is in Edmonton from Duncan Keith in 2021-22, and I bet it’s all positive.
Kessel has recently spoken out about the lack of interest in signing him and how he’s ready to play when someone is ready for him. If it’s depth scoring the Oilers need, Kessel is still fast and would fit in a speedy lineup, and he scored 14 goals and 36 points last season playing under 13 minutes a night. Kessel would come much cheaper, but Kane will make it work if he really does want to come to Edmonton.
Save Cap Space for Next Season
The final option the Oilers have with the cap space they will accrue is to save it and do nothing. If Connor Brown plays 10 games for the Oilers this season, it costs the Oilers $3.25 million. If, at the end of the season, the Oilers have the same amount of cap space as they do at this moment (around $430,000), then there will be an overage charge of $2.84 million to the cap next season. If the Oilers do nothing and have $1.8 million in cap space at the end of the season, the penalty to the cap next season is only $1.45 million.
I am not in any way suggesting that it is a good idea for the Oilers to sit back and do nothing. Every other contender will be doing something, so the Oilers have to as well to make their team better. As I noted, this is their ideal Stanley Cup window. The overage charge is something to worry about next season and might take care of itself with the cap potentially rising significantly.
There are a lot of interesting decisions that can be made this season for the Oilers. Although their hands seem tied at the moment, things are going to start getting better quickly, and the team should end the season on a positive note.